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Chris K

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Everything posted by Chris K

  1. Chris K
    Well, I am not sure, but the rain at least seems to be arriving earlier than what I expected this morning. Originally attending the Bristol Balloon Fiesta night glow tonight looked generally dry, but now looking at the radar and Ian F's latest "tweet"...rain is now likely at times. Looks like I am getting a bit damp! I blame the media. One particular paper as usual labelling it as "terrifying". We have had much, much worse in recent Summers.
  2. Chris K
    Yep, currently, most of the models suggest highest wind gusts will be seen along eastern coasts and eventually E & N Scotland. Gusts here could reach 50, maybe 60mph in exposed areas. SW areas looking more in the region of 30-40mph gusts (a bit higher perhaps on the coasts?). it will also depend how ex-Bertha continues to develop whilst crossing the UK.
  3. Chris K
    Sir! SIR! They're cheating!!
  4. Chris K
    Well, just for a laugh really as I can re-call quite a few times storms have had the centre pass over my area... I have marked the centre above the Bristol area come 1200hrs Sunday, with a pressure reading of 996mb. I will probably be wrong but why not have a go ey?
  5. Chris K
    It is the higher resolution model that you can access with the Netweather subscription or other providers.
  6. Chris K
    This is just a guess, but I would have thought it may be something to do with the positioning and strength of the Jet as it interacts with the disturbance/Low pressure system? As I said though...a pure guess.
  7. Chris K
    NOAA NWS Ocean National Hurricane Center's take on TS Bertha. "The 1500 UTC advisory from the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center indicates Tropical Storm Bertha will transition within the next 36 hours to a post-tropical storm force low while moving through the OPC's Offshore Waters and High Seas Area. Bertha is then expected to weaken slightly to a gale force low as it accelerates while turning towards the east. Bertha is forecast to reach the English Channel by Sunday as a 45 knot (52 mph or 83 km/h) gale force low. As a reminder, a storm force low is defined as winds from 48 to 63 knots (55 to 73 mph or 89 to 117 km/h), and a gale force low is defined as winds from 34 to 47 knots (39 to 54 mph or 63 to 87 km/h). What does it mean that "Bertha will transition to a post tropical low"? It means that Bertha will no longer be driven by organized convection as it becomes embedded in the frontal boundary to the north. Post-tropical Bertha will then be driven by vorticity advection from a mid-level (500 mb) trough, and also by thermal advection. Thermal advection is defined as (geostrophic) flow across a region with a temperature (density or thickness) contrast. Frontal boundaries typically denote the leading edge of an air mass or temperature contrast." http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml
  8. Chris K
    Cheers guys
  9. Chris K
    Hey all. There was a strange shaft of red light this morning in our town. Does anyone know what this might be? At a guess, people thought that it may be a rainbow being affected by the red sunrise we had?
  10. Chris K
    If you live near Stroud/Gloucester sort of area...I think it is heading your way...literally non stop booms of thunder as it starts to head off.
  11. Chris K
    Oh wow...the wind has picked up big time and I think I can see rotation in the clouds above...I am going to try get some pictures/video but is a bit difficult surrounded by tall houses. Edit: Now hail and torrential rain, frequent lightning...constant rumbles of thunder....insane!!!
  12. Chris K
    Yep can hear rumbles now - Strikes detected a few miles down the road at Aust next to the Old Severn Crossing.
  13. Chris K
    It kind of looks like heading my way directly..but most strikes are staying to the West over the Severn Estuary.
  14. Chris K
    You watch it fire up as it heads into the Midlands
  15. Chris K
    Oh hello i came on just to see any chances over the next week and I see that heading my way... what a surprise if it keeps going!
  16. Chris K
    Really dark skies to my North - those showers are pushing across but don't think much will happen other than a quick sharp downpour. What is nice though is a sudden strong breeze has picked up...
  17. Chris K
    Cell trundling through Devon heading N/NE...not sure if it'll last into the W Country/SE Wales though as lightning detection appears sporadic. Any reports down there?
  18. Chris K
    More activity being detected from the cell South of Bristol so a direct hit possible here? Although not as much as what is happening towards Swindon...wow!
  19. Chris K
    Yep - still some T&L up here just to my North. Brilliant stuff. Like you said, looks like there is some activity still coming up from the SE of Bristol.
  20. Chris K
    Likely to be the one passing me now! All headed up towards the Forest of Dean. Have had a few flashes and deep thunder but calming down now.
  21. Chris K
    Us lot around Bristol better make the most of these couple of days! Might be our last storms for 5 years
  22. Chris K
    Rumbles of thunder coming up from Bristol....I may have got home from Snowdon just in time!
  23. Chris K
    Very humid here and more downpours approaching from the South...hopefully the lightning makes it as well!
  24. Chris K
    I KNEW IT. The one night I am away and Bristol gets hit. Then the rainy mass hits me coming home on the m5...absolutely atrocious conditions but no thundery activity. *shakes fist at sky*
  25. Chris K
    Come on....is it seriously dying down close to Bristol yet again....can see flashes far to the East so looks like another near miss
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