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Chris K

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Everything posted by Chris K

  1. Chris K
    Ah but you can see the cold front...cells are initiating along it when its hitting the unstable air. It looks good for many currently. You can almost draw the straight line from off the coast of Wales down to the English channel
  2. Chris K
    Imagine what it might be like later for the Midlands etc....
  3. Chris K
    South Wales to...its close. The cold front must be starting to engage with the unstable airmass nicely now.
  4. Chris K
    I might take up a different hobby if it bloody does that again...
  5. Chris K
    *crosses fingers* Don't die out just before Bristol Mr Storm...
  6. Chris K
    If those cells in the channel keep developing nicely, a large portion of C/S England as well as the W.Country could be in business.
  7. Chris K
    I'm going to see how the storms get on as they begin to cross the Channel then decide from there
  8. Chris K
    Looks about right to me shaky! Matches quite well with Met Office for its positioning at 0100.
  9. Chris K
    Several ciders...that's enough to make me bifurcate for sure!
  10. Chris K
    Indeed - Met Office has showers/storms initiating over the Channel in a couple of hours...not sure if it is linked to the ones currently moving through France because it shows them appearing from nothing. Not to be taken as gospel of course, but that is my current focus to see how things might pan out after.
  11. Chris K
    An update on Facebook from Stuart over at UKWF: Good evening, Elevated storms have fired over the Bay of Biscay and western France tonight, we expect this activity to continue throughout the night and impact the southern coastal areas of, Devon, Dorset, and Hampshire during the early hours before moving north/north westwards affecting Wales, Midlands and the northwest of England. The South East from west Sussex eastwards should expect similar activity to arrive a little later on, say from around 7am, this activity will also take a north/north easterly path affecting much of the South East, East Anglia, East Midlands and Lincolnshire during the morning. As is the nature of thunderstorms, some areas will escape this activity, however, areas that are affected can expect some torrential rainfall, frequent lightning, gusty winds and in some cases moderate sized hail.
  12. Chris K
    TORRO's forecast http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php
  13. Chris K
    https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.netweather.stormradar
  14. Chris K
    As long as it doesn't cause it to do the classic "I'm tired of this lets cut myself into two and part ways" because I know where the dry gap would end up going
  15. Chris K
    Cautiously excited after seeing how fast things have exploded down in Cornwall... As I just posted in the convective thread, this is UKWF's take on things... "Good evening, As expected, we already have thunderstorms firing across Cornwall. During the remainder of tonight and into the early hours of tomorrow morning, further thunderstorms will affect southern coastal areas of England (moving inland), SW England, Bristol channel regions and parts of Wales (possibly extending in to Cheshire). We expect a mainly elevated display (cloud to cloud discharge and inner cloud). High rainfall rates may lead to localised flash flooding and large hail is also a risk. A full update on tomorrows situation will come later this evening. Lewis"
  16. Chris K
    UKWF's take on things as posted on their Facebook page just now. "Good evening, As expected, we already have thunderstorms firing across Cornwall. During the remainder of tonight and into the early hours of tomorrow morning, further thunderstorms will affect southern coastal areas of England (moving inland), SW England, Bristol channel regions and parts of Wales (possibly extending in to Cheshire). We expect a mainly elevated display (cloud to cloud discharge and inner cloud). High rainfall rates may lead to localised flash flooding and large hail is also a risk. A full update on tomorrows situation will come later this evening. Lewis"
  17. Chris K
    Sferic detected SE of Cornwall - it looks so lonely! Edit: A few more have shown up in last few minutes. Cells growing rather quickly down there...
  18. Chris K
    Yea I'd say so - 22.7 here and 53% humidity and I live about 10 miles North of Bristol, so makes sense to be slightly less here.
  19. Chris K
    Sorry
  20. Chris K
    AWD pretty much just summed up what i think may happen for our region **IF** things develop nicely to our South and along the trough feature and/or cold front. Definitely a lighting tracker watching night for me coming up if something does get going. I love these sort of setups but it usually means a yawn fest the day after! For us W Country folk, I expect Ian F's forecast tonight will determine our chances as he always seems to be on the ball with his knowledge and presentation
  21. Chris K
    Remember rainfall forecasts aren't always a great tool to forecast where storms will be. The last belter of a storm I had was 9th May 2008 from a slow moving cold front hitting a warm air mass to the East. If I remember rightly, the rainfall itself lasted about 15-30 minutes torrential before leaving a 2 hour light show with no further rain (It being dark probably helped)
  22. Chris K
    Yes you are right for areas further SW. But for the W Country such as Bristol, Gloucestershire etc it was looking quite good for breakfast time Saturday. It really will be a case of watching developments as they happen. Personally I am keeping my expectations low but if we do see something it will be a bonus
  23. Chris K
    Sorry but I am on my mobile. Compared to yesterday, I see downgrades for the SW with a bit of an extra NE shift in emphasis on storms - but that is my interpretation and happy for people to say otherwise. The Met Office fax charts show the cold front to pass most of the SW earlier than what was shown yesterday.The High res NMM model early this morning and the Met Office rainfall didn't look inspiring for the SW either, with the best developments exploding after it has passed our regions. With the BBC, Met Office and model rainfall charts contradicting each other a bit, this is my only positive feeling that uncertainty still remains. Yes it will change but I am still skeptical. I feel the best chances for seeing thundery activity in the SW are actually overnight now like AWD has said. It's all well and good that MLCAPE is looking good for areas overnight but time and time again I have seen nothing develop from this. This setup is all too familiar in my opinion. i agree with TEITS marked drawing of where he thinks the best chances are.
  24. Chris K
    I may be wrong but looking at the model updates this morning chances of storms for the SW quadrant of the UK have been reduced a fair bit. The cold front doesn't seem to engage with the available energy until its into the Midlands with the SE and E and NE looking good at this time. Will see what the updates show later...
  25. Chris K
    That agrees with the high resolution 4km NMM quite nicely right now for 1500hrs Saturday. Very very similar. High levels of SBCAPE explodes from the W Country and C/S England around 0900 and grows N, NE and E from there through the day, with more stable air arriving behind the cold front. Currently the heaviest precipitation actually moves NW along the surface wind convergence line moving through Wales and up towards SW Scotland, also trailing across C/E England. However storms also likely to form in those high CAPE regions in the afternoon, if as AJ said, there isn't any crud looming over those areas. My personal feeling is the further South and West you are, better chances are early in the morning when the front trails through, but as ever it'll be a case of watching the radars and skies on the day itself. Will be interesting to see what the higher resolution models show tomorrow night...
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