Chris K

Indeed...hopefully we may catch something tomorrow...we'll see. Looks a tad more promising but still rather hit and miss.

Haha looks like its fizzling away just as its about to reach here...

Lightning to my east in the distance!

Directly towards me! But lightning activity seems to be fading gradually on radars?

Ohhh I like the look of that storm to my SE...I think it may run just that tad too far North of here and it would need to keep its energy. Fingers crossed!

As we move closer the trough seems to be getting modeled to affect us less and less, with a reinforcement of the current pattern even being hinted.... a way to go yet though.

Indeed...tasty Sept charts....but still too far out for my liking. A day or two ago showed thundery showers moving up mid-next week, but now it has been pushed back more towards the end of next week. But...currently there at least seems to be some agreement that the trough will slowly edge closer...it will then depend on whether it weakens too much before it finally gets here.

Indeed...if the outputs continue to show this it could be quite an interesting period! I cannot remember the last time I've had thunderstorms in September in my area to be honest.

Wonder if we are about to enter autumn on a thundery note...some of the charts look promising for a bit of a humid, showery breakdown... ...although we need to get there first!

Yes I think that's what I mean by saying its boring. I also like variety but seeing that trough stuck to our SW hardly moving makes me claw at the screen haha. I want it to edge and and perhaps give us some thundery potential before the main "season" for storms draws to a close. As legritter said though..it is very nice out at the moment and a great time to make the most of it!

Don't get me wrong, the settled weather is pleasant enough... But what a boring period of model watching....the pattern just looks so static in the operational outputs. Wake me up in a week or two hah...

The model thread erupts into excitement if Mr Murrs sausage pops up.

Depends where you live I guess. Remarkably I have had several direct hits this year. Very rare!

Thunderstorm 10km to my north. The skies look very nasty and looks like I may get the tail end as it is crossing the Severn Estuary. Edit: Orrrr maybe not just that tiddly bit too far South. Some heavy rainfall though!

I think some people are misinterpreting Frosty's posts, thinking that he is saying a return to summery weather is a definite outcome... All I am reading is someone who enjoys discussing outputs and possibilites that may bring more settled weather. Yes I doubt anyone reading this thread would rely on charts that far out, but outputs at the far range of the runs are a type of longer term signal nonetheless. There have been for a few runs now showing a push of higher pressure from our W towards the end of August. It is too unreliable to consider at this stage so as others have said, we will need to wait a few days at least before it becomes clearer on whether it is likely/unlikely to happen. Just like when unsettled weather is shown that far out...just as unreliable right? I am not exactly seeing washout synoptics that we have been accustomed to in other recent Augusts either. At least we don't have depressions diving to our SW and then bringing frontal rainfall again and again as it swings back up over the UK.

As soon as I posted that I wouldn't see anything, strikes are detected to my NW... Edit: Scrap that it has died down again. Definitely looks like a good day for parts of the C/S and SE Quadrant of the country.

Sure is looking decent for some areas today, particular parts of C/S and SE England later on. There are showers inbound to my area, but not sure if any of it will be thundery. There is some South of Bristol but that is obviously heading away. So more than likely I am expecting my area to be where the showers develop rather than get the exciting stuff later..but I'll wait and see.

The past couple of days have reminded me of early Spring storms. Brilliant "clean" convective skies with towering clouds and temperatures that dropped like a stone under the rain. On Sunday evening there was a row of 4 anviled cumulonimbus clouds following each other, which looked stunning as the sun began to set. I wish I had a camera with me to take a picture. The North Bristol area has in particular seen plenty of torrential showers. Not much thundery activity but a "Bristol Channel Streamer" was in full effect on a couple of days. If only it were winter, as that could of delivered a tidy bit of snow if it was cold enough...

Some atrocious driving conditions just North of Bristol this morning. At one point, I had to feel sorry for some people without raincoats....there was literally a wall of heavy rain approaching them so much so you could see the straight line moving up the road at the point it started to get torrential.

A couple of rumbles from a heavy shower blowing through. Feeling rather fresh!

Lovely squall line stretching a long distance! Lucky buggers (if you like it )

The winds are forecast to strengthen later today, but I think the highest gusts will be along the East coast, transferring up towards the E and N coasts of Scotland as the low trundles its way up.

Some torrential rain with T&L moving up through Gloucestershire now....was very lively as it passed through here so it is worth keeping an eye on as it travels N/NE.

Thunder and lightning here North of Bristol..some torrential rain to!

This made me raise an eyebrow? Is there really that much chance? Sounds rather extreme if you read the description! By UKWeather Scientific (formerly MetMonkey) We have issued a RED warning for Severe Thunderstorms as Bertha approaches England and Wales on Sunday. There is the likelihood of some particularly severe or even extreme weather conditions on Sunday, so please take extra care. And a cherry picked quote.... "To give some insight into the potential severity of this event it could well be classified as a high-end level 2 Estofex or even a low-end level 3." http://www.weatherscientific.co.uk/2014/08/09/sunday-10th-august-red-warning-for-severe-thunderstorms-20-for-england-wales/