Chris K

Uhhh endless days of grey skies and temps of 7-15 degrees....stuff of nightmares

Well to be honest I don't think it is that bad. This release covers Nov-Jan...and it mentions an increased chance of positive NAO for the first half of the period...so up to approx mid-December. After that my interpretation is that of greater uncertainty. And as Summer Sun pointed out, you only have to read last years to see we ended up with a different outcome for our surface weather. Although the MetO did state relatively low confidence.

I like that it is stabilizing at a decent negative value. Quite exciting to put the OPI to the test this winter!

Stratosphere Temperature Watch thread is another great one to keep an eye on https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81567-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20142015/

Would you like a RAMP to go with that?

Yes I think it is something along those lines - I think variance was previously mentioned, so as a complete guess from me, if the variance between particular runs was say, an oddly high value/amount, it is held back as if it was an 'outlier' until the next run comes out to compare it with.

Almost always wrong? No confidence in them? If it is experimental, surely "right and wrong" in its simple form doesn't really apply here? Whether the final outcome matches the original seasonal model output or not, I would have thought the MetO actually make use of the data, even if it turns out to be completely off the mark. It could be valuable in finding flaws and potential improvements either way.

In my view, the eggs should firmly be planted on the faces of the people who rely on the long range seasonal models for their winter predictions/hopes, then say the data providers got it all wrong when it does not happen. The MetO have always stated that their seasonal models are experimental and should NOT be used for forecasting any specifics. They are there mainly as a research tool to perhaps, in future, help develop increasingly accurate modelling for months in advance. Some private & civil organisations may take them into account within risk assessments for seasonal planning...but not only using them as one source for their work. This might be a useful read for some...http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/user-guide

I would imagine councils are told every bloody year to "prepare" for a cold winter...as much as any other possible severe weather scenario that could occur. Almost as bad as the posts on here you get saying "my dads, friends son works in a well known weather forecasting company, which I won't name for security reasons and said 3 months of constant blizzards are coming" Whatever.

That is if the correlation between a negative OPI and a higher chance of a weak polar vortex/mean -AO pattern during winter holds true of course... Either way, it will certainly make watching this winter unfold even more interesting/heart palpitation inducing and it will be a good test for the model.

After last winter...one morning of frost on my car would be an improvement

And whilst not really for this thread, more interesting will be winters to come over the next decade as we head towards the minimum... As shown in previous posts, whilst perhaps useful in some aspects, I certainly won't be relying on it to confirm/blast away my winter hopes just yet. Thanks PM Great to see some supporting data... I would not take posts referencing information from Glosea and CFS models as a definitive winter forecast...don't worry just yet! In all honesty, we often see picked-out charts showing particular scenarios posted on forums most of the time, so naturally people will compare the winter pattern the majority of those. For example this time last year I remember seeing plenty of posts showing charts of northern blocking and cold for the UK, but as you say if it was followed like you do, the overall average probably showed something different.

Well if it's their own shower they can wee where they like, but I wouldn't be best pleased if it was a communal shower/shared shower room! Haha.

One noticeable feature I feel we have seen this Summer and first part of Autumn, is a trough cutting off to our SW drawing in air from an Easterly or South-easterly direction. Be it in slow-time whilst we enjoy extended settled weather, or repeated within days of each other. In those settled spells, we were generally locked with either an Azore high nudging in from the SW, an Azore/Scandi high pressure linkage, or most recently, a scandi/euro block that we have enjoyed (or endured if you have hated it...). I always get nervous this time of year because there always seems to be hints of Northern blocking that bit too early to be useful for the majority of snow fans. However, I will be watching the Jet with interest, as generally we have witnessed it go towards or North of the UK giving us this rather lengthy period of warmer than average months (except August perhaps - where the Jet seemed to aim itself towards Spain). Perhaps we may get lucky sometime this winter. Hopefully if we do enter a more stormy spell (you would expect it to fairly soon as we move into October and the accompanying Northern Hemisphere cooldown), it won't get locked in like last year with storm after storm...

Cells firing up West of Hereford? Seems to be a rash of them springing up and are starting to swing towards the East. I would say places such as Gloucester or anywhere Eastwards is where they may head if they continue to develop.

Yes got some shots but are a bit out of focus and going to try tidy them up. I'm going to go through some of the videos I also took to see if I can get a more decent screengrab or two. (Probably try upload tomorrow as I am out tonight)

Seems to be some showers developing over Wales? Personally I am not sure if they will amount to much, but perhaps something to keep an eye on as they drift East through tonight?

Brilliant photos Karl!! I can't wait to trawl through mine tomorrow!

Those around Chippenham and Melksham have had probably the best treat tonight...they have had lightning for a few hours now surely!? I've even had lightning here for a couple hours...this is the best I've witnessed in a long time!! (I missed the July storms) Did some photos and videoing but I must go to bed now...will have a look through it all tomorrow and post up anything decent

Frequent lightning way to the SE...looks to be ever so slowly coming this way....lovely! Going to try get some pictures now.

Yea I assume this is because detectors generally pick up CG lightning?

Goodness me Melksham area looks like the place to be right now...the cells seem to be back building over that area with most strikes being detected there at the moment. It all seems to be trundling its way towards Bristol. Even though not that many strikes are being detected near here, I am now hearing rumbles cropping up about 10 miles North of Bristol so I can only assume the storms are becoming elevated as they move W/NW? In the distance to my SE yes. If it gets a bit closer I will try get some piccys...seems to be staying a bit too far South for me at the moment.

Yep will try catch some videos or something if it is not too late. Something tells me I'll be yawning in the office tomorrow Looking at its current (slow) track it looks like I may just be that little bit too far North...but again it's a waiting game to see if it holds up anyway.

You're right! If it keeps going looks like a direct hit for Bristol itself. I live about 10 miles North so may see it in the distance to my South if so!

Couldn't make it up. Storms lose lightning activity as it reaches Bristol, only for it to start up again once it has crossed the Severn Estuary....again! Brilliant