shedhead

My initial take on the overnight stuff is 'been there, seen that, got the t-shirt'. Whilst some drier, warmer weather looks likely across the next week or so, the pattern is still inherently unsettled for most parts of the country, with any possible heat again likely to be confined to the SE corner. Little to be either optimistic or exited about as far as a protracted nationwide spell of fine weather is concerned in my opinion, but for those looking for a cold start to Autumn the T+384hr is chock full of potential, with the -5c 850mb line already getting close to the Faroes on Sept 1st.

Rather back down to earth with a bump this morning, as yet again a projected very warm/hot spell gets squeezed out as we approach the reliable timeframe. Given this Summer's history to date I'm surprised anyone got seduced by the outputs across the last few days; true there are signs of an overall improvement in the 500mb hemispheric pattern, but nothing that was likely to support a swing to 30c+ temps and wall to wall sunshine inside a week. As ever, the book itself is far more insightful than individual chapters within it.

Hard to argue with this assessment... unfortunately! The ridge that a few days ago looked set to bring a decent, albeit short spell of fine weather to England and Wales at least is now all but gone, flattened yet again by the big foot to our north. Looking a little father ahead all model suggest another pretty unsettled weekend, then into next week there are hints of another temporary rise of pressure, but with the big foot still resident to our north another flattening will probably be the result as we get closer to the time.

I go away for a few days and look what happens...ermmm, absolutely nothing! After what looks like an increasingly cool and mixed few days to come, we should at least see a drier spell across the southern half of the country from midweek, with a warm/very warm feel likely where to sun does break through. Farther north though any improvement looks limited, then towards the weekend the ridge across southern areas is destined to collapse once again, taking everyone back to square one in a week or soes time.

It was not posted to suggest it would verify on the 13th, it was posted, tongue in cheek, to see if anyone would bank it for Xmas Eve.

Pleasant enough here, 22.2c at noon, but nothing at all to write home about. However it's all relative of course and I think this time tomorrow it'll look very good, with the 06 Exeter fax showing the front may be reluctant to move away eastwards very quickly!

Perhaps if you'd copied and pasted the full sentance Rob, rather than selecting a 11 word soundbite, it would have helped with the context. A bit early to be writing off Aug on day 3, but even a cursory glance at the overnight model suite must fill even the most optimistic members with at least a degree of foreboding. No one can in all justification write off Aug yet; admittedly the omens are not good, but in light of the fact there are still 28 days of it left I think my full opening sentance was very fair and reasonable.

A bit early to be writing off Aug on day 3, but even a cursory glance at the overnight model suite must fill even the most optimistic members with at least a degree of foreboding. After what looks like an increasingly cool spell across the next 5 or 6 days, with plenty of showers and eventually a gusty wind there are signs that a mid Atlantic ridge should eventually bring a return to drier, quieter conditions. However any warmth looks set to remain very elusive even if it does dry up later next week, and as Gibby has said, there's a fair chance that any ridge would collapse quite quickly given the pattern towards Greenland. In all honesty I'm beginning to think the best chance of a widespread fine, warm and sunny spell a la April is most likely in September now, which if it's during the 1st half can still produce some decent summery conditions, so perhaps all is not yet lost. EDIT: Who would take this as a Xmas Eve chart.....

No significant changes on the 06GFS, so it continues to look increasingly likely that the 1st half of August at least will produce little if any fine, warm and sunny weather on a nationwide basis. There are hints of something better post T+300hrs as pressure falls to the north and a decent ridge extends across us, but this probably won't be the first or last time that signs of proper summer are there in 12-16 days time, frustrating as that is.

Agree, there are some rather marked variations shown as we get past the reliable. However the one thing all the models are firm on at T+144hrs is another robust block over Greenland, as we've seen through much of this summer to date, so expecting any significant change to the overall July pattern looks nothing more than hopecasting to me.

Move along, move along please, there's nothing to see here.... well not if you are looking for a protracted fine, dry and sunny spell of weather as we enter the last 4 weeks of offical Summer. Both the main models offer nothing other than unsettled conditions and with winds swinging into the northwest it will also become rather cool for many, especially in and around showers. ECM do have signs of more ridging post T+168hrs, but even then only southernmost counties look set to benefit, with most other areas seeing cloud and more persistent rain/drizzle.

This is a beauty..... http://travel.aol.co.uk/2011/08/01/August-kicks-off-with-heatwave-and-wednesday-could-be-hotter/

Yes indeed Gavin, fair to say this chart has a distinctly autumnal look to it and would not be out of place in early November. Certainly the potential for some strong, even gale force gusts in the west IF it were to verify, especially around showers which do look set to rattle east at times.

Agree with this. GFS in particular offers little hope of any protracted fine, warm and settled weather, indeed if you live anywhere other than central and eastern England and east Wales even the next few days promise little in the way of warm sunshine. The best hope as we move further into August is either an ex TS or ex Hurricane becomes cut off in the Atlantic and pumps up some Tm air, but given the current model output this does not look like a viable option any time soon - so true Summer (at least as most like to think of it) looks set to remain as elusive as ever.

It's felt chilly in the evenings here more times than not all summer, no need to wait until the 2nd half of August. Yes the next 3 or 4 days look rather warm/warm for many areas, very warm for some and hot for a few, but we won't need to wait long to feel chilly again because evenings next weekend should fit the bill nicely.

Given tonights model output, it's hardly surprising this place is quieter than a Trapist Monks library. Without wishing to sound to -ive, after what looks like a reasonable weekend for most it's all downhill, with the outlook into the 1st half of August looking pretty aweful by any measure. The reality is we have less that 5 week of Summer left, but as things stand we can probably write two, perhaps even three of those off completely as far as protracted fine, warm and sunny weather is concerned, leaving just the last half of August to deliver what we haven't seen since April. Let's just hope that having been deprived of yet another decent summer we get compensated with a cold, snowy winter, but I won't be holding my breath or betting against a fat, semi permanent Bartlett.

Agree HD, the only +ive spin I can put on things across the next 5 or 6 days is it will be warm and perhaps feel very warm due to the mainly light winds, at least in any sunshine. That said I'm not sure sunshine will be abundant anywhere, in fact cloud looks set to predominate, especially during the afternoons when some sharp, slow moving showers can also be expected. At this stage I'll reserve judgement on Aug as a whole, but I concur that the omens are not good, with the block looking likely to re establish itself quite strongly across Greenland during week 1.

Very true, but unfortunately some places, particularly I feel across N Ireland, W England and Wales will get under some spells of very wet weather and where this occurs it'll feel far from summery. As I said yesterday, we are a relatively small island and therefore the weather is rarely the same in all areas, let's just hope those sat in warm sunshine don't again feel the need to come on here and goad those sat under cool, wet weather.

The 06GFS continues on the same theme out to 144hrs, only fidlding with the position of the LP to our NW. However, given the extent of the blocking to our north/northeast on the chart below, it's hard to envisage anything other than a fall of pressure across the UK thereafter, with more unsettled weather predominating.

Some interesting SST anoms around at the moment. Clearly a much cooler area off of western Europe, no doubt refective of the indifferent summer to date, with the N Med also looking significant cooler than average with temps still only in the upper teens. Not entirely sure what implications this might or might not have for our Winter, but I suppose if the SST's remain below normal to our west/southwest across the rest of the Summer and into Autumn it can only be a good thing as far as Winter is concerned from a cold perspective. Any wiser sages wish to comment on this (or destroy my theory), please feel free.:lol: ...

PWS's long range forecasts are always interesting, but that's because they are written to be interesting. It's purely commercial, nothing more, nothing less. Outside the nutty professor, rarely has the adage 'never let facts get in the way of a good story' been more pretinent. Frankly I wouldn't believe Powell and his ilk if they said tomorrow was Friday and I'd strongly advise others against so doing too.

12GFS throws a real spanner in the works by bringing the LP to the NW into play as early as Sunday in the west, then making it the dominant feature through the first half of next week, with a SW flow predominating. It might be easy to dismiss this new evolution as a wobble if it were not for the fact UKMO have been plugging it for 2 to 3 days now, so I don't think it can be ignored, especially as their 12 run sticks with the plan. Those looking for a very warm/hot thundery breakdown will do doubt the rather disappointed with this evenings offerings so far, but perhaps ECM will show something different again.... I wouldn't bet against it to be honest.!

It does seem that some are keener to come on here and wind others up about what weather they have or have not had, rather than concerntrating on what the models are saying going forward. We may live on a small island (relatively) but even so it is quite rare at anytime of year for all of us to be seeing exactly the same kind of weather, so it goes without saying that those sat under cool, grey cloud today are going to get miffed when those sat in warm sunshine keep saying how nice it is - as far as I know there are other thread available for that type of IMBY posting. Back to the models, the 06GFS maintains the general theme of previous runs, but although they turn it more unsettled next week temperatures look fairly decent away from the N Sea coast, with western areas again set to enjoy the best of the sunshine on offer, IF of course these charts verify.

As Gibby has indicated the models are a real dogs breakfast this morning, with the only certainty being uncertainty as we go into next week. What is becoming very clear though is a lengthy fine spell is looking less and less likely, but that said there should still be plenty of dry weather on offer until early next week, with temperatures more akin to what most would expect from the back end of July.

Further evidence from the 12GFS that the 06 run was onto something, the only difference here is the breakdown from the south is a little quicker, something I suspect will continue across subsequent runs. Will be interesting to see what ECM comes up with later, but it's fair to say UKMO are not really singing from the GFS hymnsheet at T+144hrs.