shedhead

ECM paints a very ugly picture after Friday, so if it's fine, warm and settled you want then ECM is really not playing ball this evening. Perhaps things will not be quite as grim as it suggests from next weekend, but I'd expect it to be closer to the eventual evolution than GFS's Azores ridging.

All in all a fair improvement across the model suite this morning, but I still think it's worth remaining guarded as to whether this is the start of a pattern change, or simply a longer fine spell in what remains an essentially unsettled pattern. The next 3 or 4 runs should go a long way to deciding which, but definately a cause for optimism if fine, dry and warm weather is your want.

Decent agreement between the 12 UKMO and GFS at T+144hrs, with Atlantic low pressure back in charge after a quieter, more settled first half of the week. Post T+144hrs GFS paints a fairly dismal picture if fine, dry and warm weather is you thing, but if you enjoy a rather cool, mixed bag with the chance of some decent convective activity then this run should be right up your street. Will need to see if ECM joins the party later, but I'd be surprised if it doesn't paint a very similar picture to the other two at T+144hrs, effectively making it a full house.

I'd be interested to know where you see any hot spells on the 06 run?

The point about over inflated expectations has been made many times, but it really is fair to say that until we start to manage those expectations the MD thread will continue to see long periods of disappointment, punctuated by short periods of exitement. If you find this unpalatable, then I'm afraid to say that emigration is your only viable option. Back on topic, the 06 GFS brings rather more ridging in from the SW later next week, perhaps extending the fine spell a little longer, but the overall pattern from next weekend continues to look all too familiar.

Indeed Paul, even if ECM were to verify any decent conditions would largely be confined to Scotland, parts of N Ireland and perhaps Cumbria. Elsewhere after a showery end to the working week the weekend looks cool and breezy/windy, with some particularly unseasonal conditions affecting N Sea coastal counties of England. That said I think this evolution looks unlikely to verify, with GFS's predicted west-northwesterly regime being more likely at that time.

Frankly I can't see it being dry and I can't see it being warm, at least not on the models I'm Iooking at. I'd suggest there's a risk of showers on almost every day for the next week or so across the W Midlands, with daytime temps a little below average and night time values cool, perhaps even locally cold.

12 GFS and UKMO remain pretty bullish about the return of the Atlantic post Wednesday, indeed even the first two days of the working week cannot be considered as guaranteed fine and dry, with Monday in particular seeing fairly widespread inland shower development. Longer term GFS sticks to it's guns, with low pressure and a generally cool theme predominating, so IF it verifies it's very hard to see any genuine heat across the remainder of July.

The overnight runs show decent agreement on a slow imorovment from the southwest this weekend as the low drifts away, then as we move into the early part of next week all three go for a spell of relatively decent weather, albeit from differing synoptics. Thereafter the jury is out, but with ECM singing from a rather different hymnsheet than both UKMO and GFS at T+144hrs my money is on GFS from midweek, with another attack of Atlantic low pressure being the most likely evolution.

The latest outputs certainly add weight to your comments. With the first week of July already behind us and nothing to suggest anything resembling a pattern change, this month is already looking like a write of if dry, hot and sunny weather is your bag. Clearly August is still capable of delivering some protracted fine, settled weather, but again as you point out the last few Augusts have been very disappointing and it frankly would not come as any real surprise to me to see the current pattern extending well into next month, perhaps even dominating it. Should this happens I suppose all will quickly be forgiven/forgotten if a cold, blocked winter follows, but if we get to November and high pressure takes up residence over central Europe and wafting SW'erlies envelop the UK for weeks on end there will be some seriously unhappy campers on here... me included!

Having returned from a few days holiday I was hoping (perhaps against hope really) that the models would have come up with some fundamental changes in the overall pattern as we head towards mid July, but sadly this does not appear to be so. As has often been the case recently GFS paints a rather better picture than ECM, but of course it's all relative, with ECM suggesting the general improvement next week quickly gets eroded by a SE'erly tracking low pressure system. Looking at FI it's reasonable to say that if it comes off we should see a return to fine, warm and summery conditions from mid month, but it's a big IF and to be fair we've seen at all before on many occasions at post T+192hrs.

I don't think anyone is writing off July... yet! Clearly there will be some decent spells this month, as there were in June, but the $64,000 question is can we change the pattern to something more condusive to fine, warm and settled weather? To my mind given all we can currently see this will not be easy, but that's not to say it won't happen, however we may need to be very patient.

Whilst I'm retiscent to write July off on the 2nd of the month, you would have to conclude that the current outputs offer little hope of protracted fine, dry and warm weather anytime soon, at least not on a national basis. Shades of 76 can now be completely forgotten, indeed as I said last night and Mr Data's recent historical chart posting confirms, shades of 2006-2010 looks far more realistic at this juncture. Whether we can salvage something decent in August remains to be seen, but the precident set across recent Summers suggests even this will be difficult, so unfortunately what started out as a Summer of huge, genuine hope is slowly but surely going down the proverbial pan.

I'm not one for doom and gloom as a rule, but I've got to say the latest guidance is the stuff nightmares are made of if you are looking for fine, warm weather, and is akin to a massive January Bartlett if hoping for bitter cold and snow. The Greeny High is as robust as ever at +192hrs, perhaps even more robust than across much of June, so we remain locked in a pattern that history has proven as very difficult to break.

Yep, as I suggested earlier ECM was likely to back UKMO over GFS at 144hrs, which it duely did, now to complete/confirm it's humilation the GFS 18 has been dragged screaming and kicking into line. So little doubt now that next week will be cool and inherently showery, perhaps even seeing some longer spells of rain across western areas in particular, with the only real question now sadly being just how long will it last? As for 'shades of Summer 76', lets just say shades of Summers 06-10 unfortunately look far more pertinent. If we see any significant changes in the morning, or indeed across the next 3 or 4 days now, I will be very surprised.

Once again the 12GFS is at odds with the 12UKMO at +144hrs, much as the respective 00 runs were, when ECM was also pretty much in line with UKMO. If I had to put money on which evolution ECM will back later this evening it would be UKMO, primarily because these two have continued to show consistancy with regard to the positioning and movement of next weeks upper low, so cooler and more unsettled does look the more likely senario to me from Tuesday - perhaps for several days too.

The 06 GFS, far from backing away from the 00's overall fine evolution has actually improved on it, with everything pretty much where we want to see it synoptically if fine, dry and warm weather is your thing. Really cannot see it panning out as good as it suggests though, but neither can I see things being as dire as the 00 ECM. So as I said earlier some sort of half way house will probably emerge across subsequent runs, which for most should ensure some decent conditiions during the first half of July, with the south tending to fair best of all.

I can't see any real reason to suggest the 00 ECM outcome is 'unlikely', other than wishful thinking perhaps, and if so I'm with you there! However it is clearly at the worse case senario end of the scale, with GFS close to best case given the overall set up, so I suspect we'll probably end up with something of a half way house. The UKMO at 144hrs does look of concern to me though, struggling to see a quick root back to anything warm and settled from there.

Mr Mc was also pretty bullish about very cold weather extending into January this year as I recall, but he was quite wide of the mark there in reality. Looking at the 500mb pattern at T+240hrs I still don't see any signs of the ingredients required to give heatwave conditions in the UK, indeed the longer range GFS tends to suggest few if any major changes to the June pattern, but there will no doubt be some decent spells similar to the up coming one to look forward to as we pass through July.

Hi GP As a new and relatively inexperienced member, could I please ask that when you do an update such as the one above, can you simply conclude in lay mans terms what your thoughts mean for this part of the world. Something along the lines of...... the above should result in drier, warmer conditions, with LP to the west meaning more of a southerly flow. I'm sure to many on here drawing a conclusion from what you post is obvious/easy, but there must be others like me that would welcome a greater degree of clarification via a simple one liner. Cheers Tony

As I said at this time yesterday, the way you view the glass (half full or half empty) very much dictates what conclusions you draw from the latest runs. Few would argue that that the overall pattern is not one that is condusive to searing heat, but at the same time I'd expect the period from now until Monday to see well below average rainfall, slightly above average sunshine and slightly above average temperatures, which to my mind if far from a disaster. Again as I said yesterday perhaps our level of expectation is a little too high here, yes if we'd paid for a family holiday to Crete and had this forecast we might have the right to expect better, but as we are sat on a small island in the cold N Atlantic we should probably accept what's coming across the next 4 or 5 days with a little more appreciation, because as we know in reality it could be significantly worse. As for next week much the same is true in my opinion, OK there looks like being more in the way of rain around as the upper trough becomes slow moving close by, but I see nothing to suggest widespread doom and gloom there either, with all areas still enjoying some decent spells of sunshine.

Certainly a decent 2nd half of the week in prospect for most of us, but I suspect we'll see the Atlantic breakdown speeding up a little on subsequent runs (as is often the case), so not sure we can assume a glorious weekend even for England and Wales. That said any rain should be light and patchy for the most part, but there will probably be to much cloud for many people's liking, except perhaps in the extreme east.

I think any conclusions drawn from interpretation of the overnight runs very much depends on whether you are a glass half full, or glass half empty person. Those on the half full side of things would point to the fact short/medium term prospects are not bad at all, with a good deal of dry, sunny weather on offer for many, and as winds fall light later in the week it should start to feel pleasantly warm. Those on the half empty side however will point to this week being a brief (albeit welcome) respite in what is an essentially unsettled and disappointing outlook, with the Greenland block remaining unseasonally robust and the Jetstream too far south to allow any genuine nationwide heat as we enter July. Whatever side of the full or empty side anyone sits though I think it's worth considering (much as when looking for protracted bitter, snowy spells in winter) that we perhaps expect to much of our weather here in the UK. It's always worth remembering we are an island, surrounded by relatively cold sea in the summer and relatively warm sea in the winter, which clearly has a significant moderating effect on our weather/climate. In general it's much more difficult for us to do extremes, so whilst many of us love them and crave them, we should perhaps leant to lower our expectation levels and try to enjoy the weather we do get. It maybe difficult for some to accept this fact and to be honest I understand why, but having lived in one of the hottest parts of the world for many years I can assure you there are many millions of people that would give their right arm for our gentle, forgiving climate - we are actually very lucky in the grand scheme of things.

The big 2 continue to show some marked variation over the UK at 168hrs, but without question both have the block well and truely in place across Greenland at that time, ensuring no significant change to the pattern we've endured through the bulk of this month. Whilst we continue to enjoy positive insights from some more experienced members going forward, I'm struggling to see how we are going to fully break this current pattern, with July probably just throwing up some occasional, brief very wam/hot blips, such as the one we're currently witnessing. Even then I suspect any genuine heat will be confined to southern and eastern England though, with our friends across the north and west largely missing out. August now holds the best hope of some sustained, nationwide warmth in my humble opinion, but even then we may find the block only easing sufficiently to allow spells (4-5 days) rather than periods (6-14 days) of fine, sunny weather.

Rather disappointing 06GFS on face value if you are looking for the more settled pattern of next week to extend into early July. Unfortunately the persistent northern block is back in place from about T+168hrs, squeezing the LP's south across the UK and bringing a return to cool, generally unsettled weather. Again tho this is very much at odds with the 00z ECM, which basically has low pressure dominant over Greenland post T+192hrs - so have one of the big 2 got it badly wrong, or will we end up with something of a half way house come the early part of next week?