shedhead

In my opinion the 06 GFS has started to nail the general pattern across the next 7-10 days, with high pressure slowly building across the UK and bringing a good deal of fine, warm and settled weather. Eventually though low pressure will develop towards Biscay and track NE'wards, bringing a spell of unsettled, initially thundery weather, before pressure builds over Greenland, the jet tracks south and we return to our cooler July pattern.

That depends how you are qualifying warm though. If you are taking about the general feel then yes it will be warm, especially in any sunshine. However if by warm you are saying temps will be 2-3c above the long term average, then no it will not be warm for the vast majority of us, indeed across parts of the E and SE of England it could technically be called rather cool for much of this week..

Nothing really changed on any of the model outputs this morning, at least not from an overall perspective, so largely dry, with temps and sunshine values close to normal just about sums it up for most. Considering what we've endured of late I can see why some are rather 'bigging up' the outlook, but the reality is it's nothing other than bog standard fayre in what has been a pretty bog standard Summer to date.

06 nothing to write home about, but then again it still represents a significant improvement on what we've seen of late and that has to be a good thing. I think the pattern across the next week or so will reflect what we see through much of August. i.e HP to the west, ensuring largely dry with temps and sunshine close to the long term average. Personally I'd take that and be grateful for it...

Yes, definately does not look wet. However with a fetch off of the Atlantic for almost the entire run, temperatures and sunshine should be near average for most, with the brightest and warmest weather in the east.

Indeed Rob, warmer for sure this week and certainly drier as a whole, but it's all relative and if this week was following a period of fine, sunny weather I think it would probably be being viewed in a rather different light. Cloud amounts look to be the main problem, especially in the west/southwest, which now appears as if it could pretty dull right through the week. Central and eastern areas do look somewhat better, but with the way things have gone so far both recently and across the summer in general you wouldn't want to bet that this mornings general worsening doesn't continue on subsequent runs... well I certainly wouldn't.

The latest 96 and 120hr Exeter fax chart confirm my earlier point about cloud amounts next week, with plenty of fronts shown to be meandering around the country right through until at least Thursday.

Agree with much of this. True, compared to what we've had to endure of late things do look better through the coming week, but truth be told they are far from startling on any model output. The positioning of the HP will mean a general feed off of the Atlantric and this brings fairly large amounts of cloud at any time of year, especially to the more exposed western areas. Rainfall amounts should be down on normal, but I think daytime maxima will never be from the long term average and sunshine amounts may well be down on what many are expecting. Until we get a decent build of pressure to our east and a continental flow any heat looks set to remain very elusive and there are still no tangible signs of this as we enter the final third of Summer. .

One things for sure, you'll have better weather than I did in St Ives last week. Went down for a week last Saturday but was back home again on Tuesday morning, the few days we were there felt and looked more like November and that discription contains no poetic license! As for this coming week, all the models suggest an onshore fetch eartly on, so some rain or drizzle at times along with a lot of misty low cloud, but don't give in like we did, because the 2nd half of the week looks much better and you should be able to see the north coast of Cornwall in all it's spectacular, dramatic glory. Enjoy.

Almost certainly a slow but steady improvement from the SW across the next week, with most places finally seeing some warm, sunny weather. Even now though there are indications that pressure will rise once again across Greenland into the first few days of August, so rather than the heat building we'll probably see a general cooling off as winds switch into a northerly quarter, but countering that there should still be a good deal of fine weather on offer.

The 18GFS just prompts me to re-post this from earlier.... We'll probably be looking at a typical summer senario here, whereby the fine spell takes longer and longer to arrive and once here disappears quicker than currently progged, there's certainly signs of exaclty this kind of thing evolving on GFS. That said all areas should at least see a spell of decent weather next week, with the southwest probably enjoying the greatest longevity, due to it's proximity to the main high pressure cell. Also of note, on the 06 GFS much of England and Wales spent 2 or 3 days within the 564 dam line next week, on the 12 run only the far southwest is within it and then only for about 25 mins on Monday afternoon! Edit: The 18 run sees the 25 mins reduced to 9 mins! This post has been edited by shedhead: Today, 17:01

Very true. We'll probably be looking at a typical summer senario here, whereby the fine spell takes longer and longer to arrive and once here disappears quicker than currently progged, there's certainly signs of exaclty this kind of thing evolving on the GFS 12 run. That said all areas should at least see a spell of decent weather next week, with the southwest probably enjoying the greatest longevity, due to it's proximity to the main high pressure cell. Also of note, on the 06 GFS much of England and Wales spent 2 or 3 days within the 564 dam line next week, on the 12 run only the far southwest is within it and then only for about 25 mins on Monday afternoon!

The same kind of hype followed GP's 'Shades of 76' Summer Forecast, but despite his huge level of knowledge and previous track record we all know what happened to that! So whilst Madden may well be right, theres a huge amount of water to go under the bridge, even before all the required paramaters are in place to try and make a forecast. Pure hype and sensationalism at this stage and if this guy is not careful he'll be in real danger of being viewed in the same light as the ultimate nutty professor, putting commercial interests and self promotion above professional integrity.

Nothing more than a sales and marketing exercise.... simples!

Very much so AW, caution was always required and still is, but things have definately drifted more towards UKMO's version of events, rather than visa versa. GFS has clearly moved towards a more unsettled outlook, with any decent AH ridging now back in FI (again), but the biggest change of all has come from the hiterto fairly consistent ECM which has seen a major change across just 12hrs.

Indeed TWS, good news for your location for sure. I'm reluctant to believe we'll see the LP drifting W as UKMO suggest, but given the nature of things right now I just don't think we can rule it out completely - what odds on the 06 GFS backing that evolution, just to add to the confusion?

Whilst I think 'less unsettled' weather is now almost a given for next week, that's as far as I'm prepared to go at this stage, with still way to much uncertainty around to call for a return to full on Summer. UKMO in particular is very reluctant to build the AzH northeastwards, keeping relatively low pressure firmly in charge at 144hrs, meanwhile GFS, albeit slightly better is nowhere near as keen as ECM to raise pressure over the UK.

Some very low temps being recorded today, none more so than across the SW. 13:00hrs Liscombe - 11.0c Cardinham - 11.7c Plymouth - 12.0c Here is an all too familiar looking chart for July 5th 1978, which saw the UK's coldest max for that month of 9.1c, set at Okehampton Devon. I accept the dangers in pattern matching, but after a dull, cool and fairly wet July it did get drier, sunnier and warmer in Aug/Sept. Clutch, clutch! As you might also expect, there is a very similar 850mb temp profile across the chart between then and now, with very cool air having pushed right down into the NW Med and N Iberia.

Guess what... it's raining. Can't be anymore than 13c either, so genuinely a day that would not disgrace November. Shocking!

Whilst 3 fine, warm days are possible next week, I cannot see anything in the current model output to suggest they are likely. ECM offers little if any significant change to the current pattern through much of the run and even GFS looks a good deal more unsettled than it did 18-24hrs ago, so no real end in sight at the moment imo.

Even if we do see 18-21c across London this week, given an average max of almost 23c those values will represent cool, even very cool conditions. Max temps can also be misleading as to how the days really feels, especially in showery situations. Quite often we see max temps for the day around 19c, but when you look back over the obs much of the time values were in the 15-17c, just popping up to 19c in a lengthy sunny spell between the showers. As you say perhaps not Guiness Book of Records cold, but this week represents just about as cold as we can get here in July outside persistent rain, so whilst a positive spin is always welcome so is a dose of reality - and the reality is cool, unsettled and thoroughly disappointing for the 2nd half of July.

Very much back down to earth with a bump this morning, with the signal for improved conditions, particularly from GFS, being completely blown away. ECM has shown far better consistancy across the last few weeks, being far less prone to HP 'wobbles' and remains the model to watch imo, with GFS no doubt coming up with further teases across the coming days.

Showers, showers and more showers, then rain. Windy too,did we leave home in July and arrive in November? Certainly feels like it.

06GFS continues the improving theme, but with a distinct west/east split developing as the working week unfolds. IF it verifies Ireland and the western half of the mainland should see some decent amounts of sunshine across the 2nd half of the week and into the weekend, with temperatures probably rising by a degree each day. Eastern areas closest to the LP look cloudier and anomolously cooler with showers, but even here showers should become lighter and increasingly confined to North Sea coastal counties by this time next week, with the chance of summer returning for all after the 25th - at least temporarily!

Signs this morning that we may well see a switch to more settled, warmer conditions in the longer term, but it's still rather early to make to many assumptions. Certainly the 500mb anomoly charts do take the deep troughing away from us, but they are still not suggestive of anything fine, warm and sunny, so any improvement that does emerge could simply be a blip rather than a pattern change. That said, the overnight runs do offer the best hope for some time to those wanting a return to more summery conditions.