shedhead

Very similar synoptics to the final third of last summer, which saw persistent heatwave conditions in W Russia, while we in W Europe suffered cool, unsettled weather. Moscow woud again see the 100f mark threatened IF those charts verify, meanwhile here average temps look about the best on offer. Frustrating enough for most, but come Jan when it's -25c in Moscow and 13c here this forum will go into full on 'toys out the pram' mode... again!

All eyes on the 12 ECM now as it comes out, but it must be said the 12GFS has drifted more towards the 00 ECM post 144hrs, so I expect the 12 ECM will maintain it's rather consistant stance.

Whilst both the big boys maintain essentially cool, unsettled conditions across the next 7-10days ECM is far worse, keeping the ridge well out west and allowing LP to develop slap bang over the top of us towards the end of the period. It's fair to say UKMO and GFS are reasonably well in line at T+144hrs, so there is a chance that GFS's slightly more optimistic evolution might develop thereafter, but with ECM sticking to it's hitherto consistent line this simply cannot be taken as read quite yet.

Even given GFS's perpensity to downgrade maxima, next week will be cool almost everywhere and locally very cool, IF the 12 run verifies.

I'd have to say given what the 12GFS shows next week Gavin, your assessment is, let's call it, a tad optimistic. If the 12GFS were to verify next week will be inherently showery, but it will also be cool, locally very cool. Moreover the often stiff N wind will make it feel unpleasant at times, especially down the North Sea coast, where occasionally more persistent rain is likely to add to the misery. I certainly would not want to be a beach based business in Gt Yarmouth next week, or almost anywhere else for that matter.

The 06GFS continues the theme, banging yet another nail into the coffin of July, which to anyone other than an eternal optimist must now look a write off as far as nationwide warmth is concerned. Perhaps of more concern though is it's hard to see the pattern evolving into anything more setttled looking at the progs post T+300hrs. Admittled the block over Greenland has gone, but the Jet, albeit weak is being fired right at us, with any Azores ridging only affecting France and N Iberia. Far to early to write August off too, but things do not look that +ive right now imo.

Yesterdays 18hr runs were the 6 or 7th set to show an improvment in the longer term, only to see it diluted or smashed up 6 or 12 hours later. Surely those who keep looking at these runs and hoping they are right will eventually get the message, until we see a significant shift in the pattern progged here.... http://www.meteo.psu...0z/hgtcomp.html nothing is going to change significantly for the better - whether we like it or not. johnholmes Posted Yesterday, 09:57It is the model discussion thread so can we discuss that please, there is a thread for discussing the summer forecast?

With respect, this summer was supposed to be comparable with 1976 according to GP/Netweather, that was not the general consensus, indeed some LRF's actually went for a poor to average Summer at best. That said, even GP/Netweather quickly realised their mistake and issued a far less bullish update in June based on the lastest available telecons, so to keep referring to their initial (admittedly very disappointing) error is now patently unfair imo - we've moved on!

3/10 and even that is probably being generous.

All indications are that those looking for fine, dry and warm weather may well need to be patient, very patient in fact, with the overnight runs suggesting any significant change of pattern now looks unlikely before months end - if then! So it's now looking increasingly likely that Aug has to be the month to deliver the protracted spell of fine weather, but if we don't start to see some +ive signs of a pattern change soon we may be stuck with a similar set up through the 1st week at least. Assume you are referring to Moscow and not the UK?

ECM maintains the very unsetlted theme right through the run, which IF it's to be believed effectively writes off the remainder of July, at least as far as nationwide heat is concerned. Once again GFS hints at something more settled in FI, but we've been there plenty of times already across the last few weeks, so I will again treat it with a good deal of sceptacism. The problem is unless we see some fundamental changes in the N Hemis 500mb anomoly charts pretty soon there is a real danger this pattern, or one very close to it, will actually extend into August - at which point talk of Summer being written off might well have some merit.

AWD - The problem is GFS has shown a similar kind of settling down in FI quite frequently across the last few week, but it just hasn't happened, therefore with the 500mb anomoly charts as they are this latest pressure rise should again be treated with sceptasism/caution imo.

Indeed John - I've said several times across recent days, we need to see some sustained wavelength change progging before we get confident of an improvement and currently there is still nothing on the horizon. GFS will continue to tease at times in FI and we may occasionally see some shorter term changes, but this will be no more than a team having a 5 minute purple patch in a game in which they've been dominated for 85 mins.

Regarding FI.... what the 12 gave us, the 18 taketh away - again! Here endeth today's model watching!

Let's hope you are wrong PE, but I would not want to bet against the jist of what you say actually manifesting itself. Even given GFS's perpensity to predict overnight minima, this is a remarkable chart for the 2nd half of July, with some very low temperatures across parts of Iberia, France and Italy in particular.

Certainly some similarities between the prog for 21st July and the analysis from 21st July 2010. Cool and mixed across western Europe, heat building out east - perhaps another Moscow August heatwave developing?

There will inevitably be some changes to timing, intensity and track of the low, but the end result is likely to be the same when looking at things from a national perspective this weekend, i.e cool and windy, with rain then showers.

Whilst the 06GFS does hint at a pattern change and a move towards more settled conditions in FI, I think it wise to view it's output with caution at this stage. Several times across the last 5 or 6 weeks we've seen similar evolutions emerge beyond T+192hrs, only to be watered down, or in some cases smashed to bits on the very next run.

All the main models this morning are singing from pretty much the same hymnsheet, with a very unsettled pattern becoming establised from Friday. The weekend currently looks like being one that wouldn't disgrace November and although there are hints of an improvement on GFS next week it's all relative, as well as being highly questionable. I keep saying it, until we see sustained progging of a northern hemispeheric wavelength shift there will be little or no change to the current pattern, therefore any teases shown by GFS post T+144hrs should be treated with a good deal of sceptasism.

A very unsettled look to things across the weekend and into next week IF the 12GFS is to be believed, with a distinctly cool feel likely too, especially in any wind and rain. Indeed it probably wouldn't be much of a stretch to suggest it will feel autumnal at times across northern and western areas in particular, with little, if any tangible sign of anything settle quite yet.

Indeed Gibby. Could make the golf interesting at Sandwich across the weekend IF the current runs verify, but with the 06GFS now falling into line and completing the set you really wouldn't want to bet against it happening (or on any Americans!) If anything GFS looks even grimmer now post T+144hrs, with very unsettled evolution being progged to develop, indeed the 2nd half of July has the potential to be significantly worse than the 1st half based on this run.

The overall N Hemispheric pattern has not really changed, nor are there any significant changes progged, so I'd think it far more likely that GFS will fall into line with ECM and UKMO, rather than visa-versa. We have already seen this happen a few times across the last week or so, therefore viewing GFS as something of a straw to clutch (again) is probably unwise imo.

All I can say about the 12GFS is the same as I said earlier.... Posted Today, 09:20 The general dissapointment in here is probably reflective of the fact to much store was put in yesterdays improved outlook from GFS, but to be fair the Ops was a warm, settled outlier and with hemispheric 500mb charts showing no real change to the pattern it was always likely to turn it less settled on subsequent runs - which it duely has. As some wise sages on here have said, until we see genuine and sustained progging of a wavelength change we are pretty much stuck with what we've got, therefore any sudden improvements in the GFS and ECM outputs should be viewed with a large degree of sceptacism, especially post T+144hrs. That said at least the coming 4-5 days should see some decent weather for all of us, but even now we can't call it settled.

The general dissapointment in here is probably reflective of the fact to much store was put in yesterdays improved outlook from GFS, but to be fair the Ops was a warm, settled outlier and with hemispheric 500mb charts showing no real change to the pattern it was always likely to turn it less settled on subsequent runs - which it duely has. As some wise sages on here have said, until we see genuine and sustained progging of a wavelength change we are pretty much stuck with what we've got, therefore any sudden improvements in the GFS and ECM outputs should be viewed with a large degree of sceptacism, especially post T+144hrs. That said at least the coming 4-5 days should see some decent weather for all of us, but even now we can't call it settled.

The 18GFS has, as expected drifted more towards the 12 ECM evolution post T+144hrs, indeed if anything it's even worse, with the weekend and early part of next week looking cool, windy and very showery under a fairly intense area of low pressure. In the meantime though the coming week should see some decent sunshine at times for all, and with generally light winds it will actually feel like July, but showers may well hang around until at least Wednesday in a number of places.