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Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
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Robbie Garrett

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Everything posted by Robbie Garrett

  1. Robbie Garrett
    What phone did you get? Samsung S3 I hope..... LOL!
  2. Robbie Garrett
    Not with a Polar Vortex sitting where it is, with low pressure over central Europe, is is very unlikely the high sinks with a jet at that angle either. The net result of warm advection is to make a region warmer. Warm advection creates a localised area of high pressure, in this case the Scandinavian High which is already there, the WAA is only likely to strengthen and allow the block to last longer.
  3. Robbie Garrett
    Warm Air Advection anyone?? Might keep that Scandinavian block well in place. Right where she deserves.. The following in the MetOffice forecast really does sum up how bad things could get for the UK, and how special it could to witness something in our lifetime. UK Outlook for Tuesday 29 Jan 2013 to Tuesday 12 Feb 2013
  4. Robbie Garrett
    Heavy Snow here on regent street last 30 minutes. Surface temperature not as high as predicted due snow cover...
  5. Robbie Garrett
    The quicker a front moves through the more powerful the Precipitation. It's a Warm front, things will warm up behind it.
  6. Robbie Garrett
    If only it went further South East, Undercut of the Millennium...
  7. Robbie Garrett
    Based on that chart, I wouldn't go anywhere near an airplane/airport. The problem is the cold front never caught up with the warm front, so we don't have an occlusion and a warmer area moving through. It depends on how quick the first wave of snow can arrive, it will surely limit the temperatures to below what the MetOffice are forecasting.
  8. Robbie Garrett
    Something quite doesn't add up, I'll await the 2200 TAF. But light snow tomorrow is a guarantee then rain is forecast from 1200-1900 hours in the 1600 hours TAF's,. According to the 2100 hours Low level Aviation chart though, areas A2 will have 800 meters visibility in snow. Upgrade possibly??
  9. Robbie Garrett
    Not sure on this one, but if London gets a coating early hours of the morning the temperatures will likely stay below 0/1*C so can't see it raining/sleeting as forecast. Time will tell, and this is still up for changing. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=fiveDay&map=SignificantWeather&zoom=7&lon=-1.61&lat=51.48&fcTime=1358337600
  10. Robbie Garrett
    Latest from London Heathrow! The current plan is to continue as normal operations at the moment, the snow stuff is already and prepared this year. Monday is apparently supposed to be the big day of weather for them. This weekend they are taking everything into account for Monday. So no upgrades from Green (Normal Operations) to anything significant yet... Some of the cargo tugs have been fitted with snow ploughs if needed.
  11. Robbie Garrett
    Is that a wave event from the Himalayas??? Get in if so, Mount Everest
  12. Robbie Garrett
    Definitely, I never noticed it. But if that's the case yes potentially a stronger outlook for the UK and the MetOffice seem to agree. Problem in easterlies is that in only looks to affect eastern areas especially in a convective setup, more so the London area due to the Thames estuary. Unlike last year looking for convective snowfall, we have low pressure.
  13. Robbie Garrett
    My main concern would be Tuesdays chart on wards as that shortwave situated over eastern France heads south east, and drags that occlusion with it west/southwestwards in an easterly flow. Thereafter high pressure builds across the UK. I've put arrows on the chart to show the direction that Occlusion heads Tuesday 12z/night onwards... ECM at 120 hours explains what I mean as high pressure builds across the UK, furthermore at 144 hours good support for it to build across the UK. The problem that models are still having is the strength of the vortex over Canada, I shall email the MetOffice to see what the latest is on this now....
  14. Robbie Garrett
    The MetOffice take on things for next week is more exciting than visiting Thorpe park... The Current fax chart for 1200z on Monday is very nice indeed. Frontal snow fall event, from an occlusion. The significance then lies how far east this front will go before it then backs west into the cold air that's situated, The significance is likely to be Tuesday onwards, with a possible Thames Streamer/Easterly Convective snowfall, the key is what this front can do as it backs west, even if it does that at all. As that would cause quite a significant snowfall event onto 5-10cm reported to possibly fall on Monday night. I believe that's where the significance lies.... The information above is from Wednesday onwards, and doesn't include Mondays Snow event. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/?tab=regionalForecast
  15. Robbie Garrett
    Probably "Here we 'beeping' go again" or "We are 'beeped'" That's the words that came out during 2010 =]
  16. Robbie Garrett
    Heathrow was going through a Practice Snow clearing event last night in Terminal 5 (British Airways), I can't post the picture of the operations room as it wasn't available in the public domain.... I suspect they are now on red alert. So maximum amount of disruption/closures/severe delays expected.
  17. Robbie Garrett
    Heavy Snow Monday night according to the MetOffice website.. -7*C for London possible Wednesday...
  18. Robbie Garrett
    What have you guys done to the ECM overnight? Passed 122/144 hours it just goes for this, incredible...
  19. Robbie Garrett
    Looking at the above, we are currently having the biggest drop in CET since the 1800s. CET drop constistent with colder winters, wetter Summers?? All linked to solar activity??
  20. Robbie Garrett
    GFS well into low resolution with that one, I am sure that it's a bit overdone, as 968mb with hot to the southwest and very cold surroundings would be very very severe. That's not something you want, we as a country cannot deal with that. Some very heavy snow fall, probably blizzards and drifting snow in London, with 32 mph winds, with gusting in the region of 50/60mph would kill a lot of people. I for one hope this chart does not verify.....
  21. Robbie Garrett
    CFS confident in pushing those heights up. As the low out of Newfoundland pushes everything north. Perfect example of Warm Air Advection that the MetOffice mentioned in there email to me. ECMWF/CFS are onto something really really special here. Next week looks like Starters, I wonder what the Main will bring... 144 240 hrs +, undercut we have...
  22. Robbie Garrett
    I believe Heathrow is on amber warning at the moment, not sure if it's red yet... closer to the time I believe it will. Monday night currently Light snow, I can't wait to see what Tuesday Brings. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/city-of-london#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1358121600 So much divergence after then, looks likely London could hit double figures on Thursday. The lower scale showing -4*C.
  23. Robbie Garrett
    GFS 18z up to 90-100hour or so is further north and west. Significant Airport closing, snow event into Tuesday morning.
  24. Robbie Garrett
    NCEP ensemble mean anomaly, Definately bodes well for long-term cold outlook, definitely the uncertainty lies where the modelling of the polar vortex split over Newfoundland/Canada which is where the models specifically the GFS are struggling with. GFS doesn't build those heights as well as the ECMWF over Greenland at 144 hours, and so we are left with a rather flat pattern. ECMWF is a far better model at the moment but like 2010 the GFS predicted this first only for it to drop the idea and until a couple of days before, strangely the MetOffice agree with the ECMWF pattern.....
  25. Robbie Garrett
    According to the very kind email response I received this morning from the MetOffice. GFS is still mild, EC very cold. There is likely to be further changes in the next few days, and from my interpretation of the email I suspect going towards a colder outlook is very likely, seeing as the EC is favored more than the GFS, especially past day 8, but more so during the SSW. Does anyone have any questions I could forward onto them? As they are very regularly helpful.
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