Robbie Garrett

Latest Met Office Aviation chart says that Showers of rain and TS/CB (Thunderstorm/Cumulonimbus) will develop more widely in AREAS C tonight, that Wales/Ireland all the way down to Kent. Thunderstorms will be quite high based, so 6000ft to 8000ft but are likely to be very strong. Mostly Embedded so I suspect that it's likely what's forming over Northern France is an MCS from a TROUGH heading 010-015 from it's currently location. Which puts over London and Central Southern England sometime this evening. From looking at the charts, midnight is my best guess... MetOffice local weather forecasters are not hinting at this stage that the MCS once it's up and running will survive the Channel, but let's not torture ourselves yet but we could be in for our first Nighttime storm.

Generally if we do get an MCS, it will probably engulf Northern France/Southern England at the same time. It would cross over very slowly but would likely stay strong as an MCS supports itself. The last one I saw was that I noticed was the one going into BENELUX in May 2009. That was massive. European MCS storms can grow to 3,500 square miles. 26th May 2009 I think it was. I suspect in the case of next week, Classic Bay of Biscay Low... This on next week's GFS high res could be convective in nature, that's a lot of precipitation and probably one of the more informed guys could tell you.. All eyes on Bay Of Biscay next week, lets see if it can perform. I'm going for a Wednesday evening storm, running into Thursday Morning.

Fantasy island is this Monday. So much can change in that time, this low where it positions in the Bay of Biscay or directly over us is very crucial on how we move forward over the next 7-10 days. The CFS looks pants now for the next month, god knows what sweets they are feeding it but generally it's a reliable indicator. Let's hope this time it's wrong!! As the Summer Monsoon season will begin... Slight Trough going on over the north of the UK. August might be a headache me thinks, but let's wait and see how the next few days/week pans out.

Looks like we have a South Easterly flow up till 27th July, that's another 8-10 days of very-warm to hot (borderline extreme hot) weather to play for. Look at early August though, it could just go back to Square one after a very Thundery and humid week. High pressure is building back in after maybe a very unsettled ending to July (perhaps mostly convective of nature) Even in the most reliable of time-frames, the North Atlantic looks blocked.

I think we have to go back to 1997 or 1999 for the last French Import MCS to hit London. I remember some being literally arriving at 9pm (7pm for most southern UK) and going on until 4-5 in the morning, just constant booming thunder, Absolutely humid conditions but a nice cool breeze on the passing of some cells. Hail, torrential rain and gusty winds and constant lightning shows. That was the 90s, wonder if we will see that next week??? I reckon Sunday night/early hours Monday morning something might kick off. Two nice troughs that could kick things off in the evening. Just weather or not they make the journey northwards is another question.

Waiting for this!! That's one thing I miss about the late 90's, a classic French Import overnight MCS!! COME OOOON!!

In my personal opinion this is one Summer to watch, if you like extremes. Wouldn't be surprised that we get stuck in this spell like a dull wet and cool windy period. From what I've seen Old Met Man posting is that the only likely breakdown will come from the tropics, i.e and ex-tropical feature such as a Hurricane. Well that rules that one out anytime soon then. Looking at the MetOffice fax charts, look at how the polar low gets smashed to bits as it hits the UK high. Remember high pressure is harder to shift than low pressure at this time of the year. Check the low pressure to the southern tip of Greenland as it tracks it's way towards Iceland. It just looses it's intensity, that HIGH pressure is going nowhere fast. UK MET at +144 hours on Saturday looks like the high is setting up shop just north of Scotland, with lower pressure over the bay of biscay pumping warmer/moist air up from the south. Even the ECMWF at 240 hours, shows something very Thundery from that cut-off low pressure and the Azores ready to build back in with the UK high positioning over scandinavia. Taking a more continental influence. Heights over Greenland building very nicely, remember the thing is even if we get Greenland heights, it doesn't necessarily mean we are going to have low pressure after low pressure smashing into us, as there is no source like in Winter. Besides the UK high building over Scandinavia stops anything dropping down from the Polars.

Wouldn't be surprised, the heat is building...

BBC going for MAX 34*C in London next Monday and Tuesday...

I suspect we are going to end up having a delayed Atlantic Onslaught, remember the MetOffice knows that the GFS sometimes overdoes it with the Atlantic, something to do with the calculations. Fantasy Island on the Models are 18th-19th at the moment, past that is anyones guess... Take a look at what NOAA have forecast for after the 18th-19th period, HIGH pressure remains in charge across the UK. That HIGH is going nowhere, good chance it could do a 2011/12 as it has been super quite since the day we officially went into drought conditions April 2012. With above average temperatures till probably the 25th, that's another 12 days of this weather.

You never know...Mean max on the CFS till 05th SEPT for most parts of England is 17-21*C

Just noted, on the high res. Looks like we could finally get some night time/evening Thunderstorms here in the South on Saturday. Lots of CAPE 700-1500 j/KG and -4 to -7 LI - all to change though, but crikey if the timings are perfect then blimey that's going to go bang Saturday Evening. Tuesday evening...

Knowing our luck, it'll happen the day after as the Cold Front stalls... you watch!!

Quite an interesting pattern developing come months end. High pressure looking to re-establish itself across the UK, the North Atlantic looks firmly blocked up towards Greenland. It's quite far out and not 100% accurate yet but it shows signs of lowering heights across eastern and the middle parts of Europe, as high pressure firms it's way towards Greenland and then shifts towards the UK as the Atlantic hit's it. Notice Europe where the lower pressure is, lower temperatures. Higher temperatures slightly across the UK (NOT 100% accurate) Then as we head further towards August, High pressure builds and asserts itself across the UK and western Europe. Some very hot temperatures out of that, especially considering the next few weeks could be warm-very warm across most parts. Interestingly it's 10 years since we last had a GOOD hot summer, 2003 anyone??

But then you have to look at what else is difference since then? Pressure patterns are also surely different?

Retreats west and high pressure builds into Europe, low pressure stalls and pumps up warm humid air towards the UK. La Spanish Plume we have... CFS diagram is underdoing temperatures by 8-10*C, so if that was my money. Mid to high 30's can't be ruled out as the month progresses.

19.7 - runs and hides.....

Not been around for a while, very rarely do I visit this forums as I am busy with projects. But just had a brief look at the weather to see if it's improving, and it does look like maybe this Summer could take a turn for once. Just had a brief look at what all models that are fairly reliable are outputting, even the CFS 1 monthly is hinting at something very similar. Synopsis one - High pressure building above average to our South West and far east, warm air slowly ridging towards us from as early as into the second week of July. We are then looking at High Pressure establishing itself across the UK, probably in more favorable positions than not. Some not so keen on centering this high just east of the UK. If the CFS monthly was to be believed, we could possibly see warm/high pressure style weather till maybe August. I don't wish to go any further than that, but looks likely that July could be a scorcher!!

I do like towards the end of the run, something like this happening. Thundery would be the scenario after a few days of hot and humid weather, if the low kept pumping air towards the UK. Good bay of Biscay low.

Here's an interesting fact, so far all months have been below average, and we are currently stting at -0.98 below average up to 9th June. Our weather is weired at the moment... One thing I can see, and predict is that August will be the likely month to break that spell. Then it's back towards cooler weather and a colder than last winter winter CFS says August Bank Holiday looks good, but remarkably from now till then it's pretty much low pressure UK, no hot long periods to be seen. So that doesn't rule our warmer interludes. MetOffice updates are not encouraging, it says mostly near average/below average.

11.8C

But we don't ever get good weather longer than 5 days in this country. Besides I think August like last year will be the warmest and best month!! Going for August being the first above average and only month of 2013.

The only problem is, if we get warm and thundery the SSTs are quite low for this time of the year they would probably prevent imports. But I reckon a Scandinavian High as we enter and progress into June. Personally a very wet and cool Summer is on the way, again!!

Looking at the latest CFS V2 op runs It looks like a fairly mobile, south westerly/westerly dominated pattern I don't think it will be till early May that we will see some warmer weather, maybe something more blocked. Maybe more average more than anything for the next 240 hours, according to NCEP ENS MEAN ANOM. But May could be quite wet, early on with the odd warm day here and there. Warming up quite significantly as we head into June 2013? Perhaps very Thundery. I am expecting a fairly crap Summer overall ahead, hopefully I eat my words but it does look rather unsettled. AGAIN!! CFS got it fairly right last year, what's to say it has it spot on this year.