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Robbie Garrett

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Everything posted by Robbie Garrett

  1. Robbie Garrett
    Look what happened in Shannon! Ouch!
  2. Robbie Garrett
    Actually I take a look at the GFS and think, hmmm maybe it's a long route but there might be some changes afoot. Look at the vortex over Canada. Then look at it next Wednesday. 144 hours. That's a pattern change at H500hPA! Look at the Azores positioning, it's ridged westerly into the Atlantic. so it's highly unlikely to fill eastwards with trough movement east? One way it might go is northwards depending on any troughing left over Canada pushing everything northwards from the south. i.e warm air Advection from the Azores. Just my thoughts, nothing professional but I am wondering if the strat takes hold, the Azores is in a very good position to build blocking, with a vortex over Russia pumping towards us..
  3. Robbie Garrett
    I remember back in the 90s that it never stopped raining, admiringly I think Spring will be seasonal maybe warmer towards the end and Summer should be amazing (again??) - rainfall wise I can see next winter maybe being the same. I've noticed we tend to get cold when it's dry? and lots of snow? Is there a correlation of drought and snowfall/northern blocking?
  4. Robbie Garrett
    Pretty Average IMHO - I think this Winter is a mild/wet blip a bit like the one we had in 2012. I think that the relentless rain is because of the good Summer we've just had, all in all I'd say this winter is pretty average = normal (maybe very wet) but what do you expect when we had hardly any over the Summer. No let down in the precipitation either..
  5. Robbie Garrett
    The BBC weather update is about as positive as the world's economies. Pretty chilly this week I'd say. But it does look like a return to what we've had most of this winter.
  6. Robbie Garrett
    Yeah very long time ago, I guess that you'd need -20*C uppers at 850hpa and clear skies, no wind and December 2010 style snowfall.
  7. Robbie Garrett
    2014 - Heathrow January... 59.94mm so far with an average of 2.44mm - MAX 9.9mm 19.04 mm in 2013, and 0mm in 2012 (LOL) From October 25th to January 25th we've had 5.31 inches of rain.134.9mm
  8. Robbie Garrett
    Yeah that was pretty spectacular, quite amazing to think I've had 4 thunderstorms in 25 days, that's 1/4 of what I've had in 2013. Ever since Christmas we've had quite a few decent Thunderstorms in London, mostly in the dark hours.
  9. Robbie Garrett
    Had a lovely organge glow as this lot approached, now gone very dark. Distance lightning flash (IC Lightning) and very windy now. No Thunder as of yet. Edit, omg that was massive lightning and thunder. Very intense storm right now!!
  10. Robbie Garrett
    You effing watch, France/Benelux will have 19,000 strikes per hour in the Summer Months, narrowly missing the UK!
  11. Robbie Garrett
    I do wonder if the −21.1 °C in London will ever be broken.
  12. Robbie Garrett
    Definitely the Azores looks to ridge northwards on the NCEP, but does it really get there? Personally sometime next week we will start to see what happens with reference to the pattern change and a block out towards the west/north west in this part of the hemishphere. I was looking at November 2010 and it took quite a while for the blocking to take hold, I guess because that was just synoptics and this time we are awaiting for the Polar Vortex to be obliterated by a SSW. The low resolution output paints a picture of low pressure across the UK, with no real change to the current setup. The ensemble means don't really show anything but very similar weather to what we have now. Jetstream practically running NW/SE across the UK. It's a long route to prospects with no real definitve hope and I wouldn't get so happy yet with the models, it's probably a waiting game on the strat.
  13. Robbie Garrett
    Does anyone remember February 2011?
  14. Robbie Garrett
    I would love April/May to be extremely warm and Thundery, like an early Summer leading into a glorious June. Mid 20's in April/May can be so refreshing and the air can sometimes be nice and clear.
  15. Robbie Garrett
    CFS till end of February on both 1 and 9 monthly for the daily outputs are not showing anything remotely interesting for the foreseeable. Looks as if the mobile westerly pattern is set to continue till at least end of February. With a Polar Vortex where it is now, I cannot see the end to this relentless run of very wet weather. Although the GFS has sparked some interest for me, Chunk of polar vortex over Newfoundland and the rest is Scandinnavia in this part of the N.Hem. High pressure over Azores sending warm air advection towards Greenland and thus a 1060hPA high. First signs of the SSW coming into the modelling systems. I think that the only route to cold now is of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming, doesn't look likely that synoptics will play a part in changing the weather pattern and thus the overall picture. Read what Matt Hugo has posted on his twitter. NCEP Ensembles paint a picture of some sort of changes. TODAY NEXT Thursday EARLY FEB, things looking blocked...
  16. Robbie Garrett
    Somewhat my thinking that this Summer is the return of the monster storms. A lot of energy in the atmosphere, lots of heat and moisture but the jetstream still throwing those killer lows towards us providing a massive bang at the end of each hot period. Although I'd take consistent plumey weather over Block vs Low pressure.
  17. Robbie Garrett
    Lovely Fork lightning just over London right now. Thunderstorm Number 3 so far I am thinking all this bad weather is going to release a very nice Summer (May/June/July) time and that we are going to having a stormy one too
  18. Robbie Garrett
    Thunderstorm here in London
  19. Robbie Garrett
    First thunderstorm of 2014, and it's only 3rd January. Great start!! Powerful rain and wind and cracking thunder and lightning.
  20. Robbie Garrett
    Is it possible for the jetstream to maintain it's momentum and head south or in it's current position it would be strongest? Just wonder if it could provide some undercutting lows rolling into an easterly like Feb 2009.
  21. Robbie Garrett
    Was at least gust 70mph in London. I've got an email that one of our aircraft tie downs snapped and aircraft was blown 100ft sideways.
  22. Robbie Garrett
    Gusting 66mph or so here
  23. Robbie Garrett
    Maybe I should take you flying, you can sit in the right hand seat and I can show you how to fly
  24. Robbie Garrett
    How you know that makes me love you!! haha!
  25. Robbie Garrett
    FL190 is the cruise to Manchester area. Stansted.
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