Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Robbie Garrett

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,990

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Robbie Garrett

  1. Robbie Garrett
    I for one cannot understand why the models are struggling so much. It has to be the pattern we currently have going forward, but it's so close yet so far away from developing into strong Northern Blocking. If that low to our SW digs further SE then we are in, as long as the Azores ridges north.
  2. Robbie Garrett
    Big difference between last November and this November for us is quite clear. Last Year Steeper Temperature Gradient between the Azores and the Atlantic Vortex Structure This Year No structure in vortex Disrupted jetstream Looking at the GFS 06z you can quite clearly see some significant changes in the vortex that appears to be getting stronger in 192hrs, to significantly weakening by the end of November. Whilst quite far out you can see from 300hrs to 384 hours it completely starts to disintegrate, this must be Wave 2 activity affecting the vortex as mentioned in the Strat thread. 384hrs
  3. Robbie Garrett
    The last time we had a similar pattern like this. The amplification allowed for the downstream (Being the UK) - allowed this process to happen. It's only a matter of time before a pattern change, from what we have at the moment to something more blocked. I agree with Steve Murr's previous comments - 4 weeks seem's a bit long, I just can't see the current pattern holding out much longer with the jetstream being where it is. If it powers up then that's just the way we are going to have to go before something more blocked. I see the stratosphere is going through some changes, that would hopefully propagate downwards. I persume that in 2 weeks time the actual pattern we will have could be very blocked to our North(west/east).
  4. Robbie Garrett
    Looks like at 240hrs, quite a lot warmer over Greenland than normal according to the NCEP. NCEP also goes for a blocked out Arctic. It also shows blocking over Europe with the UK on the edge with blocking to our north. Potentially anything that does change will be very quickly, and I can't wait for the models to start showing an emerging pattern change. Just had a read over at the Strat thread and it looks like anything cold/snow worthwhile is going to be mid-to late December. How festive!! #
  5. Robbie Garrett
    Yeah definitely. My only concern is the Jetstream, it's quite far south on the 12z 10th output. But is it to powerful to allow WAA towards Greenland. Here it is on the ironically similar 12z 14th 2010 output. Needs to move into this position, but that will only show with a weaker CA Lobe? How was the Concorde journey? When/Where to/from?
  6. Robbie Garrett
    GFS 120hrs out on 10th November 2010 showed this. And this is what we got. It wasn't until the 14th that we started to see something like this come into fruition. Consider that low pressure to our South West and what it does on the 15th, and have a look at the Scandinavian high. Heights building over Greenland, watch for the link up of the Azores with Greenland. It's not as simple as that but if the Jet across Iberia remains the same and the other half follows the Vortex lobe over Canada into the Arctic then I'd suggest Greenland heights building near the 20th November, but the other way looks to be High pressure over the UK. I think the 2014 picture looks far easier to a blocked NH than the 2010 route. What happens this weekend with regards to the building of heights is what will likely effect the last two weeks of November. I see no major difference between the 120hr forecast in 2010 for the 14th of November and today's 120hr forecast for the 10th of November. Literally no major differences. Reading what Steve Murr has put, it's of similar thoughts to me - Day 8-10 looks interesting.
  7. Robbie Garrett
    Will be interesting to see what the MetOffice updates bring each week. As long as the vortex is split into two lobes with NH over the Artic/Greenland - I cannot see a repeat of last year. Although the positioning of the WAA towards Greenland could be crucial; I think if 84-120hrs verifies anything after this period at the moment being FI - the actual prognosis could be different. 4 years the models have come a very long way, so hopefully it continuous with rising heights. I think for November - look North not East....
  8. Robbie Garrett
    The potential is definitely there. I suspect the models will drop the idea very soon though and bring it back, just like 2010. I remember someone mentioning in 2010 the models struggled processing something and it defaulted to raging westerly before coming back for a synoptic dream 7 days from the event. Was it a shortwave that changed the models breifly before coming back online? Hope someone can answer this.
  9. Robbie Garrett
    GFS is flirting with history. Take a look at this, obviously the dates are different but only by a few days. Actually looking at a the synoptic in the future we are in quite a position moving forward. I seem to remember 2010 was pure synoptic. I actually think the Jetstream over the UK and western Europe is in quite a good position to allow the building of heights over Scandinavia and Greenland. If the low to our south west is to further dig southeast, then we are surely in a good position synopticallly for the end of November 2014? I expect downgrades, and upgrades if there's any fruition of a cold spell. It's just remarkable how the models are counting down to an event like November 2010. Not saying they two will be the same, just how similar the models are behaving before a possible event. 2010 - 78hrs away 2014 - 78hrs away 2010 -120hrs away 2014 -120hrs away Here's the NCEP clearing showing heights to our north, northeast.
  10. Robbie Garrett
    I seem to remember a mild period (Didn't we just hit 24*C last week) before a fairly wet period with the models counting down for two weeks showing northern blocking. Re: November 2010 Easterlies/Northerly before throwing away the idea then coming back with something even bigger. I am intrigued by the similarities of the two months thus far.
  11. Robbie Garrett
    4.1
  12. Robbie Garrett
    I've had 31, that doesn't include the ones I didn't observe when I was sleeping/inside work.
  13. Robbie Garrett
    My friend Sarah on her way to Stockholm from Heathrow just posted these of the Squall coming through Heathrow.
  14. Robbie Garrett
    Sorry to hear, it's been dire down here for many years. Only recently has it been awesome. Yeah I remember those late 90's too, very small and scared of those overnight MCS. Harry and Lauren remember them too thankfully
  15. Robbie Garrett
    Been by far the stormiest Summer in a very very long time...
  16. Robbie Garrett
    London earlier, taken by the BBC Weather team.
  17. Robbie Garrett
    I just left work at Heathrow. Constant lightning from different cells. Thunders here and there and oh torrential rainfall. I'm drenched...
  18. Robbie Garrett
    More heading northbound Nick? Cell to my South West and West have been moving slow. Poor vis to the south where you are. Cell over me and Oval Cricket is producing lightning every 5 minutes, raining heavy here.
  19. Robbie Garrett
    Deep rolling thunder and lightning just in the next post code. Flights still going through it.
  20. Robbie Garrett
    Thunder!!!! Quite a few active Cells in London right now.
  21. Robbie Garrett
    Raining quite a bit with Surface Based CBs in London, can't see much as there's plenty of poor visibility but very poor vis to my south at the moment.
  22. Robbie Garrett
    CB's going up in London, very slow moving with precipitation.
  23. Robbie Garrett
    Only need one now here need an overnight MCS
  24. Robbie Garrett
    The storm west of Rouen right now is huge, It's very very lively. Wish we had that here http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=nl
  25. Robbie Garrett
    Any chance of a new thread, this one is huge :O
×
×
  • Create New...