Robbie Garrett

OMFG!! That was incredible, I've never seen that in 15-17 years... literally 5-6 flashes of lightning in 2 seconds!! And a rumble of Thunder, come on explode... Still rumbling...

Looks tasty down there. Just had some lightning and frequent rumble of Thunder here in Central London (SE17) - nothing since 8pm though. There's a bit of convective high altitude stuff but nothing surface based, as of yet.

What's your location Harry?

I am pretty sure the way an MCS works is, that it uses the energy from one storm cell to transfer to another and the process just continues for hours on end till something kills it. I suspect the LI and CAPE/MLCAPE over the Channel will provide enough juice to send that MCS into oblivion once it reaches our shores. On Monday night the models showed next to no Surface Cape, however a little MLCAPE and that was enough to make sure Nocturnal cooling let rip. I spoke to an easyJet airline pilot who has passed a higher level meteorology exam than me, and he said the following. I'm up and open for debate, but I believe there's more to this than CAPE/MLCAPE for Saturday night/Sunday early hours.

Areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over France and then move northwards to affect many parts of England during the second half of Saturday and early Sunday. Although there remains some uncertainty concerning the extent of these heavy showers and thunderstorms, there is an increasing signal for a band of heavy rain with isolated thunderstorms to move north to affect central southern England, the Midlands and then northern England, whilst thunderstorms giving frequent lightning, torrential rain and squally winds are likely to affect parts of southeast England and East Anglia during Saturday afternoon and into the early hours of Sunday. Rainfall amounts will vary considerably, but there is again scope for 30 mm of rain to fall within an hour and 50 mm or more in less than 3 hours. Somewhere is going to get 90-150mm of rainfall!! Ouch! Hitting London at 1-2am

Well result, let's hope they are both wrong and it just head straight for the center of those two, me in Central London. HAHA! Latest NMM does say it's heading this way...

It was very good, but I just guess the amazing MCS storms we received in the 90's those storms that used to last all night, with driving rain and gusty conditions. Constant booming thunder and flashes of lightning making it bright outside. Those where the days. We can only hope and pray.

It's moving at 360/010* so would hit most of London and S/SE at 01/0200L Saturday needs to be a really hot day. My understanding from the met office discussion is the Jet stream if storms positioned correctly will push northwards into the South. Due to its angle they are very unlikely to head away from this travel... It's moving at 360/010* so would hit most of London and S/SE at 01/0200L Saturday needs to be a really hot day. My understanding from the met office discussion is the Jet stream if storms positioned correctly will push northwards into the South. Due to its angle they are very unlikely to head away from this travel...

It's going to be a radar watch event come Saturday night that's for sure. I think this could be our year. God I've waited 14-17 years for an overnight MCS. I was scared back then, now I want to enjoy there shear power...

NMM going for a direct Southern England/South East England hit on Saturday night...

NMM going for a direct Southern England/South East England hit on Saturday night...

All up in the open. Key is the Jetstream. Needs to move west or angle more better so it's a direct Southern England/SE England hit. 60 miles should do it, 3 days and 10/11 model runs before we can accurately see what's going on. Looking at what the models predicted for the UK the other day, for it to happen mostly during the day here for it to all happen albeit a few isolated storms at Night on Monday says accuracy with these setups is low, very low. http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/23444069 Trying to predict where and MCS might form is like trying to predict the next car accident, it's extremely unpredictable. The positioning of the jetstream on tonight's run warrants me to think it may form just over Northern Spain/Bay of Biscay during the later afternoon, moving up in organisation with the jetstream to cross pretty much most of Southern/South Eastern England (incl London) and into East Anglia... If the MCS does form on the right exit of that strong jet, it will likely have not enough organisation and I can see the Channel killing it. WRF NMM shows some storms forming in the later stage in the highlighted area, will these get organised though at the edge of the jetstream's right exit? I don't think so, need that jet to do option B and for these storms to be right in the middle of the jet getting plenty of organisation before they head north/NNE towards the UK.

I suspect the fact it's there is good news, but something very interesting to keep an eye on with this one. Potential to be one of those classic 1990s era MCS storms. Those ones that never happen really for the UK anymore. Full blown Monsters!! We need to keep an eye on it, as positioning is literally perfect for it to hit the highest populated part of the UK

MetOffice have a severe weather warning out for Saturday evening/Sunday morning and I'm not surprised, even this far out.. Massive MCS moving north and forming in France on Saturday according to the High-res GFS. I personally think the location/direction is wrong. I suspect it will be further west and take a direct hit of SE as per what the MetOffice say and not just brushing it. Something to be wary of and keep an eye on...

Regarding Saturday into Sunday. Cross posted from Storm Risk thread. It's what I thought may get hinted at sooner rather than later. Lots of CAPE/LI over the channel. Energy/Jetstream in position and wind direction favorable for a direct hit of a BIG overnight MCS. MetOffice currently says

It's what I thought may get hinted at sooner rather than later. Lots of CAPE/LI over the channel. Energy/Jetstream in position and wind direction favorable for a direct hit of a BIG overnight MCS. MetOffice currently says

Fax Chart is perfect this Saturday for some French Imports. Or anything from the Iberia's and Bay of Biscay.

Thundery entrance for the next stage of warm weather?? ECM and GFS agreeing on that. Low pressure over the western UK/UK as a whole till Aug 2nd. High pressure building in behind from the Azores...

London last night summed up very nicely by the BBC.

That looks to be caused by the cold front coming through...

Oh what a night.. Possible MCS moving up over the north eastern part of the Bay of Biscay, It's heading this way by the looks of things, http://www.sat24.com/?ir=true&ra=false&region=gb

This must have been the isolated storms that the Met office was on about. That was an incredible few storms. Waiting for the next lot...

I can hear it, it literally exploded over me mate. There's some organised stuff crossing the Channel now by the looks of things. going to get 30 minutes nap. Should be hear by then!!

Haha it was very intense...

MetOffice has an MCS pushing up through in the early hours on Invent. Looking good Harry, it's what we deserve!!