Robbie Garrett

Be interesting to see how this high pressure, northern blocking pans out this Summer. Because sooner or later that cold feed from the east/north east will get warmer and if it links up with a continental feed from Russia, maybe quite warm.

That's -8 Incredible to see this really, something is definitely up...

I am being as generic as apple pie, my thoughts are that we are probably going to have a mixed year, a very wet one... probably wetter than last year. Unfortunately the CFS daily was correct last year in terms of being a rather wet year, I don't use the CFS graphs which is what most people refer to. I look at the CFS hourly charts from the daily 1/9 monthly and take it from there. Averages are that we are on for another wet year, considering how dry the years before was. As unfortunate as it may sound, we are in need of some really warm weather, but where is the Azores high??

Just had a quick browse through the CFS, hate to say it looks unsettled all the way though till mid July. Probably going to be a rinse/repeat of last year though, with any good weather being this May/July/August.

Have a funny feeling that 2013 will be wetter than last year, January at 48.6 + February at 23.85mm so far for Heathrow. Compared to 33.4mm + 16.8mm respectively last year. So we are already well ahead of last year, however we did have an exceptionally dry March so let's see how this year plans out. Models indicative of a massive Greenland high, yep perfect timing for onslaught of rainfall with a southerly tracking jet stream .

Ensemble means showing a rather westerly dominated pattern, with high pressure to our southwest and a Jetstream straight across the British Isles. This takes us till February 8th. Resulting in near average temperatures across the British Isles. I don't mean to doom us, but I am not confident as I was, with the updated MetOffice text forecast for the later stages. "Temperatures for the rest of this period are not expected to be far from the seasonal norm."Even the CFS v2 1 monthly has backtracked on any trends of a North Easterly/Easterly in the mid-long range timeframe. It doesn't look good, but maybe another SSW would kick into play some colder weather before the STRAT reforms ....

3 snowfalls, averagely cold. All 3 ocassions it settled. Roll on the next one....

The models are still struggling with the vortex chunk and it's ultimate destination, I remember from my email the MetOffice forecaster that replied if ever there was a westerly bias built into the models, with lack of data from north/northeast and east quadrants of the country. I suspect as they said it may be something to do with climatology, hence why we are see Bartlett High in the later stages of the GFS and hence why the GFS defaults to what we would hate to see.. One thing to mention is that within the next 200 hours, it is looking very likely that low heights across the Atlantic with high pressure to our south. Like all year around, the models will change but just how quickly. It looks likely high pressure should start to build in the Atlantic and go upwards towards Greenland, for something mid month but as early as the first week of February.;

MetOffice forecast Day 6 to 30. There are indications that the cold air may make more advances towards the UK by the end of the period. Colder weather and below average temperatures then probably come to dominate once more towards mid-month. In terms of rain and snowfall, southern parts in particular will probably start wetter than average, but trend to nearer normal by mid-month, while the north will probably see drier than average conditions for much of the period. No surprise that the SSW will probably not be enough to make January 2013 a below average CET month, they generally turn things warmer it seems.... January 1947 was a warm CET month at 2.2*C What looks most intriguing is the end of February and into March. I suspect to see upgrades in the future regarding this, having a brief look at the CFS and it's indicating many things. Looking at just the trends, Greenland heights/Scandinavia heights and true blocking and undercuts. I think we are looking realistically 2 weeks of mild, wet and very windy weather. Something more seasonal for the British Isles. I suspect that a very strong vortex over Russia will allow strong heights to build northwest of Greenland come late Feb/into March. When was the last time we had a very good end of February Spell? I don't remember one in my lifetime.

GP, am I right in saying very similar teleconnections to a la November 2010? MetOffice fully aware of this it seems for colder conditions and frequency of snow events to continue into February.

Come to think of it, the last chart for next weekend would require some corrections. Not as much as last weeks for this weeks to be another snow event from France. Let's wait and see One thing for certain that is being overdone it the strength of that Vortex chunk over Newfoundland, it's been doing it for the last 3 bloody weeks and keeps giving us 940/950mb low's....

With all due respect, credit where credit's due Matt Hugo has provided a great insight past where we can only dream of venturing. He has access to ECM 32 day and provides great valued information to us. Obviously it's not nailed yet though, nothing is during this time. South Westerly/Westerly might be a massive snow event also and this could change to something like 1963 where the cold fights back and provides us with a good dumping. Snow reflects 85% of UV radiation, so it's going to be quite hard now for the Atlantic to just win... Models might be showing exactly what they where showing one week ago. This is last week's 18z for today 1900z And this is the actual chart... Support or no Support, this is the 18z chart for today. Go figure.... Let's see if this chart verifies exactly for next Sunday, as it doesn't look too dissimilar to the 13th's 18z...

Did you watch that 1963 documentary last night? Atlantic may make inroads slightly, but I can't see it being full blown zonal. We need that vortex chunk over newfoundland to dissipate and then some true northern blocking will come into place.

I don't see a breakdown at all, where are people getting this breakdown from? GFS operational is a mild outlier at 00z from 22nd/23rd Jan 2013. That's 3 days away, gives me no confidence at all...... If the fax chart at 120hours is to be partially believed, then we are about 2 weeks away minimum from a complete change in weather type/pattern.

Work should be quite today, thank goodness....

Fairly decent covering now. Definitely no weak affair this front compared to Friday, it's dumping quite a bit for light snow. -2*C also.

Talking of the Thames Streamer event of Feb 2009. Anyone got any radar grabs??

0800z - 1100z

Nope, UK low level. F215. 0200 to 1100 UTC Heathrow TAF at 1701z is showing temporary light snow from 08z, becoming light snow from 11z onwards. Probability 40% temporary of SNOW. Light snow, same conditions as Friday. Snow is in between that and Heavy Snow. -SN/SN/+SN Temporary means, short periods.

According to the Aviation low level forecast, we can expect widespread light snow and haze. Occasional 800 meters in Snow nearer the front, with occasional 200 meters in heavy snow at the front. A band of snow is likely to spread northwards across parts of southeastern and eastern England, as well as parts of north Wales and the north Midlands, during Sunday afternoon and evening. This will bring accumulations of 2-5 cm snow to some areas, and perhaps in excess of 8 cm towards coastal counties of southeast and eastern England. The public should be aware of the risk of disruption to travel. This warning has been reissued on Saturday evening to include parts of north Wales and the North Midlands.

13*C according to BBC next weekend into the new week/month. Balmy and mild. On other accounts London could hit -8/-7/-7 and -6*C on respective dates at coldest next weekend into the new week/month. Yeah right! Being honest, I can see the Atlantic winning but not the mild crap we are expecting. CFS and ECMWF are on the money with Greenland height rises post 240 hours. The effects of the SSW will likely ware off, and what beholds will likely be the way the synoptic's and ensembles predict in similar vain to November/December 2010. I don't think it will be till mid February till we really see those Greenland heights go for it... February is the coldest month of winter, snow is more likely during Easter (March/April) statistically. So in that case we have 1.5 months of Winter left, and 3 months of severe weather to be had... Mid month Greenland height rises??

They probably would have mentioned high pressure to the north or northwest. But not high pressure specifically over Greenland.

What's required to beat December 2010? As I'm seeing London hitting -6*C next week on a few occasions according to the BBC (MetOffice data)

Heathrow have closed one Runway apparently to get rid of all the snow. Flow rate down to 10 h/r from 90 h/r 6/10 #uksnow #W1C

Latest London City TAF indicating of Snow with gusty winds. Biggin Showing some Heavy Snow possible this evening for rush hour.