AutumnMists
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Yes that's why I said between the 12z &18z runs. I was making an observation which countered the arguments that there's disagreements in modelling. To replicate pretty much the same synoptic at 300+ hrs between runs shows quite a degree of confidence, no? If it was a Greenland high shown in pretty much exactly the same manner between runs, people would be crowing on about there being a trend!
People may not want to hear reality but they're only going to prolong their own misery in the long run.
Besides, I hope I'm wrong and if I am I'll gladly eat humble pie!
Another thing I should add, No one has been suggesting deep cold or anything like that before day 14.
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Excellent consistency following on from the 12z run of low heights deepening to the northwest throughout FI...
trust me, there is never any consistency for anything beyond day 5.
It's pointless digging out the mild pictures when you are ignoring a greater amount of colder or average pictures as you are simply saying that all models agree with each other.
Anyway, if temperatures are to get to average at best in the next 14 days, you can't ask for much more?
Deep cold doesn't come every year
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The outlook though different synoptic wise, does remind me alot of the start to Dec 2008 which was preceeded by a cold dry last couple of days to November.
The last few months has almost been slight copies of 2008
I liked December 2008, brought in a decent cold start and lots of snow for Northerners
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Manchester airport now at -3c
C.S
Apparently now on -4.0.
-2.5 here fluctuating because of the indecisive clouds.
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Steve,
I am 5 miles north of Newcastle and the latest charts certainly don't excite me. We have not tapped into any real cold feed yet and the wind direction keeps fluctuating meaning any snow showers would be shortlived - unlike the 10 day continuous pasting of 2010. However i do share your optimism for something special to pull off shortly. I am still waiting for a 1979 style blizzard.......
Don't be disappointed ... we don't usually get any type of cold like this at the start of December.
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-1.5 here .. no clouds yet
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One thing to note is the runs which place high pressure to the south of us really ramp up the vortex, with a lot of these ensembles showing the vortex centred over Greenland. Obviously,this scenario is a million miles away from what GP has forecast so we'll have to wait and see as this situation really wouldn't be a good start to winter IMO.
We are already in for a cracking start in my opinion (based on the fact that, on average, the daytime temperatures should be at 7-8'C.)
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Well, not the best day of model watching for some ... although these last few model runs have been the cause of much discussion over what's going to happen as we head out of the first week of December.
Here's hoping for another day of fun twists and turns tomorrow
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Down to -0.1 here ... unwelcomed overcast coming in but should clear before Midnight leaving a clear night.
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egret - thats completely not true. i have lost count of the number of times this myth is brought back. the models counted down to the cold from pretty well two weeks away on gfs and 10 days on ecm. thats probably why we have seen so much despair with the current situation. you dont need to take the time to dig back. i already did it on several occasions and i remember it fairly well. (in the second cold blast mid dec 2010, several ecm runs took us to west based -NAO with the sinking p/v. that was the only problem)
Perhaps he was getting confused between 2009 and 2010? Seems most likely especially given the timeframe.
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I was up on the North York Moors earlier today, around 1200 and drove through a substantial snow shower, nice big flakes. Don't know how long it lasted but it was just starting to land and I was too busy to hang around and wait.
I was up on the North York Moors earlier today, around 1200 and drove through a substantial snow shower, nice big flakes. Don't know how long it lasted but it was just starting to land and I was too busy to hang around and wait.
Hopefully a sign of things to come ... at least until Monday.
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Just a shame their is virtually a non-existant chance of that happening-
Be nice at t24 though-
Overall 90% of the day has been a very deflating model watching period- sadly.
Yesterday was an awesome day in terms of models and the day before was horrible.
Based on this correlation .. will that mean we are all smiling with excitement tomorrow?
It just goes to show how fun it can really be studying the models, unfortunately we have all had the experience of that devastating run that causes shock and havoc like many runs have done today.
At least one thing, no models show mild
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Very cold more or less everywhere in the North of England now and with clear skies for most ... I would have those scrapers ready for the morning.
As for this weekend ... slow and steady as she goes ... nothing much different compared to last night
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To me that 12Z GFS looks zonal and very christmas pudding esque, but the 12Z GFS is too aggressive with the Atlantic, hope its not going to be like early Dec last year, lots of snow on hills but not much here
I suppose in your location you get a lot of cold snaps which don't quite make it to your region and the one this weekend looks to be following that ... On a rather more fortunate note though I would definitely expect frosts and all round Wintry temperatures until at least Monday. The uncertainty continues, however
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ECM doesn't provide a brilliant one ... but more of a sigh of relief in that it certainly doesn't catch up on ANY sort of milder than average conditions for it's whole lifetime. Hence, neither does it show deep cold obviously ...
Uncertainty continues .. all those saying it's over are just being stupid if you think about it.
Short term anyone?
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Its going to be chilly and crisp for a few days,more than we had last year.
I will just enjoy the change in the weather for now.
As for the mod thread,i didnt know we were up for anything else but a change to slightly colder conditions anyway?
I didnt remember seeeing snow forcast?
I am hoping the even colder weather will come at crimbo!
Snow has been in the forecast for some for about a week now (for this weekend). Usual places receiving the falls ... a huge amount of uncertainty though
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Same with me in December 2011. Many areas were forecast snow on the night of the 15th/16th, including mine, but I got none. Two days later, I was pleasantly surprised to wake up to a covering on the 18th.
Anyone remember April 2008? Goodness me, that was perhaps the most surprising snowfall for me ... here in the North we did get forecast clear skies and a 'late' season frost with temperatures at around -2'C ... when we woke up the next morning it was quite astonishing (and localizationing ... I remember it being around 5 cm and down the valley about 7 miles away it was very green).
Always a problem when 'cloudy skies with very light flurries' is forecast .. in that you simply don't know what's going to happen and before you know it you may well have a coating.
The MOD thread is absolutely ridiculous.. there is no point. Do what I do, stay away from the models, stay away from the forecast, and whatever happens, happens - god knows how many times I've woken up to snow falling without seeing any prior forecast by anyone, or when the forecast was for snow solely for high ground (even the professionals get it wrong occasionally), and it's a lot better than the shambles that is the MOD thread.
For this weekend/Monday, I'm just going to wait and see. Snowfalls are too hard to predict in this country, and it's usually a game of radar and lamppost watching (good example is February 2011, snow forecast above 300m, woke up to heavy snow, and snow settled in Leeds city centre 30m asl).
Yay, a person with some common sense!
All they are doing over there in the MOD is talking about the 'mild' that is to arrive in two weeks time (that didn't seem plausible last night) ... despite the fact we have a whole weekend of Winter to look forward to.
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Was down South on holiday around that date and I recall it, just. Thanks for the memories as always!
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That's the basic thing people need to understand ... we were never in for a deep freeze and probably still aren't until at least Mid-December, unfortunately.
Here's for localized snowfall though
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Based on the way things have gone this week;
This time tomorrow, the models will be showing something very cold and exciting
In reality though, I think todays models just about paint the picture ... a relatively cold weekend but average or just below average next week and very wet, rain for most ... but it would be stupid not to rule out anything Wintry especially for the North ...
So now it looks like it will not really even be cold next week. Wet and average temps down south mostly, maybe one frost whilst slightly below average Midlands.
It is clearly a zonal setup next week with substantive rain for most, very much like we had last week. Nothing like winter. Astonishing turn around and very difficult to see us escape this pattern. Even Sunday week when the US is under another trough: http://cdn.nwstatic....264/npsh500.png we have lows spinning off into the Atlantic to stop heights building and the zonal flow continues: http://cdn.nwstatic....288/npsh500.png with HP pushing into the UK.
By mid December: http://nwstatic.co.u...605b6b30248f3e; still in zonal flow. Very wet is the headline and no sign of cold.
Its the reality of the UK, the Atlantic is King and the rumour of his demise is vastly exaggerated.
It is very unrealistic and silly to dismiss cold next week ... average Max for early December is round 8-10'C and the models are showing nothing of the sort ... more like 4-7'C.
As for mid December, it is far too early to be making a conclusion on that yet just on one particular run ... I can guarantee you now, that link you have posted will show a massively changed chart about another 20 times before we get to Mid-December.
Let's stick to what the models are really showing ... and not concentrate on the double figures in the South next week .... Low single figures in the North, East and Scotland is FAR more important.
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I would look at it relistically and that imo seems to far out to look, especially with out current forecast.
Hopefully.
That's going to worry me for days and days now!
Hopefully it will slip away soon ... seems pretty implausible I suppose ... But then again it could be a killer
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We cant even tell 96 hours ahead let alone further out.
Needs watching though. You wouldn't say that about something coming in from the opposite direction.
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Im happy with 70% mate will be good to see my first snow of the season
Still masses of uncertainty, and as others have pointed out, Durham in particular may suffer from a poor snow cover given the daily Max's.
We'll just have to wait and see
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It's a shame, Autumn is so underrated.
Although when most of it consists of rain and cool, it does get tiring.
Model Output Discussion - 28th November
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
At the end of the day, it's all about if this and if that ... it's pretty understandable not too make a decision at this time and therefore there is no point telling us to drown our hopes out, likewise it would be stupid for someone to tell us we're in for deep cold for the next few weeks.
Some of it is common sense ... but everyone understands where you are coming from and digging out information is always useful.