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Suburban Streamer

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  1. Suburban Streamer
    here's latest position at 8pm. 958mb And peak gusts Pub for me now stay safe all
  2. Suburban Streamer
    I just asked Anthony Sagliani on twitter (he has access to current ecm strat charts) His reply: Shows a potential Day 7 split, but then consolidates over North Pole. Nothing really significant
  3. Suburban Streamer
    Hi Tamara Wave activity has been doing its best for our hopes with the almost constant waxing and waning tag team of wave 1 + 2. I had hoped the current quite strong wave 2 might do the job but frankly it seems we need some kind of nuclear wave activity to inflict the damage required to be rid of the semi permenant Canadian vortex. Any other winter (or at least eQBO ones), this would have been sufficient by now. There is some suggestion of wave 2 increasing again at day 10 (roughly) but like you say, this winter has already proved that we require something a lot stronger and consistent than we have seen so far this winter, and for that, there is certainly nothing concrete. However i remain hopeful (mainly because im a glutton for punishment) until the end of March Could i also take this opportunity to thank you for your wonderful contributions to the various threads on this forum, very much appreciated
  4. Suburban Streamer
    Hi John, well at least its clear and easy to read yes totally agree. i dont do throwing towels! i'll be waving my snow flag until March 31st Plenty time to go yet. Agree about GFS too. too unreliable considering Strat trop coupling. tho having said that, if there is some downwelling, then NWP in general will struggle big time. which could equate to lots of teasing nice charts but nothing verifies, or some actual cold/snow in the UK!
  5. Suburban Streamer
    yeah 216 has potential. like you say wouldnt take much. been looking like that for nearly 2 weeks now lol. im almost as fed up of the word potential than i am of the rain! ECM picking up on the (temp) split pv perhaps? always optimistic tho
  6. Suburban Streamer
    yeah just like a computer, a restart usually does the job
  7. Suburban Streamer
    whats the asl over there if you know mate? im at 130m here and all rain
  8. Suburban Streamer
    use those precip type radars with caution. They use model data to guesstimate where snow line will be. So they often lie. As some are doing now
  9. Suburban Streamer
    yeah sounds good! or the flake count cup. i'm on a whopping 1 flake so far (way back in nov)! Good luck to those hoping/praying for a few flakes tonight odds against of course, but might as well remain hopeful
  10. Suburban Streamer
    i'll go over my entire winter forecast in march but just wanted to post this feb chart. as much as i didnt want this to verify, it does look odds on, for at least the first half anyway i still have my glass half full, and hold out a bit of hope for some snow in feb Its been fun doing my first LRF this season, lots to learn in March. overall not too bad for a first attempt. Temps my biggest downfall. Anyway, thats for March (full forecast is in my sig btw)
  11. Suburban Streamer
    This is from wunderground. only goes to 180hrs. ECM 0z: (about as useful as the gfs snow charts) EDIT: Just seen SK's post
  12. Suburban Streamer
    encouraging signs of wave 2 gaining momentum at day 9/10. wave 1 lingering nicely too
  13. Suburban Streamer
    anyone else encouraged by the longevity of current wave 1 activity. Last week (unless i've gone mad) i'm sure this was forecast to drop off but the 10 day forecast still shows some decent activity. Ok so its not the wave 2 that we all crave, but still good to see And on the topic of wave 2, perhaps just the slightest hints at day 10 of some resurgence at the very top? (bit straw clutchy i know)
  14. Suburban Streamer
    yeah we wanted more energy going SE, so the gfs sends a hurricane lol
  15. Suburban Streamer
    yeah i've been looking at MJO. i saw the latest NOAA mjo update isnt keen on the GEFS forecast, opting for a more incoherant signal next two weeks. however, a fair few ensembles do bring the mlb so one to watch. Anyhow, look forward to seeing those composites
  16. Suburban Streamer
    hi everyone. i understand the basics of ozone levels and the BDC - i.e. increased ozone transportation from tropics to pole can increase chance of strat warmings by reducing thermal gradient and reducing polar westerlies. (please correct me if i'm wrong) I spotted a small, but notable above average area of ozone in our part of the world currently. What i dont really understand when monitoring these levels is exactly how much ozone is really favourable and where? Any advice on this would be much appreciated Heres the current ozone: And current deviation from norm:
  17. Suburban Streamer
    Thanks recretos for the reply and for displaying the comparison is such a clear manner. I thought I'd wait for the official qbo December figure to come in before replying, and u are indeed correct - December 2013 came in higher than both November 2013 and December 2008. In fact our strongest December qbo value since the NOAA records start in 1948. Let's hope labitzke and her solar flux are correct
  18. Suburban Streamer
    this is better than most summers tbh!
  19. Suburban Streamer
    Stay safe everyone in flood prone areas
  20. Suburban Streamer
    The equatorial zonal winds look to have weakened quite nicely in December. Looks quite likely to be lower than December 2008 but we wait for NOAA to update the figures. November 2013 December 2013 December 2008
  21. Suburban Streamer
    u can see in this link exactly how long each phase of the qbo has lasted, from 1948-2013 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data
  22. Suburban Streamer
    hi all I've had a go at my first LRF this year. You can view it here http://wp.me/p3v9wo-25
  23. Suburban Streamer
    TBH i thought we had peaked in September after seeing a drop in October but Novembers figure shows that it strengthened slightly in November compared to previous month. But as you note, a slow reduction is beginning. Remember in 08/09 the west qbo strengthened again in December http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data November zonal winds: edit: just to add that looking at the past 4 or 5 days only, demonstrates the weakening nicely. doesnt mean much at this stage though
  24. Suburban Streamer
    Great to see the competition back. Fingers crossed for a few flakes this week
  25. Suburban Streamer
    ah yes love a bit of twitter, just added you. And thanks about the website - the idea was/is to have all info under one roof, particularly from a strat monitoring point of view - rather than opening a million tabs every morning. Its still work in progress and if yourself or anyone else has any suggestions, i'd love to hear. Parts of the site are a bit redundant currently, thanks to the usa gov shutdown, but hopefully that will be sorted soon. Yes i'm not sure i'm still physically capable of actual writing these days! i wonder if audio recording the MJO meeting is permitted? worth asking i suppose. If you get the chance to jot down a brief summary of what you learn this evening, that would be much appreciated
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