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Suburban Streamer

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  1. Suburban Streamer
    some great papers in here. You are both determined to never let me sleep! great stuff keep it up Lorenzo did u make it to the MJO meet? i couldnt make it, but have used the "suggestion" area on Rmets website to suggest another meet soon. If you didnt make it today, u might want to suggest the same - the more who do, perhaps increases the chances of it happening. Rmets do often record these meets and publish online, but unfortunately they dont have the equipment today. Someone i know is attending today, ive asked him to take lots of notes!
  2. Suburban Streamer
    Great to see the thread back. Fingers crossed for a winter heatwave in the stratosphere.
  3. Suburban Streamer
    apart from the noaa PSD maproom link, is there anywhere else to monitor MT events?
  4. Suburban Streamer
    hi everyone Just going back to the QBO. I remember GP mentioning some time ago that these westerly phases last between 8-11 months. This current phase started in March 2013 and has now more than likely reached its peak. I've also read a fair bit from various people suggesting a colder second half of winter compared to the first. Do we think that if we do see a colder jan/feb this may well be influenced by the change to a easterly phase qbo early next year? or at least a fairly weak westerly. Just to contradict that, i've noticed that stronger westerly phases (this years is the strongest since 1999) tend to drag on for longer (1999 phase lasted 16 months). Basically, is anyone ready to predict a timescale for a change to east phase qbo? http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data
  5. Suburban Streamer
    agreed Tamara Also perhaps worth noting that in phases 5-8 the Ukmo verifies the best (and phases 1-4 the ecm verifies best) that info from here: http://www.mri-jma.go.jp/Dep/cl/endo/paper/paper_5.pdf
  6. Suburban Streamer
    the MJO also doesnt suggest a sustained settled spell. We have been in (weak) phase 5 since around 15th September and forecast to move through to phase 6. 10-12 day lag brings us to the end of next week to see something more benign before turning more unsettled into first week of october?
  7. Suburban Streamer
    ever since our winters became "good" i've been nervous about the next mild one - which, of course, will inevitably come at some point. I just hope its not in my lifetime
  8. Suburban Streamer
    no but its what we would all like to see hi its all here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/64621-stratosphere-temperature-watch/ EDIT: or more specifically here: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/64621-stratosphere-temperature-watch/?p=1878117
  9. Suburban Streamer
    i would agree as far as weather in the uk goes. But october and november, as last year proved, can indeed give a clue as to blocking patterns in winter - using eurasian snowcover as guidence http://web.mit.edu/jlcohen/www/papers/CohenandJones_JC12.pdf
  10. Suburban Streamer
    i too will miss GP's winter forecast immensely. However, i have noticed since his departure that a lot more members seem to be having a go which can only be a good thing
  11. Suburban Streamer
    I have a confession to make - heating went on yesterday eve for 2 hours (don't tell anyone up north)
  12. Suburban Streamer
    thanks Isolated Frost for the above 2 posts - unfortunately i cant see any of the composites is it just me?
  13. Suburban Streamer
    NWP certainly seems to be picking up the currently forecasted MJO signal for weakish phase 1 as we head into september (roughly a 12 day lag). how far south any troughing digs is open to debate (as is my entire post) Composite for phase 1 and the t288 gfs 12z chart looking quite similar: Anomaly charts hinting at something similar around 11th sept, albeit, rather shortlived and indicative of a fairly swift return to something more benign soon after mid month (weak phase 2 mjo perhaps)?
  14. Suburban Streamer
    An excellent summary there Tamara (as always). Defo been a very tricky one to forecast and i think the met office did about as well as can be expected. Its not all bad though. Saturday looks soggy but certainly an improving picture as the weekend progresses. Sunday looks ok, especially north of the Thames which should escape much of any afternoon showers. South of the Thames look more likely to get showers but as always they will be hit and miss. Monday looks rather pleasant for all so fingers crossed on that one not changing!
  15. Suburban Streamer
    hi stephane Good to see the thread up and running i'm sure it will start to gather more steam as we head towards the all important latter part of the year. Does anyone know how Recretos got on with his GWO composites? i'll drop him a PM so he can stop by this thread when he's on here next. And MODS, it would be nice to merge this thread with BFTV's thread from last year, any chance someone could do that for us?
  16. Suburban Streamer
    excellent footage TEITS
  17. Suburban Streamer
    hi all just wanted to share my pics of the brilliant storm last night. i've been trying to capture lightning since forever so quite excited to have finally managed it! i put the pics in the convective thread: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77334-convective-storm-risk-discussion-23rd-july-2013-onwards/?p=2748196
  18. Suburban Streamer
    finally managed to snap some lightning last night and in a gif (click to animate):
  19. Suburban Streamer
    some convection appearing over london suddenly edit: i should have refreshed page before posting!
  20. Suburban Streamer
    skies finally looking a bit more interesting here....
  21. Suburban Streamer
    is there not a small convergance zone just west of london as the easterly winds meet the southerlies?
  22. Suburban Streamer
    Impossible to predict but I'll be glued to the radar that's for sure
  23. Suburban Streamer
    hi Composites are here... http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html
  24. Suburban Streamer
    agree that the majority of forecasts suggest a move into phase 1 but we should remember that the signal is currently weak and by the time it gets to a strong enough phase 1 (assuming it does so) it may well be early august so maybe worth bearing in mind the composite for phase 1 in august as well:
  25. Suburban Streamer
    this ssta chart shows the negative phase of the pdo very well, as well as the stregthening west qbo (since march). the other thing i noted, and wanted to ask you (or anyone else): the north pacific is quite warm too, i remember in previous years that when the central western pacific is warm but the north westwern pacific is cold, this temp gradient causes the jet stream to be rather amplified. Do you think that the lack of large temp gradient has/is contributing to the "quiet" jet? also, in terms of summers past, looking through the archives, i could not find many summers where we had a strengthening west qbo with enso neutral - 2006 was the last time and only a dozen or so in the past 40 yrs. is this something u have looked into?
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