Suburban Streamer

i think we are very lucky to have ian F posting on here. the problem is some people dont realise that the met can only comment on each run just like we can. we all know that model output can and does change from run to run, day to day. Ian's thoughts are excellent guidence but they can change. for now we are looking at a mostly dry cold spell, he has given his reasons for this and if the output changes then so will the met guidence. its great to see the met office analysing each run and during past winters i've always wondered what they are thinking while we are all getting excited in the MOD. its also great to see what drives their textual forecasts - i used to be under the impression it was mainly the ecm 32 dayer, but interesting to hear about the other models that influence these forecasts. and in early jan, with the SSW, it was interesting to see them use the guidence from Exeter boffins above all model output. i've learnt a fair bit from Ian's posts this winter i'm hopeful of at least a dusting by sunday, perhaps more tho i'm aware i'm north of this region so perhaps not best placed. I'd be more excited if i was living in kent tho!

it was meant to start as snow beacuse of the cold air in place over our region. Its the second (more meaty) band overnight thats gonna give the rain

the band doesnt seem to be making much progress east of west london, some moisture ahead of it giving some sporadic flakes but thats it really....

a few flakes here. its dying rapidly tho....

i'm in rickmansworth - should be snowing according to radar but bone dry.... btw i'm ONLY 7798 away from 8000 likes...so if a few thousand of you wouldnt mind hitting the like button....thanks

lol as if u didnt know u had 8000+ likes hehe

you are not predicted any so your hat is safe

dp's temps

thats what metoffice going for imby (starting at 6 heavy snow til it turns to sleet at 9pm). but it does seem to be coming in ahead of schedule. unless it stalls

hi i think the above chart is more indicative of snow that is already lying on the ground from sunday night, slowly melting rather than fresh snowfall tomorrow night. if you run through the frames from t0 out to t48 u can see the accum snow slowly retreating from the sw. for example here is the 12z nae snow accum chart at t0 (for midday today). nae seems to think the snowcover across our region is much more widespread than it really is (particularly further south)

just a quick point about the nae. i think it has performed extrememly well this season (for the majority of the uk). you do need to bear in mind that the very light pink (also true for very light blue) is sometimes so light that there is no precip, or its more showery in nature than nae charts suggest. I've seen this time and again over the years. i'm still hoping for maybe 3 and a half mintues (!) of frontal snowfall tomorrow before the rain washes away the 7cms i still have in my garden. as for medium term, if we are to have high pressure over us, i hope its a "sunny" high and none of that "dirty" stuff!

not me! one of the snowiest winters i've had for a while. Winter 2012/13 has been very kind to hertfordshire! i'm snow hunting until at least the end of the month!

Wow 10cms here and snowing!

Yeah will be fine by tues morning. Don't worry

Hi tom I've forgotten how much I get deducted for my height but hopefully I've got enough! Still snowing nicely I'll give my final total in the morning Edit: no I've not heard from jimmy btw

6.5 cms here. Couple of pics. Hopefully its all still there in the morning so I can take some proper pics...

Just measured 2inches (5cms). Roads, pavements all covered. Best thing is the trees etc properly caked:) Pics to come...hopefully tonight or in morning if the beer gets the better of me!

Really impressive here. Will post some pics in a bit

i've only had snow for about an hour now and its already given me a dusting. once that layer is in place it should settle faster. thats my logic anyway! temp 0c dp -1c

snowing nice here. quite dry flakes now and blowing around everywhere. dusting on cars, lawn etc temp 0 dp -1

dp's continue to make steady progress west ealier at 130pm now (330pm)

just reposting this from last thread... 12z nae 6pm - 6am click to animate i'm very much encouraged by the sleet here already

nae 12z first 3 frames - 6pm to 6am click to animate

woop first flakes here defo sleety now - earlier than i was expecting

its meant to stall, pivot then drop ssw in the early hours temp 3 dp 1