Suburban Streamer
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temp 3.5 dp 2 colder dp's making decent inroads west... midday now (130pm)
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looking at fergie's post in mod, met seem to be ignoring the nae 12z (at least until they see the 18z)
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i'm still waiting for the "fingers crossed" smiley....surely its appropriate for this forum!
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not sure that the colours represent precip intensity. if they do, there's no key on the chart so i have no idea! i think the main use for the chart is to show snow/rain
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here's the ukmo MESO model for 6pm tomorrow (courtesy of matt hugo) crosses are snow, circles are rain
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yeah the 6z was great - although nothing is anywhere as good looking as the gem!
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12z nae animation:
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much like this....
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nice midnight sunday chart
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by 6pm on 12z nae its starting to change to snow. very much like the bbc forecasts tbh, in terms of both timing and snow locations for our region. edit: by 9pm our whole region (bar the south coast) is under negative dp's
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the 12z nae precip accum chart is out. doesnt tell u if its snow/rain, just gives an idea as to where the heaviest precip will might be and same chart zoomed in, but a bit harder to read:
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and in contrast we have sleet here!
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lol. i dunno what some people expect from the metoffice. anyone can clearly see that todays warnings reflect the latest model output (high res). what are they meant to do instead? use a crystal ball? they do their best. the weather is unpredictable this pic sums up ne america...
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how did surey pop onto that list lol? always the optimist hey! nothing set in stone yet so might as well remain positive until the fat lady does her thing!
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i think thats why the updated warnings mention variable accumulations - the heavier precip will settle, the lighter snow probably wont. "Early rain over western Britain is expected to turn to snow as it spreads eastwards during Sunday. Snow cover is likely to be very variable, with some places seeing little settling, others 2-4 cm, and with the potential for 10 cm or more over parts of the Midlands, Kent an Essex, especially later in the day. The public should be aware of the risk of disruption, particularly to travel."
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hi teits i agree that the light pinks can be quite deceptive on the nae but looking at the accum snowfall, it certainly doesnt seem OTT at all. it is very similar to the gfs precip link u gave above....
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the faxes are all over the place. even the differences between this mornings updates and this afternoons are quite stark. just another example of the complex situation... midday monday from this morning: and the latest midday monday chart:
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yeah, it would be like putting a nail in the coffin before the person is even dead! don't know if this has been posted... http://metofficenews...w-this-weekend/
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best to wait til this evenings bbc forecasts because they wont have changed as a result of the 12z's yet. wont do for a couple hours at least (after the faxes come out)
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that very much depends on if you get snow or not. and since the "event" hasn't happened yet, perhaps its a bit early to talk of over-hype?
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surprised to see so many confident posts about position of low and snow/rain line. The lp hasnt even developed yet. and we are not even in high res territory. for better or worse, forecasts/warnings will change before sunday. The speculation is fun tho
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while each situation is unique, i agree with TEITS that lp's progged to track in a similar way to sundays low usually end up further south and less intense as we get nearer to t0
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U won't see any further changes today. But hopefully tomorrow will see some southward corrections to the warnings
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Hi Surrey That was posted last night and is more than likely out of date now, especially for the sw. Still looks good for our region tho (well most of our region). Updated yellow warnings should be out soon
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Been snowing heavily here now for about 20mins. Massive flakes
