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Everything posted by Eskimo
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Not really stupid, perhaps the conditions aren't necessarily favorable for any more snow tonight. Dew points look quite high.
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Never expected snow here in Hull. Really coming down. Temp hovering around 1C, which is 2-3c below forecast.
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Always rains here. I've been here three years and only seen one 10 minute snow event, it's absolutely dire. I've had to go northward towards the North York Moors to see more of the white stuff. It's a shame I wasn't here 6 years ago, Hull recorded 14 inches of snow!
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I should have picked a uni with a much higher altitude than Hull lol.
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Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards
Eskimo replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
For what it's worth, the precip is a lot further east than forecast (at least on the Arpege), might increase/hinder snow prospects for many tonight . -
Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards
Eskimo replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards
Eskimo replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
With dew points below freezing and thicknesses being very favourable, even lowland areas could cop a heavy/prolonged snow shower, judging by the charts. ...heck, even Hull could see something white. -
Temp drop of nearly 3C here in an hour in Hull...quite incredible. 3.9C at 8 o'clock, 1.2C at 9 o'clock.
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Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards
Eskimo replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I don't think you need 0C for snow, that just shows the freezing level...conditions would have to be exceptional in March to get an 'ice day' anyway. As discussed before, it's quite possible to get snow when temperatures are well above freezing, as long as other conditions are perfect. Nevertheless, I'm quite sure the GFS is overcooking the snow risk. -
Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards
Eskimo replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
What? It looks even snowier! -
Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards
Eskimo replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So I see the ECM also has that slack area of low pressure over the UK at the same time frame. Interesting! -
Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards
Eskimo replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Deep trough across the UK with cold air embedded, also with light winds = snowfest for some, according to the latest GFS. Wild swings in output, almost polar opposite between the 06z & 12z. -
Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards
Eskimo replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Are you getting the same problem with regards to copy and pasting? -
Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards
Eskimo replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Can't seem to post charts but the GFS 12z shows a far greater rash of showers pushing off the North Sea. Also low-res showed an area of snow pushing up from the southeast and affecting southeastern areas of England. -
Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards
Eskimo replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Wrong thread, however as it's very quiet.... Joe is notorious for ramping up cold and snow, with very little substance behind what he says. Although I'm not disputing his qualifications, he's pretty much the Nathan Rao of the US. -
Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards
Eskimo replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I know we are dangerously swinging away from topic, but if it's anything to go by, my parents in North Herts just told me it was snowing. I asked if it was hail/graupel and they notified me it was flakes (before anyone asks), and a few on my Facebook mentioning the same with the inevitable excitement. Obviously very localised but as Bobbydog mentioned, it has popped out of nowhere (model-wise) and has given some the chance to see a flake. -
Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards
Eskimo replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Thank you for clarifying Knocker, thought I was being too vague. -
Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards
Eskimo replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The orbital term has been used here quite a lot over the years. For example, a section of the polar vortex with a deep trough will often have smaller-scale features orbiting the main low, as they get dragged around the flow. Except this week will obviously be of smaller significance. For example: -
Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards
Eskimo replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
With regards to Daniels question. If you are relating to the small feature in the Irish Sea. My understanding would be that orbital lows will circulate around the main body of the stationary low pressure system. -
Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards
Eskimo replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS 18z allows for more activity in the North Sea. The chops and changes continue, and I'm sure they will for many days to come. -
Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards
Eskimo replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The GFS 18z allows for more snow showers drifting off the north sea, albeit light at this stage. -
Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards
Eskimo replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Do people not remember the 16th January of this year? When a small feature, mostly of snow came down from the northwest and 'dumped' 2-5cm of snow for many down the spine of the country? That was due to be quite a small feature, appeared only a few days in advanced, but turned out to produce more snow than forecast. I am a firm believer that if the cold comes, the snow will follow for some. -
Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016
Eskimo replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If it's any consolation, that chart is for 1am tomorrow morning and is the super-low res version of the GFS 0.5 high-res charts. -
Dew point now starting to fall here in Hull, from 3.6 to 2.7C in about 90 minutes. Air temperatures pretty steady at 2.8C.