Eskimo

Last couple of runs have shows that deep area of low pressure from the GFS. It it tracked 50-100 miles further south, a lot of people would see something wintry. Dew Points are very marginal for the North Midlands.

A very small area of snow pushed up from the south, giving Hertfordshire their first ever and only red warning from the MetOffice.

It's a real shame, that a nation so far north, as far north as some Canadian cities, cannot see a single snowflake during the darkest days of Winter. Obviously we live next to a big old pool of water that is notorious for the Jet stream & the the gulf stream, but the fact that we just can't seem to have a decent cold spell every Winter is beyond me, not even the small window of opportunity. I know we are only in early January, but i honestly fear the worst, hoping for the best & that happens every year. Last year we saw Syria, Lebanon and I think Iraq see snow, which means we are probably the most snowless nation in the mid latitudes, at least England anyway. Oh well, such is the weather in this part of the world.

The difference is astonishing at just 5 days away!! 12z 06z

Give Steve the benefit of the doubt, the low is slightly further south and so is the cold.

He also said the rain wasn't going to be as wet, to which me and mum both looked at each other went, "huh?"

The good thing is that the jet stream is shown to go much further south, leaving us on the colder side.

Minuscule details but the GFS is throwing out a better undercut.

I'd like to point that out that, yes, the ECM is still showing an active Atlantic with Polar Maritime air being the form horse in the latter stages. However, there's plenty of scope for reloads down the line.

Eyes down for yet another crucial ECM

I don't see the problem with the GFS in my opinion, yeah it's not widespread snow and bitter cold, but it's a damn sight better than this!

UKMO at 96h is a lot better!

For interest, and for accuracy. Here's what the ECM was predicting 7 days in advanced for the 29th on the 22nd. Tomorrow (Actual) I think that's pretty damn good

Indeed...quite a few perturbations which aren't too bad at all!

I literally said, the jet is further south than it normally is, which is a good trend. I don't know what you are grasping at here.

Even that's not bad, that would send pressure pressure to the south of the UK.

We always seem to forget about the parallel, near enough the same as the ECM, just with a much deeper low at 192h! ECM GFS(P)

Whatever happens, it's nice to see the jet so far south!

Okay Ian thanks

Surely there must be some sort of twitching going on over the MetOffice now? To be honest, it was a few years ago, but I do remember it all imploding at 24 hours which was incredibly strange. Marginal snow from Midlands north and probably above 100m from the ECM.

Really? At least the high is further north and stronger.

You have the high pressure to the Northeast and a low to the south, they act like a set of gears. Low pressure spins anti-clockwise and high pressure spins clockwise, dragging the cold westwards towards the UK. Ideally we need the low to slip under because it acts as a catalyst, really pulling at the cold towards us. If we didn't have the low, then the cold will just keep spinning around the high pressure across E-Europe and Russia and not really give us anything, leaving us in this kind of 'no mans land' of cooler temperatures but nothing special. Of course, having the low push underneath us gives much of southern England and possibly Wales the chance of snowfall as well, as the colder air starts digging into the moisture associated with the low. Hopefully this helps, as this really would be the pinnacle of bringing in a sustained bitter easterly.

Apologies, was looking at the GEM instead.

GFS is late on coming out...

A fantastic ECM if you love snow in my opinion. An okay ECM if you prefer prolonged cold. A couple of snow events (marginal on low ground) according to that run.