Eskimo

I'll do the same post when the hi-res NMM comes into focus as well. Mainly for observational purposes though

Will there be snow? Here's what to look out for if you are a beginner Precipitation Chart - Fair bit of precipitation around on Thursday morning, some of it snowy, even down to south. Upper air temperatures - Ideally in this situation upper air temperatures need to be around -5C, which is the safe foundation for snow in the UK. Here you can see that the majority of the UK is under -4/-6. Dew Points - Dew points ideally need to be at freezing, as you can see, dew points are below freezing behind the front and just above freezing ahead. 2m air temperatures - 2m air temperatures is the air that you feel, and here you can see that the north Midlands northward have the best chance, the south looks a little too warm for any falling snow currently. Thicknesses - Thicknesses ideally need to be 'blue' to make it easier to read. As you can see, it's looking quite marginal quite a few people here. Based on the values above, I think it's going to be marginal the further south and east you are, however at the moment obviously high ground looks very much favourable for snow next week or anyone above 100m from the North midlands northwards. Before anyone says, "snow can still fall at these particular values as well, not just them"...of course it does happen, but this post was just for those who want to know what it can take to get snow falling.

Remember folks, there are many more models out there showing different things. GFS for Thursday UKMO for Thursday

That was one of the weirdest days of model watching I can remember. High not really in a great position here.

Inter-model consistency doesn't mean accuracy. GFS could flip suddenly which can happen, or it may be on the money.

I honestly think that's one of the messiest charts I've ever seen. lows sprawled out everywhere.

I've noticed the GFS isn't handling this very well and it may be the case that the UKMO or even the ECM might be closer to the mark. However, prolonged cold spell coming from 06z specifically, as mentioned by Barry95, is not going to happen.

The 06z is terrible for a prolonged cold spell. It's showing sw-erly winds by day 9!

For some posters, It's almost as if they didn't witness the warmest November and December in umpteen years. The prospect of ANY cold should be exciting, regardless or not it's 'dry'. GFS 06z far better this morning than the 0z.

ECM looking a lot better as well, sheesh!

The best run I've seen since March 2013. Stonker!

Absolutely stunning!!

She? Oh I know what you mean now, "Maybe Fergieweather could SHED some light on the Glosea"

Well the Arctic high is still hanging around the place like a Croydon chav, which is good!

That low crossing Scotland has been brought forward about 24 hours, which is quite a significant change.

Tortoise and the hare, my friend.

Upgrade in everything there; the Greenland heights, the WAA, the airflow over Europe. Nice

GFS has got stuck, probably foreseen +168h and shocked itself.

Oh never mind about them, they had December to enjoy.

I didn't mean to sound arrogant, but that's generally what happens, you will see/feel a difference when the cold weather comes in. It's part and parcel.

When the cold weather comes in.

where?

Well the ECM gives southern UK a bout of snowfall on the last frame.

It was just two days ago you said things would change to colder weather. 48 hours later, you're writing off Winter.

That's exactly what the models are showing, but it gets replaced very quickly to a more Atlantic dominated theme. Nothing new unfortunately.