syed2878

Horrifying model runs today for the next couple of weeks. I think we will be at the mercy of the Atlantic it does not look good. Anyway, despite what the models are showing I wish all members and staf at netweather her a very happy Christmas and I hope you all enjoy your selves with family and friends on Sunday. Still all is not lost the Met office going for call mid Jan so let’s wait and see what happens.

Totally agree with this excellent post. The Met office will not change their outlook just on one GFS or 1ECMWF run I’m pretty sure that they have a lot more data than we have two hand

To be honest, this cold still hasn’t been all that it was dry for majority of us and looking at the model. I don’t think we will return to cold soon just my opinion though, others might view it differently

Hi Kasim can you provide us with a link regarding this so I can read to get a better understanding i’m sure lot of us would like that

I don’t disagree with that, however given Scotland’s position it is true that because they being up north it’s more cold and snowy up there anyway

Even in the most dire winters Scotland manages to get snow and going by today’s output and the mets extended forecast. I think Scotland will be snowy. Where is England Wales will highly likely to have rain. Personally, I don’t think it’s a foly to generalise Scotland be snowy

Hi Nick it is rather surprising they using the icon and Jma the thing is though if I right in saying that the jma is also used by the UK Met office quite a lot.

Hi BA does ec46 still have the blocky signal or has it lost it now?

He is right because majority of the country did it get the snow some of you may have so in that sense. This cold spell was absolute crap looking at this evenings, I’ll put it seems the mild blip we were all discussing could now become a mild spell and this evenings model I’ll put rather Dyer for cold before and during Christmas

Just before we get properly into the 12 hour runs here is the 10 day trend from the Met snow on the forecast for Sunday, but Atlantic to make inroads for the foreseeable.

Just before we get in to the 18h run of gfs the MJO DISCUSSIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED I MABE WRONG BUT READING THE ARTICLE IT SEEMS THE MJO COULD BE FAVOURABLE FOR NORTHEN BLOCKING. HERE IS THE ARTICLE. mjoupdate.pdf

I don’t think people are righty of December on, fi once our default pattern sets in it is quite hard to shift that pattern I think the UKMO will be on its own not only that but our default pattern south westerly verifies more often than not even at that far range

I do hope we get something this evening and tomorrow. Anyway, here is a couple of photos from this morning. It’s not much

Agree with this last few days. Had frost all day, but today is all gone. strange that

The cover we had some of it is melting away. I wonder if we are going to get more later or is this it for us for this cold spell it was good to see falling and settling snow which was not forecasted

Rather surprising that the BBC or the Met office app not showing snow on the app correction met app is showing snow, but the BBC still yet not showing any

Moderate snow here by Villa Park, leaving a good covering on all services on the weather apps this was not forecasted

Lite snow here leaving a light, dusting on all surface

Great evening of model watching again lovely charts for called lovers they think it’s all over it isn’t quite the fat lady not even warming her voice just yet. Off topic come on England bring it home.

Just been looking at NOAA 6-1 and 8-14 days discussions and forecasters over there going 40% of this afternoons gfs for the USA AND 60% OF ECMWF 0H RUNS I don't know what it would mean for us here though. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 40% of Today's operational 12z GFS centered on Day 11, and 60% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above Average, 4 out of 5, due to good agreement among the dynamical and statistical tools over Alaska and the western CONUS, offset by some disagreements in the eastern U.S. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

If I remember correctly, then the icon was the model that did quite well during the BFTE 2018 could this be another glorious moment for the icon and set the trend here?

Just before we get into the ups and downs of the 12 hour runs, here is the Mets 10 day trend. It is an interesting watch.

It has been great watching these models counting down the cold Synoptics I hope we don’t get an SSW this side of new yeah all the SSW can help. Sometimes it will work the other way as well breaking down the pattern we are in and bring back the Atlantic

What a turnaround from the ECMWF compare to last night I will say this though I don’t know how seriously to take DECMWF. It’s flip flopping around like a small fish in a big pond. At least the ECM is back on track until the 12 hours run.

Perfect synoptic output for the last week or so even sometimes model agreement but it I don’t think is going to happen just like December 2021 when models were showing wintry Synoptics but fell at the last hurdle sadly always the way for the UK