wimblettben

No but thats not the point! There are people on here who are getting worried to death over the models that are throwing out storms in the same calibur as the 1990 burns day storm. And I am saying and pointing out that the main forecasting orginisations are not showing anything like this for next week. Check out the latest country file forecast, no mention of a burns day type storm, just very windy with a focuss more on the rain and flooding issues.

However its just one model run, and could very easily change fast. To put things into perspective, the 1990 Burns day storm had inland mean speeds of gales to severe gales, and this was one of the most severe storms the UK has ever experienced in hundreds of years. The chances of this coming weeks storm being worse then the severe gales of 1990 or 1987 are pretty slim.

I think it is pretty likely that the models are just overdoing the lows for next week, and I am even more confident about this after seeing the latest JMA model again get rid of the one on Tuesday and swing back to one on Thursday-Friday. Flooding and rain looks to again be the main concern, however their are signs of the weather becoming more settled finally in a few weeks time.

I think at most this storm if it verified would be the same as the storm we had back in October last year for most places. As mentioned in the other thread though there was no mention on BBC Points West of any storms or severe gales for us just flooding concerns and more heavy rain.

Just seen the latest BBC Points West forecast and there isn't any mention of a storm next week so far. I saw a number of mean winds averaging from 13-17mph for most of the days, however flooding and rain was shown to be the main issue.

I just don't see it being as bad as shown personally. The only way I see it being very bad is that it deepens very fast without anyone knowing about it. Expect it to keep changing until nearer the event where a much less extreme version will happen. Even if it did verify it would probably only be the same as the storm back in October last year. Nothing too devasting like the 87 storm, just one that may uproot a few trees.,

Sunshine and cloud here with 20-30mph gusts. Had a max of 43mph on the house yesterday and 66mph up on Castle Hill. I don't think we have to worry about these storms showing on the models for next week as it would be very unusual for something like that to actually verify. I would imagine rain and more flooding will be the main concern as has been for much of this Winter. There are some signs of a change to something more settled in a few weeks time and, although I am not bothered and like the windy weather, it always means you have to also have rain and for areas around here like Somerset it needs to ease down now.

Very unlikely to verify!

Straight answer to that is no, it will not be anything like the 87 storm. This storm will have inland gusts of 45-60mph and 60-70mph on coasts or at the very most 80mph.

They have been like that for a few days actually as I saw last night that most inland areas only have 40-55mph gusts. Only the very far southwest of this region seems to have forecast wind gusts above 60mph.

Well I have allready spotted an error in their writing. Quote: 'Experts said the worst of the weather is due to set in tonight before a relentless onslaught of wind and rain over the weekend.' I'm sorry but this isn't the case, Gales are expected tonight for Coastal areas then Saturday will see the worse winds with severe gales and gusts of 65-80mph in the far southwest coastal districts. The talk of 150mph winds however is something completely lauphable and only an idiot with a brain the size of a fleck of dust would write this type of rubbish.

I am not from this region but I have to say that there are not even gusts of up to 100mph anywhere for the UK on Saturday. Very exposed areas in the Southwest coast possibly reaching 80mph but more generally 60-70mph Coastal, 40-60mph Inland.

Yes it is getting over hyped my friend. This coming storm will likely have inland 50-60mph gusts, some sites show even less then this. Which would be the same as the one on Wednesday. Quite a big difference to the 87 storm which had winds of 80-90mph+.

I would say a computer error although with some of what the models are throwing out at the moment I see a wind like that being possible.

I have to admit, these look pretty scary! I like very windy weather, but something like this would probably be enough to cause widespread structural damages on houses and buildings.

XCW wind map doesnt show that many strong winds inland, only gusting at around 45mph for much of the day on Saturday. Looks like all of the worst winds are going to stay way out west of here where they will be 60-80mph. If this is the case then this storm will be quite a bit weaker than the one we had on Wednesday as a result of the winds not really penetrating that much inland. Not shure about the accuracy of the site though as I have looked at it many times before on windy spells and found it to have the predictions either way over done or under done.

Silly Newspapers claiming this deep low over the weekend will be worse than the 87 storm. 50-60mph gusts is very strong, yes. But nothing in comparison to inland gusts of more then 80-90mph. As far as I am aware it will be practically the same as the one we had on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

I have a feeling that for us here the worst of the winds will be when they switch to the southwest.

I highly doubt it! I think the charts will keep swinging from downgrade to upgrade with this thing until it gets it spot on sometime tomorrow with probably something of a middle ground as it gets nearer the event.

That looks like quite an upgrade to me.

I don't see this storm being as strong as the one around christmas as I'm sure there were forecast widespread inland gusts of 60-70mph then. From what I can see on the Met Office the gusts are only actually showing to be between 40-55mph Tuesday night into Wednesday. This got me a bit confused, as we get these winds once every year and it isn't anything too unusual.

I don't think thats right. St Jude had predicted gusts of up to 80mph and there were many gusts recorded between 55-75mph across even inland areas here. Even I got a 58mph gust on the house which I have never seen before. It was probably and will remain the strongest storm we have had since the January 2007 one.

Don't get how somone could find 50mph winds boring. We rarely even reach that here on a pole 30ft+ off the ground, and thats just with gusts. I nearly reached it this Winter but quite a few areas near here had whole trees snapped or uprooted. Anyway it doesn't look good for flooded areas this week with the next batch of lows coming in, a pattern change could be emerging though as some models are showing height rises in the future.

I don't think you have to worry unless nearer the time the models suddenly revert back to storm force winds even inland again. Storm force winds at sea however are not that unusual and thats what the latest models have began to show as the storm is weaker. There is clear signs on the models of the storm not being as strong, will probably end up the same as yesterdays wet and blowy maker.

Don't get what all the fuss is about, its Winter. Expect it to be wet and windy.