Gavin Hannah

Indeed it does. But, as many of us have witnessed in the past, HP can creep up out of now where and set up shop for weeks at a time. Lets hope the GFS is overdoing the Atlantic this morning.

ECM again looking not too bad. Some decent cold weather over Xmas and New year looks on the cards. If only the weather would cease to be so bloody atlantic driven...

I've concluded that the models throw in shortwaves when they get stuck, just so they have something to work with.... Up to and including boxing day looks pretty straight forward, it's what happens there after that intrigues.

Cheers Frosty. I haven't been on much recently thanks to all the mild mush that's been around. So my main focus is on FI and what we could be heading towards come Xmas through to early jan. And I've decided to be only positive at this most festive time of year.

Agreed, all speculation on my part, BUT, if we rolled the dice and came up 7's, it could be a very cold month. If today's 06Z FI run from the 30th to the 7th verified ( ) and we struck luck with a SSW propagating more cold towards us.... It could be a very, very cold Jan. It is all if's and buts I know, but the consequences of such a long cold spell would be nigh on 'apocalyptic' <- get it? lol

Chiono is expecting a SSW around the 10th according to his tweet. Could we start the new year off in the freezer and finish it off in the freezer post SSW? Could make for a record cold month.

Take a print out and pin it up

Shades of Jan 10' starting to emerge on the GFS FI. And yes, I will be holding my breath.

Did anyone else just think the GFS 06z was like a wet dream lol!!!!!! Could we bank this?????

Hopefully this weekend will be the last above avg spell. I'm going north snowboarding between Xmas and early jan...!

Agreed. I reckon the flatter ECM will be the way forward. Oh and well done everyone for surviving the Apocalypse!

Just popping in to add Big Joe B's latest offerings. With a UKMET 144 hr chart. https://twitter.com/...7744385/photo/1

The GFS 00z pulled the dreaded Euro High out it's hat post Xmas. Nooooooooooooo.!!! Unfortunately, I've haven't seen any improvement in the output from last week. With yet again, only FI hinting at cold and a change in pattern. One would think that after such a good year for being British, we may have got a bumper winter from the Jolly Fat man, not a lump of coal?!

Vortex sits right over Iceland. Would give Scotland some nice wintry stuff. BUT... as per usual, in FI.............. I don't expect to see any return to proper cold or snow until late Dec or January at this rate.....

No fat ladies warbling just yet!

Agreed. The LP flattens out then reforms. I'm hoping the ECM is overdoing the reformation and the LP will slide right under.

Well, on the 00Z, the -5 was east of scotland, on the chart you posted, it's over Scotland. If i'm reading correctly. So, small but significant steps in the right direction.

Looking good for the North. And the South isn't exactly tropical. I'm seeing tiny wee upgrades from the ECM over the last few runs.

GFS loves to really wind it up. ECM much more attractive.

I agree with Frosty (Edit, I wrote snowdrift as I spotted his name in the list of likes lol..... far too early!) The question is, will be getting clipped by a succession of Lows through the rest of December, or is the GFS over doing it? It's a game of inches, and Joe laminate floori was def in the ECM camp last night, so, I'm inclined to jump onto the ECM band wagon too. I've noticed that the LP front is still slowing down this morning. Wet weather was supposed to arrive at my location early this morning, now, the weather forecast is not saying any wet stuff until this afternoon. Some blizzard conditions for the grampians which is good for the ski slopes. Having just viewed the ECM this morning, it would be nice to see the ECM flatten everything out just a little bit more. Not liking the LPs reforming out if FI over the UK.

And the ridging arrives at t.384. Cold pooling over Canada

So close.....]

What on earth is this all about??? That dongle on the LP coming of the East coast......

The LP is breaking down into smaller shortwaves. By t.66, there are 4 individual cells, one of which is really tiny and gets reabsorbed, then reappears lol.

GFS pushing everything further back by 3 hours tonight. Plus a strengthening of the Russian High. Milder air becoming ever briefer.