Gavin Hannah

Lol, oops, I meant 4.834M Though 8.43M would be a decent figure haha.

Yea SS.....> | | | BIN | |______|

A further gain in sea ice, up to 8.34M today. http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm Snow cover has been more or less redistributed.

A crucial fact of Ice ages which is often overlooked is that during an ice age, it's also a lot drier across large land masses. Of course, it takes centuries to get to that stage so I don't think we need to worry about that just yet. What I would be looking at is the possibility of another minimum period such as the Maunder etc. The tenuous link between extended zero (near-zero) solar activity and a colder N.Hemi' is a good topic of discussion. Are we entering one? Has it started? The solar max went out like a damp squib and the winters of the last 4/5 years have all had extended cold and snowy periods and it looks as though the sun is going to sleep. The changing nature of the Arctic sea ice seems to be driving/enhancing these winters across the N.Hemi' and a really good paper linked earlier discusses this. Finally, in regard to the above, I would urge everyone to assess the situation across the entire N.Hemi' and not just our tiny island. Being on the edge of the big blue pond, I think we'll always get the occasional sucker punch but, and in my opinion only, I do think the change begun in 2009/10. And while I could be completely wrong, I think it's going to be a while yet before it flips again.

Good to see the first snows of the season on the munros. :-D

The sun is currently flat-lining with regards its output atm. The sunspots are almost all gone and that can only bode well for the arctic as we get deeper into autumn. Unlike last autumn (with a higher sunspot count and solar activity) the cold has remained in the Arctic this year and it will only get colder as the days get shorter.

I know its still too early, but that niggly voice in the back of my head says that PRELIMINARY indicators are pointing to another cold winter.

Indeed, the earlier and bigger the gains, the better. Better to have a white Nrth Hemp as early as possible so we're not playing catch up come December.

Here's last years chart for this date, for comparison.

That's a nice dumping of white stuff. Sea Ice extent up to 8.26 million sq KM. http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

Lets just hope it doesn't get 'locked up' with a strong PV this winter. Otherwise it will be a loooooong desperate winter of chart model watching.

Arctic Ice sitting at 4,809,288 today. Only 9288 from falling below 4.8Million SqKM

That comparison is like night and day lol.. the Siberian side of the Ice pack def seems to be the coldest atm. Having said that, todays image shows some rather decent Melting of the Ice. Where the Ice pack touched land yesterday, it's retreated somewhat. The freshly frozen ice around the edges would still appear to be susceptible to the weather.

I always post this video, every year. As it really gets me in the mood for winter!

Us Solar Watchers have been banding this info around for the past 3-4 years now. It will always be met with criticism from those that don't support the ideas above, but, like others have said...only time will tell.

I'm assuming that what actually has occurred is that for a very brief period during the night, it was cold enough for some slushy type sleet to fall from the skies near the summit of Cairngorm Mt. The only thing tabloids are good for is.... wiping ones own A*** after right good number 2.

And so it begins.... hehe

NICE! http://www.snoweye.com/ <--- Over 5000 Cameras from ski resorts. http://webtv.feratel.com/webtv/?design=960p&pg=519378F0-A62A-49E4-8095-B30D2BB58829&cam=5692

Don't the models err on the side of caution for the LR stuff? Settling for a 'best fit' scenario? Meaning that what we end up with could be colder/snowier or milder/wetter than whats currently being shown. If so, then the CFS could be underplaying the extent of the 'Average' start to winter.......

Scotland never floods We bottle it and sell it lol...

Lol, compared with normal spots, they are tiny and I was merely emphasizing the smallness of them lol

The first snowfall across the munros next week!! Lovely charts Robbie, can I book them please!!!

Just watched the Beeb weather forecast... Potentially the first major Autumn storm this sunday. It looked a lot more dramatic on TV lol.

Ice pack showing signs that the melt has 'bottomed out'? While more snow across Russia and northern Canada. http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

I've always been an advocate for the sun being the main influencer/driver. The only question for me is, how much lag is there between the suns activity and its effects on the earths weather. Then, of course we need to ask, how is human influence augmenting the suns effects.....?