Gavin Hannah

Can I just give a big thumbs up to OldMetMan... Outstanding analysis, and yes I am biased towards cold, BUT, I am very much liking the post above. As highlighted by a lot of members the GFS is very much biased to Atlantic weather and has struggled recently. This incoming LP has slowed and filled in a little more every run.... Here are you thumbs up OMM

After the ECM, Lets have a pub run that's really on one tonight.!!

IMO, the models have really struggled to model anything past day 3 this past week. This incoming LP has been very poorly handled. Never mind the LR stuff.

More like playing a miracle escape from behind the black and nudging a red......

Food for thought. Joe laminate floori â€@BigJoelaminate floori Expect GFS to "correct" west as it is now shifting emphasis to the last short wave in the train. ECMWF already stronger looking

It has to be said, the warmest part of this weekend will be from early fri to late sat. After that, we are back under cool air. It probably won't be frosty but it certainly won't be mild for any longer than 36 hours or so in the south, and perhaps less than 24 in the North. Temps looks set to stay cool then until at least Tuesday, which at this stage, could easily change if the GFS has overestimated the temps. As for FI, would be nice to see GFS send the lows further south and undercut. This is the pattern that Netweather forecast for January, so will be keeping an eye out for trends towards this pattern. And we all know the GFS loves to ramp up the Atlantic.

Oh is it?? I thought it said up to 21st. And yes it can change at a drop of the hat, but this is what it's showing atm.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/278921720159694848/photo/1 Global temp anomaly up to 21 Dec.

On any other day, this would undercut. I mean, look how flat this low is...... Very minute differences at t.144. This is getting old hat.

This is what the Netweather forecast is hinting at for mid January. Would be lovely to see this develop by the end of the weekend however.

If Carlsberg did winters..... they'd probably be the best winters in the world!

Phhfffffftttttttt........ The only slight, minuscule, microscopic, shred of hope we have of avoiding a stagnant pattern is if the models are consistently wrong about the path of the LP. If we get to fri/sat, and it starts to undercut rather than retrogress north west-ish, then we may have a teeny tiny weeny bit of hope glimmering through the Foreboding Door of Despair.

"....and another one bites the dust....." It could be BBQ for xmas dinner.

If that second Low is quick enough, it would be able to get in behind the first and under the HP. We need to get the Canadians to blow hard to the East.

It is indeed weakening more quickly. As ever, it will come down to minute details such as shortwave activity. The ideal scenario is for shortwaves to get ejected under the HP across the continent.

Could be. At 123. its looking a lot better. Ideally, if that LP can keep getting sucked under, it would drag the smaller one behind it helping to deliver a nice flat pattern with easterly winds for the north, but westerly for the south. I don't think it wants to go though.

Two shortwaves, will most likely gang up to create a new LP and it's rinse repeat. Hold the freaking fone! Is that the HP trying to link up with Greenland at 114......? Lol...I may be getting too excited at the smallest things There is much better amplification from the Azores towards Greenland also at 117.

The Jet stream is trying to send it under the HP block. But, the LP just isn't squeezing by.

Will help to keep temps a touch lower as it recycles colder air to us faster than a cell further out west. As for FI.... no clue. The cell center transfers to over the UK which flattens the northern flank of the LP. Keeps colder air closer to us.... interesting to see what happens down the line. Not as much amplification either.

Exactly. I'm taking my GF to Aviemore in January so I can go snowboarding (She skis ) . My board only got used twice last year, so there will be no jinxing lol.

ECM temps trending colder towards the end of the month, while the precipitation trends up... time to dig out the brolly again.

Well, It will be interesting to see how the remainder of the month pans. Just watched netweather winter forecast and they are going for cold spell from mid january, in line with wave activity affecting our weather in 6 week cycles. Goes someway to explaining the cold spell we've just had. Chiono may be able to clarify what exactly they are relating to. I'm not the person to ask lol. But the the pressure charts looked favorable for mid january. High pressure in Northern Europe and LP in Southern Europe. Picture the LP undercutting at the weekend and that's what it resembled. They also forecast below avg temps for december, and as it stands, it looks like remaining avg temps at best which would be a feather in the cap for the Netweather team as the December monthly CET would come in below average.

I couldn't keep away lol. So everythings par for the course regarding the LP arriving. How far south will it go before arrival?? Only time will tell. Please correct me if get anything wrong, I'd like to highlight a couple of features regarding the incoming LP that I think will be key in determining what will happen next weekend and beyond. The LP just breaks over the UK. The HP to the east just puts up a barrier and shouts "You shall not paaaasssss!". The GFS is constantly nudging the system south as we approach t.0. The movement south of the LP should allow it to squeeze under the HP, but HP to the south is proving difficult to budge. This is why the LP is just doing a Kylie Minogue on the spot which causes the northern edge to bulge out northwards, and cut off the cold air. IF, and it's a big IF, this LP can find a gap between the two HP cells, it may cause enough flatttening out to allow more of an undercut. It could also do with telling the small shortwave/depression following behind to pi** off and allow the HP under the LP to ridge up to greenland behind the LP. So, If that's all we need, then I rate the odds at about 2000/1 ?? Any takers??