Gavin Hannah

Well, the winter of 09/10 was preceded by 260 days of spotless solar activity. We are now almost spotless (again if you use laymans, it is already at 0) The latest solar disk shows two teency weency spots you would need to dig you magnifying glass out for. http://www.spaceweather.com I follow Joe B on twitter and unlike some other forecasters, his stuff is at least based in science. How accurate he proves to be, well, only time will tell.

I still maintain we're in the cycle of 3 cold winters to 1 mild atm. At least for the next 5 years. So, more chance of an average to cold winter with at least one cold/snow event. Last winter had it all, freeze/snow, thaw then epic freeze/snow at the end of winter.

Sunspot count is almost at 0, or is 0 if you use laymans count. If the solar max continues to fizzle out, it could have an effect on this years winter weather?

If Greenland lost it's ice sheets then that would be a disaster for sea levels if i'm not mistaken? The arctic sea ice melting actually lowers sea levels i believe, whereas, if Greenland were to become ice free, sea levels would rise considerably.

Sunspot count approaching 0. http://www.spaceweather.com/

I can honestly say that I don't pay enough attention to the science regarding climate change, but I do know the Joe Bastardi is constantly tweeting Anti-AGW stuff. Citing various different resources etc and bashing the AGW subscribers. I feel this is a debate that will run and run for some time yet.

^^^ Woah, I bet those journalists feel like they just got torn a new one lol... Embarrassing. ^^^

I have always had the feeling that the earlier we see a HP block over Greenland/Scandi then, the later into Winter it is before we see a cold & snow event of the past few winters. To me, it seems that just as we approach winter, the block gets disrupted and it takes a month or two to reform. (going on the last two winters) Far better to have a mobile pattern to start Autumn with and a better chance of a prolonged HP block to start winter off with (2010), rather than having the HP block throughout autumn and for it to get blown out by westerlies just in time for winter starting.

Perhaps the lad would have been better off using the following ... "Hurricane strength storm" rather than "Hurricane".....And lets be honest, We usually get at least one belter of an autumnal/winter storm each year.

Having a look at the IMS images, I'm thinking we could see a slightly earlier start to the refreeze this year?

I forgot to NOT just link the images as the update daily lol. Anyway, yeah, that is a good dumping in the Himalayas.

What I am interested to know is.. How will the major fires in the US contribute the global weather pattern? There's been an awful lot of ash and smoke been released into the atmosphere (On a par with a small volcanic eruption? minus the sulphur?) Could have an influence on how weather patterns develop in the US and then further downstream?

It aint cold till your eyeballs freeze over.

iceagenow.com or whaterver the site is lol...?

Had to do a double take on todays chart compared with yesterdays, but there is def some ice expansion on todays image. Not sure if its an overall gain, but very interesting.

The 09'10 winter was best for us here in the west regards snow, but, as for drifts, will never forget driving up cairngorm mountain to the slopes and there being 15-20ft snow walls either side of the road. The result of digging the road out after a 3 day storm on the mountain. Epic!!

25th Sep eh.... Will be keeping an eye on that then.

Looking at those charts above, that would suggest blocking to our north and west. Ala 2009/10 and 10/11.

White dots in Scandi... https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B3hD3l_JITzoRlk3SGhTMmFoMWc/edit?usp=sharing

KaBLAAM!! And I'm back once more for the winter madness!!! Hopes: Snow and lots of it. Gut Feeling: We are in a trend of cooler than average winters with the odd mild one for the foreseeable future. This year? EPIC COLD & SNOW! (IMO - not based on any data) Hey folks, I'm baaaaack. So I do think we are in the pattern of one mild winter in three atm.(So a reversal of the awful 90's drudgery) If you take the last 4/5 winters in a row into account, then I think, from memory, only one was a damp squib with the others having at the minimum, a 2 - 4 week arctic blast for the majority of the country at some point. These patterns are cyclical and there have been periods throughout history where colder winters become dominant for period of time, then milder, then colder etc... The Solar Max has been utterly mince and I believe we've passed the peak. So if you're an advocate for solar influence like me, then we could be heading for another cold one. However, I'm unsure how much lag there is between solar weather and observable effects here on earth. How will the recent summer influence our winter? Well, while it was fab to have a decent summer longer that two weeks for the first time in years, I reckon that's down to law of probability rather than any developing trend. Soooo, these are my thoughts, make of them what you will.

While I welcome a return to more seasonal temps, having returned from a failed snowboard trip up north. (Cairngorm summit reached 13 degs last night), with regards to long range easterlies etc.... not holding my breath.

Absolutely f**king typical that the two days I planned to go to Aviemore (Thurs, Fri) we get above avg temps!! I mean cmon!!! GAAHAHGAHGAGAHAGAGHAHGAGHAGHAH!

Going away on the 3rd Jan to Aviemore for snowboarding on the 4th Jan. The modeled HP makes me want to tear my eyes out. So F**king sick of being bombarded by S**ty wet, windy, mild muck! As soon as I can, I'm leaving the UK and not coming back. Austrian Alps are a calling.

What are the chances that the Azores high could do a Beast from the East and do a swift about turn at t.44 hrs? Or are the models better at handling an Azores HP than they are at a north/north easterly incursion?

Just goes to show that you can have all the positive background signals you want and it won't matter a jot! Aside from the high ground getting a freeze thaw freeze cycle, nothing cold or white anywhere low lying. Quickly becoming brased off with the fact that our little island just seems to be getting drenched constantly. We will sink if it keeps up. And unless we get a vast improvement in pattern for spring, all the farmers are going to have to switch to growing rice.