Gavin Hannah

Went raking through the Archives to see how we were setup compared with the winters a couple a years ago. First, 6 January 2010 - Just before the Epic cold arrived. December 15th 2010 - again just before the epic cold arrived. Our current setup. Both of the previous two cold blasts had HP parked just off our west coast... If we can find any of that again this winter, then it'll be time to get the champers out. Until then, I fear we will struggle to get any significant cold and snow that isn't just fleeting. That said, the first two weeks of December this year have been fairly cold with some decent snow across a portion of the country. Will it be the last? Or will we find one of those hidden gems above in the next few weeks?

OK, if the extreme FI came off for Xmas, Id be happy lol. Night all.

Only difference is the angle of attack from the Atlantic at t.180. See you all in a few days. Look familiar?????

Time to stick this one in the bin.

Indeed it would be bad flooding, but it looks like the Low will just grind itself to death over us. I would expect the METO to be putting out flood alerts towards end of the week. Much better undercutting. Could work in the long run, but it looks like enduring some pretty awful weather for 3-4 days. At t.138, that Low is completely cut off, it doesn't have anywhere to go but SE.

There is only possible solution, I can see, that can bring us the cold. That Low has to sit in place over us and let the cold envelope it from East, North and north west. Once it's filled in, we may be left with some pretty cold air again. This run looks like it may pull that off.

Going to see how this plays out up to around t.144. Then I wont be back for a few days.........

Pfffffft..... Check out that Low just grinding up against a massive wall of HP. Stretching from Siberia to the Azores.... It looks like a baseball mitt catching the ball just before it left the park.

So according to the pub run, from t.57, Scotland is set for a snow event. Good news for last hurrah before the low arrives. At t.69....

One mans freezing is anothers tropical lol.

Well we're t minus 9 mins and counting.... "It's the final coutdown duh duh duh duhhhhhh! do-do do-dooooooo"

Here's a model showing where all our cold has gone..... https://twitter.com/...6700032/photo/1

If the snow is deep enough then yes, I would say it would be lol.

There was a FI Xmas beasterly on last nights Pub run...........

I think we all need to retire and reconvene for the Pub run. The last two have been pretty good, it may deliver some Yule tidings!

One posibility is if the HP can put a beat down on the LP and link up with Greenland. A flatter easterly would still give us some cracking weather. I don't see why that LP is extending towards Iceland once it hits the UK. The natural flow would take the LP south east and under the HP.. Damn fickle mother nature.

A possibility that cropped up last night was the LP throwing off shortwaves into the Continent which in the longer run encouraged the HP to creep westwards. It would mean some wet and windy weather in the short term but it's a better scenario than LP after LP fizzing out over the UK.

I like your positive thinking, and I'm trying to remain as positive as I was last night.. but after that 12z....

The 12Z made me want to tear my eyes out..... That Low looks like doing some serious damage to the Ski slopes by the end of the weekend. Only the ECM keeps Scotland under colder uppers until end of Fri but the milder air could really put a dent in the snow cover. Unless we get a miracle.... prepare for some wet and windy weather by end of the week. Once we get to day 5+, it's any ones guess what will happen. I think a retrogression of the LP NW is the only thing that will allow the Easterly HP to advance westwards. The danger is that the LP just fizzles out and is replaced with another one.

Ahh, I'm off for the night. What a run!!!!

That's whats driving the LP south and elongating it I believe. Without it, we could end up with a Jet ploughing straight into us. A Beasterly in time for XMAS!!!!!

...And he's put the white behind the black...!! (at t.216 lol)

It's going to be a drawn out affair. Those little shortwaves ejected over the continent are dragging some of the LP energy out with them. It's only a short step away from becoming a full blown slider.

Ok, at around 168. My assessment is that the Low retrogresses back west alot quicker and the HP to the east advances further west. It's another upgrade and another step in the right direction. Still no sign of a slider operational. The air over the UK only briefly comes out of the 0 line. It's by no means going to be hugely mild. God this is exciting!

Second shortwave about to follow the first into the Med. Actually, more like across france/germany.