Gavin Hannah

Can I choose to pretend that never happened lol? I do remember wearing a t-shirt to a fireworks display which was rather an odd thing...

I hope you saved a screenshot just in case it turns out to mild slush lol. I've hit 100% Colder. Just because I'm an optimist.

Well, we know what happened later in the winter So if we get a +20C late October == Epic winter with snow and ice... That is my logic and I'm sticking to it On a side note, Saturday was really nice, I actually got a little sunburnt as I was out all day walking. It's a tad colder today though.

Very interesting read on the AMOC here: http://www.eoearth.org/view/article/150290/ with links to studies / references. One section discussed the effect of large land based ice sheets breaking off into the ocean. And if I recall, quite recently, the Greenland Glacier (forget the name) shed a huge chunk of ice into the N.Atlantic. Would be interesting to do a comparison of freshwater being released into the Atlantic compared with 30-40 years ago. Also, not sure if that bit where it says temperatures changes of 10 degrees is an increase or decrease, or if it varies by region.

I think many of us have been burned too many times by the Jet to take 'odds - on' trends at face value. It seems we need to load the dice in our favour to get those magical moments to fall just right. Ideally, we want the sort of HP setup in image two to take hold late december.

The strength of the El Nino is impressive to look at. And the eastern seaboard looks like it could be nice for a dip with those temps lol.

That's what annoys me about damn tabloids. They always take stuff out of context. Just because something is 'possibly associated' with contributing to condition x, doesn't mean it will automatically happen. That said, would love another smowmageddon!

Incase you haven't seen the Mail. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3234605/Brace-cold-winter-Forecasters-warm-recent-bad-weather-start-powerful-El-Nino-phenomenon-1950.html They have some pretty pictures as well. And there is a bit about a Tornado in Northhampton yesterday.

Ooooooo that is eye candy indeed. Almost like a noreasterly making it's camp over the UK.

Here's hoping!! A 2010 winter would be very nice indeed. Or and 09. IT's been 4 years of ramping and moaning about our cursed luck in here the last few years. All those nearly scenarios that failed to materialise.

Those darn pesky varmints!! Lol. Looks like HP for the weekend coming. Just transitional or something more permanent as you say?

I can say down here that the berries have been in abundance this season. The brambles in particular have been impressive. Trees though are finally starting to turn. A proper autumn week this week too.

From the same article above:

Aaaannnd I'm back! Wow, looks like the north west passage was almost completely open this year.

The GFS output almost reminds me of the great let down a couple of winters ago where at around t.48, the promised N'easterly that looked set to bring severe cold and snow simply vanished.... The last few runs on the GFS models are heartbreaking. Even the Xmas cold shot has been downgraded while the period after is looking stormy and very wet. I know the past weeks output has been very promising, but this isn't the first time I've seen this happen, nor do I expect it to be the last. :smiliz46:

Wow, in 24 hours it's all gone all pete tong on the charts for the Xmas to New year Period...... Where did I put those anti-depresants??

My bad Ronan lol, Probably gona give it 55%.

Well the 12Z just rocked! The Greenland ridging is just not getting a chance to dig in so this will be an interesting period of model evolution for ther period between Xmas day and New year. My esitmate for low level snow on Xmas day.. Scotland 60%, England 50%, Wales 50% Those shortwaves developing off the north coast bringing lots of snowy goodness from boxing day onwards.

I think this describes most of us in here when chasing after that fabled Acorn. Or snow in our case lol.

Fair enough. 17 days into Dec and we're already at 129 pages lol.

That looks a bit conservative if you ask me...

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-country-set-worst-4797980 ........... I know it's the wrong thread but since fergieweather mentiond Exacta....hehe.

The output is pretty consistent upto the weekend. It's the finer details that will get nailed down for Xmas day itself this weekend. All, in all, it's still looking "Very promising" for Xmas day, boxing day and perhpas Xmas eve for some. We need to look to the Eastern Seaboard off Canada this weekend. What happens here is going to determine what kind of cold snap this will be, be it fleeting, sustatined or epic builder.

Post Xmas on the GFS P is an absolute stonker! It is rapidly becoming my new favourite model. The key difference to the 18Z is that the ridging is extends further east which puts the uk right in the firing line rather for heavy snowfall rather than just missing out. 00Z 18Z The presence of a few shortwaves off the north west coast also aid in setting us up for some really fantastic FI charts if cold and snow is your thing.

Everyone ready for the 00Z runs?? Good, see you all in here tomorrow when we start this all over again lol.