Gavin Hannah

Well thats another run with some decent looking winter weather (Temperature wise). A slight variation on the 12Z upto around t.126-ish. So, I would have to say, atm, unless something drastic happens, Xmas looks like being cold for most at least. Snow fall on the other hand, well that depends on how the pattern evolves over the next few days as we edge towards the weekend. Woah....

Lol....

Lol, if this is true, this site will go into melt down!

Yup, even with the GFS, a few more runs are needed. Though that could be why the METO updated the outlook to mild today. Time to strap in for the pub run tonight and see what we get. From the banter thread...

Got to love the Pub run, if todays other runs have been "modest" in their output, given what we've seen today, then I so hope to see some R - rated goodness from the pub run tonight.

Thanks. So this is from the 17th of that December. Notice the hieghts around Greenland are nice and strong with it extending east and south. If we get anything like this for Xmas this year... Santa can keep all my gifts lol.

I was literally just thinking of the 09/10 winter and how it got started just before christmas. Now i think about it, if i remember correctly, it was a greeny high that got us started that year? Could be wrong, but hey, it was 5 winters ago now lol.

Oh yea, how many times have we all seen that happen the last couple of years. Once we are in the reliable timeframe, and this pattern is still there and / or looking even more prolonged, I will be happy. This could all come crashing down around us by the weekend and a few of us could be feeling a mighty bit miffed lol,

Because if I took the Meto at their word all the time, I wouldn't be in here... And like SS mentioned above, will be interesting to see which way they go with their updates. Some really strong signals for blocking as we approach christmas and new year at the momemt, but as always, it could change in a few days to mild mush again (hope not).

Unless we get the Greenland high goodness later next week, then your best bet will be North. I would imaging the Welsh hills and Dales or District will get some snow as the usually do. Guaranteed snow really only on the Scottish mountains atm.

I don't think anyone can be really be that confident that far out. It's still a case of wait and see atm with regards to post christmas and new year. Come this weekend we wil have a good idea and a probable scenario pinned down. Considering the trending pattern shift around christmas being progged, I'm surprised to hear the METO have gone the other way.

I don't like to rub salt into wounds BUT, I will be back in Scotland for 2 weeks over christmas and new year, so I will be sure to post photos of snow on christmas day in here

Was very frosty this morning at 7:20 when I went to my car, but temps were on the rise. Was 0 when I left, and 2 degrees 30 minutes later at work. It is nice to see the mild being refered to as a 'blip' though. How many winters have we suffered when the mild was not a blip lol.

It's amazing how much improve the mood can be in here after a single run lol.. Everyone, put the prozac down until at least the next run To be fair, the run did produce some very decent looking charts. But I think the trend is definetly there going what I've seen over the last few runs. By the time we get to Xmas, I am not going to have any finger nails left lol.

HP getting deeper still over Greenland, so while, yes it's out in FI, (flip flop), I think this could be the pattern change we need to keep an eye on for future runs.

Now we're talking lol!! It could be a very white New year and in to January.! Also, is that a Polar Tri-Vortex????

This mornings 00Z run obvously hasn't had it's coffee this morning because it went from this in the pub run last night... to this... So it's the usual flip flopping untill the weekend by which point we should know which way the cookie is going to crumble.

Tis the season for snow on Xmas Day!

Very true NBLSB, however, at this range, I'm gona hold on these potential silver linings for Christmas. It may not be a snowmaggedon this Christmas but the flippity flop nature of the charts at this range suggest to me it's all to play for still. Plus, I going to be back in Scotland (Mwahaha!) for Xmas and New Year, so bring on the snow!

Just looking at the GFS 12Z as it comes in, already, T.144 looking much better and at t.159, a very interesting HP cell located over western Canada, drifts east and looks to block off the Atlantic providing a very nice looking cold stream.

Having had a thought about it, I reckong the Azores high finally moving may be in our favour this year. I can't see it setting up shop of the south of France and ruining our prospects of cold and snow either before xmas or into the new year. A few have mentioned that the jackpot pattern change will be hard to pin down by the models and this is usually the case. My gut feeling (bro-science) tells me that once the azores HP moves, we could lucky. If it moves far enough NE, the Jet could tank southwards and who knows what will happen!

Well, it looks like it could very interesting right around Xmas Eve/Day. I am more than happy to endure a few milder days with the azores high if it means that there is a high chance of the white stuff on Xmas day. Also, just looking at that time frame on the 850 charts, alot of purple pooling just to our north, which, can never be a bad thing I suspect. (Now where did I put my ramp.....)