Gavin Hannah

Just taking a look at the latest ensembles, very few members are going for a raging swerly jet and mild temps. Even out in FI. The majority of members are showing PM and LP to the north-ish. Think I even spotted the odd scandi HP appearing in one or two of them. In a nutshell, I think it looks like the majority of the country is going to keep on getting normal winter weather with temps around average or slightly below. And with PM lows in the main feature/pattern, plenty of chances for snow the further north you go.

What a mess lol....but teasing the scandi link up.. Oh, FI you tease.

Oooh, some more of the 09 this year please. Looks amazing though and very informative and kind of allows you to get a better look at the data rather than trying to read it off of a chart.

I think a bit of perspective is required here. ATM, (the GFS anyway) is showing some HP moving into europe in 2 weeks, just in time for Xmas. Until then, we are getting some very seasonable PM weather. And at 2 weeks timeframe, I wouldn't get to disheartened just yet. I know we all want a white Xmas, but lets not get to carried away with what the models are showing for that period just now. Even if the 'trend' remains constant over the next week or so, it looks to me that it could still remain quite mobile. It appears to me that the HP may struggle to get locked in leaving the possiblities open for it go north for the winter

Lol, A Dec 2010 or 09, would be like xmas come early! I do think these papers get worse every year. Pretty soon it will be "Warnings as Drizzle and temperatures of 3 Degrees look set to paralyse the entire UK!"

For anyone worried about Xmas day snow, all I can say is 'Patience grasshopper' One GFS run earlier had a significant Polar low and snow everywhere for Xmas then the next run flipped to southerly winds and dry weather. As it stands, the PM airmass is giving us a taste of winter this week with most areas seeing frosts and cold temps, with snow in the north. I would say that this winter is alreay much better that last years no show (if winter = cold and snow for you) and some of us in the south (I am now a southerner lol) could get a dusting or two this week. I wouldn't be surprised to see the northern PM lows dominate going into next week also. It does appear that the HP to the south west is having a hard time making inroads and as long as we don't get blasted by a south to north Jet, I have high hopes that we could strike gold come Jan.

You may want to relocate to the a Scottish peak.... Glencoe Mt forecasted for whiteouts this week.

It may not be blocked high goodness anytime soon but the LP to the north is going to give the UK a good wintry blast this week into the weekend. After that, its pointless trying to nail down the pattern but just looking at the GFS ops last night and this morning, I would say it's an upgraded in terms of cold. The HP to the south east not as dominant. Hopefully as time progresses, we would perhaps even see this HP migrate NW.

Well December 09 and 10 both provided the UK with a shock start to winter. In 09 if i remeber right, it was around the 23rd and in 10 it was around the 18th? Waiting to see what the evolution is like over the coming week and keeping my fingers crossed!

Resorts are going to be opening up a bit later this year than they have for the last 4/5 years. Probably due to the fact that the UK as a whole has had a very warm and dry spring summer and autumn. Glencoe 5 day forecast. Sunday 7th December FL: 1000ft. Heavy Snow 914m: -4°c West 45-65mph Monday 8th December FL: 4000ft. Snow Showers 914m: -3°c NW 30 gust 50mph Tuesday 9th December FL: 3500ft. Blizzard 914m: 1°c SW 70 gust 100mph Wednesday 10th December FL: 1500ft. WhiteOut 914m: -3°c West 60-100mph Thursday 11th December FL: 500ft. WhiteOut 914m: -5°c WNW 50 gust 80mph

Nice. This week coming looks set to bring some good snow to the highlands (dusts off snowboard...) with most of the country seeing some wintry temps. After that it will be interesting to see what happens. Hoping for something very wintry for xmas when I head back to Scotland.

Well, we may have burned that ticket with the September we have just had. Driest on record and I don't see two months out of three of autumn being drier than average.. but you never know.

Looks like autum could start getting under way this weekend with some cooler air mass coming in. Perhaps a switch to a more mobile pattern?

Well it looks like colder air by the weekend so could be the starting point for "autum actual". A more chop n change pattern developing perhaps? Even the beeb weather guys are commenting on just how dry september has been. Some very nice snow gains in Siberia. Even scandi has some of the white stuff. It's going to be a long couple of months......

Indeed. I fear the winters of 09 and 10 are going to start turning into one of those " I remember way back when...." winters. And I'm not counting the cold snap springs of recent years beacuase as fun as they are (unless your a farmer) they don't last as long.

Well, my post wasn't meant to start a climate debate, it was merely drawing a "loose" connection between the weather this autumn and the jet stream patterns. I have to say, 24 degrees down here at the end of September is in my opinion something of a rare oddity. Even back home it's 17-18 degrees forecast today. I remember of the last few years, the Atlantic is usually starting to wind up about now. Two years ago, on the 5th Oct I believe, there was some decent snowfall on high ground in Scotland (And I think the Express bought Maddens snowmageddon forecast hook line and sinker). My point being, if the Jet remains on it's long windy path through Autumn and into Winter, then we will get stuck under one type of weather pattern for a prolonged period. Simiar to last winters unrelenting Atlantic storms.

An article which kind of details what many aleady know/suspect. http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn26278-crazy-weather-traced-to-arctics-impact-on-jet-stream.html And this summer / autumn is evidence of the jet stream slowing/meandering more often, allowing for longer settled weather or if your unlucky, prolonged wilder weather. It looks like we are heading for a very settled first half of autum away from the very north-western areas.

It would be fair to say that the blocked pattern has been very prominent over the start of the Autumn. At this rate, I'd expect any significant pattern change, at the earliest, at the end of september / start of October.

We are still in the 'In between period' where snow gains are very susceptable to snow loss the next day. But it does look good seeing some of that white stuff in Scandi.

Looks like I missed the start of the countdown to winter lol.... This year I shall definetely not be getting my hopes up for mega snow and cold. I've moved to just north of London so unless we get a dec 09 or Jan 10.... I will be keeping my expectations low. On the flip side, it does make it cheaper to get to the alps from here.... muwahaha!

My assessment of the model output WRT to cold and snow prospects. Onions. The UK looks like being under the influence of SWerlie winds and a raging Jet stream. See you all in the new year!

Lets not forget peeps, the Euro HP can still bring plenty of surface cold. The longer it sits there, the more cold air will filter into Europe and eventually the UK. This will cool the air coming from the south. And with LP off to our west, it will bring colder polar maritime air. After a few days, the air should become quite cool with a mix of polar maritime and cold continental air. Surface temperatures could get quite low, especially at night. So, I would put my money on some frosts building up, especially in the East. LP could make some inroads to the west from time to time keeping things a touch milder. In a nutshell, at least it doesn't look like the full blown hairdryer treatment is on the cards for Xmas.

Hate to admit it, but Height rises to our east, doesn't shift anytime soon. See you guys in two weeks. Bah, only joking lol, but as BFTP said, its all SWerlie from next week. Could be that 's the case right up to xmas. Obviously, not going to right xmas off at this range but for the next week to two, the writing looks to be on the wall. On the bright side, the UK should be relatively dry for the next week or two.

I thought Bullseye got cancelled? Thats a dart board and a half lol

A quick GEM comparisson of yesterdays 12z (left) and this mornings 00z. (right) http://meteocentre.com/home_e.html