kate1

Learning all the time - thank you everyone, especially when my questions are stupid - and it's looking pretty promising!

Sorry, could you explain why the UKMO would back down?

I'm a newbie trying to interpret the situation and I would thoroughly recommend popping over to the calmer atmosphere of the technical thread and reading what John has to say (don't worry, it isn't technical - even I understood it!). Much more thoughtful and balanced a viewpoint than some of the rather hysterical and hand-wringing one-liners that crop up here on occasion.

I can't believe these people who still have no heating on... mine has been on since late September! Maybe you're all in your twenties and naturally generate your own heat... me, I need a hot water bottle!

I've just put the additional layer of the all-seasons duvet on the bed! And I have worn a scarf but only inside - our house is old, with no double glazing or insulation, and cold. I don't care though, I'm still looking forward to more wintry weather - bring it on!

This is the 00z.

To be fair Matt does then go on to say that after this more average zonal period it could potentially be turning colder again later into December... which is what happens even in the coldest of winters. We are unlikely to be in the freezer right through from the end of November to the end of February... See also Terminal Moraine's very interesting response to Matt's comments on the Strat thread.

Go to your profile - where your name is, right at the top - and various options are given. Not really a model-related post, so please forgive me, but it's quite exciting when respected posters start using words like 'excellent'... I have to say, the model thread has been fantastic so far this autumn/winter - I have learnt so much - massive thanks to all of you.

Oh, surely if I did shoot him they'd let me off on the grounds of extreme mitigating circumstances? It is strange though, he just doesn't understand what appeals about snow - to him it's just an obstacle in the way of his early-morning run and getting to work... Fortunately I have this forum to keep me sane through the winter months!

Great post, TWS! Really captures the amazing drama of snowfall... which I suppose is what all we coldies are after... It's the change in light, the colour of the sky and the total transformation of the mundane world around us. And signs are looking fairly positive that possibly we may be experiencing these this side of Christmas... I do agree that it's fair enough to clear roads/public pathways - but my husband insists on clearing our garden! This February he did it before I was even up and out of bed to see it in all its untouched glory... he wasn't popular.

From what I read over in the Model thread, it is starting to look like it might actually be game on.... perhaps not for November or even early December, but the promise is there... So what's your favourite 'snow moment'? When it starts tentatively falling from the sky? Lamppost watching? Or waking up in the morning to that weird unearthly light only heavy snowfall brings? Personally I like snow best while it's actually falling and when it's first on the ground all pristine and unspoilt. It really hacks me off when people who don't 'get' the romance of snow (like my darling husband), get out there with the grit and snow shovel the second it's stopped falling and insist on clearing it all away... My ideal snowfall would be heavy for 24 hours or more, on the ground for 24/48 hours (so we can all get some sledging in), and then a rapid melt... Two or three clear days so we can resume normal lives... and then the same thing happening all over again. Right through the whole three months of winter! Oh well, I can dream...

Chiono is mentioning signs of a possible warming over on the Strat thread... slowly (very slowly!) but surely, I think we are getting there...

Bit off topic I know, but can anyone clarify for me what the difference is between this thread and the Upcoming Winter Chat thread - is it just that here we're allowed to ramp and there we aren't? Am a bit confused about where to post my snow-obsessed ramblings!

Many thanks, Glacier Point, for an excellent and extremely informative post - I can't pretend to understand all of it, though I'm trying my best, but I'm sure you have calmed a few frazzled nerves (mine included!). I particularly like the sound of that 'ticking time bomb'!

Sorry, meant to say no hail, or prolonged heavy rain - just a couple of showers which didn't amount to much. Late afternoon has turned out sunny with a mostly blue sky - lovely autumn weather.

Massive grey clouds rolling over Tunbridge Wells now... but apart from a heavy shower a couple of hours ago, no rain yet. Think it's in the post though!

Very interesting analysis - so he seems to be suggesting close parallels between this winter and winter 2009/10... Thanks for that, Sebastiaan.

As a beginner to all of this, would love some explanation as to why you think this, as everything as I have seen and read so far seems to suggest something that may be very different.

My impression of Brian Gaze is that he is (quite rightly) super-cautious when it comes to making a LRF. Coming from him, this is virtually a cold ramp!

I only joined this forum last year, and am still on a MASSIVE learning curve -I know it's hard to accurately predict anything from more than 72 hours away - but at what point do you think we might allow ourselves to get just a little bit, properly, excited? Mid-October when the whole SSW thing kicks in (assuming everything else is still falling into place by then?) I suppose what I'd like to know is, if all the factors continue to look promising for a cold winter as October progresses, is it possible that other factors could unexpectedly come into play bringing it all crashing down around our ears? You can tell the events of winter 2011/2012 have had a long-term effect on my psyche...

Think you're right, Steveinsussex - after only a few minutes it has now turned to rain...

Well, here in Tunbridge Wells it is indeed snowing sporadically - not enough yet to settle though, but the updated MetO forecast is suggesting heavy snow for us from 9am through to midday so here's hoping! If we do get a reasonable amount it will be nice, for the first time this winter, to be able to see it properly rather than having to rush outside to a lamppost every five minutes...

Light snow here in Tunbridge Wells now - seems quicker to get going than the snow at the weekend. Whatever it amounts to it's a bonus!

Snowing here in Tunbridge Wells too... Nothing to ramp about, probably a 2 on the Murr scale but... It's snow! And if the models tonight are right, there could well be more to come.

Have to keep reminding myself that if, only twenty seconds ago, snow was only falling at level 1/2, it is unlikely now to be falling at level 10... after all, the forecasts did say we wouldn't see snow at all until about 9pm, with the heavy stuff not setting in until midnight...It's going to be a long night!