Gael_Force
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Posts posted by Gael_Force
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22 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:
The UK is acting testing more than most countries so there will always be hidden cases (mild) but less than other states.
As alluded to in the comparison data earlier our key test is Thursday. We will hit 400 tomorrow and Italy, Spain, Germany and France all started jumping by 100+ at that point.
By testing more, there will be a bigger lag time to results .... currently 4-5 days according to article in the Guardian. I see foreign sites saying test results later same day of test so who knows really.
QuoteOne A&E consultant said: “A delay of four days is not necessarily a risk to patients, who are advised to contact NHS111 if they get any worse in the interim. However, the delay can lead to anxiety and people breaking self-isolation.”
One A&E nurse said the average turnaround for tests they were taking had stretched to four or five days. “Tests are taking longer than anticipated to be processed by the labs, I assume because of the sheer volume of samples they’re receiving. We’re being instructed to tell patients that they will often hear from PHE within 48-72 hours of the swabs if they are clear. During this time they should self-isolate,” the nurse said.
NHS to start testing people for coronavirus to ease strain on PHE | World news | The Guardian
WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COMMove will double the number of tests that can be done every day in UK from 2,000 to 4,000-
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1 minute ago, philglossop said:
Just had 2 massive rows with my parents.
Dad has hospital appointment on Friday. It's none vital. Personally I dont think its sensible for him to go as hes 76, and my Mum has a diabetes, has breathing issues and had 2 heart attacks.
In my Mums words " it's perfectly safe" I've some hand gel. it's only a cold. When I pointed out the dangers, "oh it's all hype and it's not here".
Never have I lost my temper so much. Theres stubborn and then theres stupid and selfish, as god forbid anything happens as the only child who picks up the pieces.....
It's very difficult, us old blighters are a stubborn bunch but sometimes reading something can really take the wind out of your sails.
Let them read this in its entirety .. had a profound effect on me.
Thread by @jasonvanschoor: From a well respected friend and intensivist/A&E consultant who is currently in northern Italy: 1/ ‘I feel the pressure to give you a qu…
THREADREADERAPP.COMThread by @jasonvanschoor: From a well respected friend and intensivist/A&E consultant who is currently in northern Italy: 1/ ‘I feel thegive you a quick...-
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43 minutes ago, Azazel said:
So my two friends are home from Italy now and they are aware of the "advice" to self isolate. I've made them at least promise to call their places of work to see what their employer's stance on the matter is. They both actually have sensitive jobs so I would be stunned if they're advised to come in.
Ask them to read this and then ask if they want to go there....
Thread by @jasonvanschoor: From a well respected friend and intensivist/A&E consultant who is currently in northern Italy: 1/ ‘I feel the pressure to give you a qu…
THREADREADERAPP.COMThread by @jasonvanschoor: From a well respected friend and intensivist/A&E consultant who is currently in northern Italy: 1/ ‘I feel thegive you a quick...-
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13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
Some concerning news coming out of Italy on Twitter.
To paraphrase what I've read- the average age for ICU admission is getting lower as the elderly were picked off first and succumbed fast, younger patients succumbing later and facing a health system that is exhausted. In the particular sample of admissions, only 2/10 had relevant co-morbidities. This is from someone working at Lecco hospital apparently.
The marathon runner (38) first case, is still in intensive care. Apparently the Omaha, Nebraska case is also a young fit person into sport. The chances for recovery in the young are higher but it could be a long stay in hospital.
Here's how a Nebraska coronavirus patient was transported
NYPOST.COMA chilling photograph shows the extreme measures taken to safely transport Nebraska’s first coronavirus case — an Omaha woman who may have... -
8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
Underlying conditions alone wouldn’t account for the fatality rate . This is I think down to the over whelmed health service . People that might have survived if the system wasn’t under so much strain are now dying .
Very sobering article in Corriere. They expect to have 3000 ICU patients by late March .. maybe there sooner. They might find beds and retired volunteers but I wonder if they have anywhere near enough ventilators for all those people.
QuoteThe picture is of such gravity as to require an increase in resuscitation places up to ten times the current availability. The number of hospitalized persons expected on March 26 is 18 thousand Lombard patients, of which between 2,700 and 3,200 will require hospitalization in intensive care. Today there are already over a thousand patients between those in resuscitation and those who risk getting worse from one minute to the next. We monitor the situation 24 hours a day
Terapie intensive per coronavirus: allestite anche nei corridoi - Corriere.it
WWW.CORRIERE.ITL’allarme del coordinatore dell’Unità di crisi della Regione Lombardia Antonio Pesenti: «Il 26 marzo in lombardia avremo 18 mila malati, 3 mila avranno bisogno di... -
1 hour ago, Azazel said:
They absolutely won’t be and I can bet neither of them will self isolate either.
They are not being asked to, according to the government advice....
Quote
Stay indoors and avoid contact with other people if you’ve travelled to the UK from the following places in the last 14 days and have a cough, high temperature or shortness of breath, even if your symptoms are mild:mainland China outside of Hubei province
Italy outside of the lockdown areas
South Korea outside of the special care zones
Cambodia
Hong Kong
Japan
Laos
Macau
Malaysia
Myanmar
Singapore
Taiwan
Thailand
Vietnam
PS.. why no mention of all the other areas now seeing big jumps in case numbers?
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30 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
I don’t need to be an expert to know that. The economy is more important than peoples lives evidently.
Big problem here ... if the economy tanks ... a bad outcome for the livelihood of all the people. It's a very fine line to tread and I don't envy those who have to make decisions.
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4 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:
Where are you exactly?
Talking about the UK in general, not a specific location.
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35 minutes ago, Ryukai said:
This is the twitter for the reporter covering it.
Scary quote from his twitter feed...
Quote“We’ve learned that the virus is volatile, unpredictable.” Patients have gone from showing no symptoms to being rushed to the hospital in an hour #KOMONews
There's a lot of elderly people living on their own here: if it strikes that fast maybe not enough time to summon help with likely overstretched ambulance service. Really doesn't bear thinking about....
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Since we neither got snow nor sunshine this winter, add some cod liver oil capsules to your shopping lists.
QuoteVitamin D and Protective Immunity
Vitamin D has been used (unknowingly) to treat infections such as tuberculosis before the advent of effective antibiotics. Tuberculosis patients were sent to sanatoriums where treatment included exposure to sunlight which was thought to directly kill the tuberculosis. Cod liver oil, a rich source of vitamin D has also been employed as a treatment for tuberculosis as well as for general increased protection from infections[7].
There have been multiple cross-sectional studies associating lower levels of vitamin D with increased infection. One report studied almost 19,000 subjects between 1988 and 1994. Individuals with lower vitamin D levels (<30 ng/ml) were more likely to self-report a recent upper respiratory tract infection than those with sufficient levels, even after adjusting for variables including season, age, gender, body mass and race[8]. Vitamin D levels fluctuate over the year. Although rates of seasonal infections varied, and were lowest in the summer and highest in the winter, the association of lower serum vitamin D levels and infection held during each season. Another cross-sectional study of 800 military recruits in Finland stratified men by serum vitamin D levels[9]. Those recruits with lower vitamin D levels lost significantly more days from active duty secondary to upper respiratory infections than recruits with higher vitamin D levels (above 40nmol). There have been a number of other cross-sectional studies looking at vitamin D levels and rates of influenza [10] as well as other infections including bacterial vaginosis[11] and HIV[12-13]. All have reported an association of lower vitamin D levels and increased rates of infection.
Vitamin D and the Immune System
WWW.NCBI.NLM.NIH.GOVIt is now clear that vitamin D has important roles in addition to its classic effects on calcium and bone homeostasis. As the vitamin D receptor is expressed on...-
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1 minute ago, Spikecollie said:
5 new cases in my region of Nouvelle Aquitaine, all linked to people who came back from the religious gathering in Mulhouse. None in my départment yet, thankfully.
Have you found out why so many from the gathering?
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50 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Only problem is its the sun!
https://emcrit.org/pulmcrit/lopinavir/
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1 hour ago, Dami said:
The fact that it is spreading, surely means people are still not following basic hygiene or advice?
Think about going food shopping... thousands of products .... any one of which could be contaminated by someone just before you sneezing over the shelf/display rack. You pick up something and touch your face without thinking.... hand washing and sanitising are great but cannot protect you entirely.
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47 minutes ago, Snowy L said:
Something really doesn't make sense with the Italy numbers. It takes a week or 2 to kill you so when the death numbers are compared to the cases reported last week, which was about 200 per day then that is really high. They must be missing thousands of cases.
If you read the letter from clinicians, someone posted yesterday, you'll see cases are arriving at hospital with a very poor survival outcome. There doesn't seem to be the long stays in ICU before death announced.
Just to add... the very first case (38 year old marathon runner) is still in intensive care along with approx 400 others. Situation is apparently desperate in locked down communities.
QuoteNowhere is the situation more acute than in the areas under quarantine. In Castiglione d’Adda, a town of 4,600 in Lombardy, 18 people have died within the past two weeks and, as of Thursday, 121 inhabitants were infected. The youngest victim was a 55-year-old man; it is unclear whether he had an underlying illness. With three of the town’s five doctors in quarantine and two hospitalised with the virus, there is nobody to tend to the sick at home.
“We have many people with a fever who are at home and who are unable to be visited by a doctor,” Costantino Pesatori, the mayor of Castiglione d’Adda, told the Guardian. “A substitute doctor came but he wasn’t provided with protective clothing and so, justifiably, refused to see people at home.”-
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A very succinct account of how it can all go wrong very quickly ...
QuoteAn elderly couple hospitalized in medicine in Molinette, in the ward of primary Luca Scaglione, tested positive for coronavirus after an ordinary hospitalization for what was thought to be a trivial flu. Husband and wife, around 70 years old, did not communicate that their son worked in Lodi, the outbreak in Italy of the epidemic and that he had come to Turin to find them. Today both of them have gotten worse and hospitalization in the intensive care unit has become necessary for her husband: her condition is considered rather serious.
The confirmation of positivity came in the evening and now the hospital management - the third largest in Italy - is organizing the closure of the ward. The two patients had arrived at Molinette on Sunday by going to the emergency room and now there is the big problem of figuring out whether to decide to trace the route starting from the emergency department. A serious problem for the whole region, given the role of Molinette in the Piedmontese health system. The first effect is the quarantine for medical staff working in the ward: 25 nurses and at least six doctors are involved. In addition to family members. And then there are the other patients in the ward: about thirty according to the first rumors.
https://torino.repubblica.it/cronaca...C12-P3-S1.8-T1
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5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
I get your points. But even allowing for some of those factors the NHS wouldn’t be keeping people in if it could be avoided .
And even if they had underlying conditions how is it that the current total seems to include a lot of people who need hospital treatment .
As for quarantine , anyone in contact would be asked to self isolate . I doubt the NHS would be keeping people in who have mild or no symptoms .
How many of the cases have been detected in patients already hospitalised for something else?
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19 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
Some word not confirmed they have Wuhan strand of virus more deadly Iran too being severely affected, and it is seemingly being imported all over Europe..
Yes, interesting study posted last night. The Italian outbreak traces back to the first case in Germany where executives were infected by an asymptomatic (symptoms and testing after return to China) Chinese woman attending a two day workshop. That will be similar to Washington where genetic sequence goes back to patient #1 in mid January. They do a great job in contact tracing but cannot catch all the people who may have been contaminated by touching something where virus has lingered.
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Not good ... in a Madrid nursing home. Hope for a better outcome than the one in Washington state.
QuoteTen residents and a nurse's aide at the La Paz Nursing Home in Madrid have tested positive for the coronavirus, as confirmed by the management of the Madrid Social Assistance Agency (AMAS), which has 37 centers like this.
The ten affected inmates belong to “a particularly vulnerable group,” according to AMAS.
This contagion has been known hours after the Ministry of Health reported that the official number of cases of this disease in Spain is 237.Últimas noticias del coronavirus, en directo | Madrid informa de 11 contagios en una residencia de ancianos | Sociedad | EL PAÍS
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17 minutes ago, Donegal said:
Population of UK 2018 66.4m
Icu/critical care beds UK (2017) 5,912 - often running at 80% capacity, often not enough nurses to run at full capacity.
If a mere 2% of uk population 1,328000 contracted COVID-19 at same time
And if 1% 13,280 of those required Icu treatment it's over double the capacity.
Speculative I know but Sobering.
Yes, and when you factor in the need for Covid-19 cases to be isolated, it further decreases the availability. To maximise capacity, I would think they need to start clearing some hospitals for use as designated infection only units.
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I think we need to accept, throughout history, mother nature's laboratory has been very effective in population control ... the only help from humans was to play host... modern medicine has changed the balance but nature is always inventive too.
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4 minutes ago, swebby said:
Yes, I think that is correct, I hope that is correct.
What i was saying is that in the next few weeks the raw data may look much worse than the reality, if the US have a large number of unrecorded mild cases.
I'm wondering what impact obesity will have on the CFR. Not seen any mention yet .. does China even have an obesity problem ?
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@Kirkcaldy Weather Thank you for keeping us informed on this tragic event. Fascinating from a weather enthusiasts point of view but gut wrenching with regard to loss of life and destruction of a community.
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8 minutes ago, Donegal said:
Terrible timing with the February break. Lots going to Italy during it unaware it was rampant there. Perfect storm.
Same in China, escalating to coincide with the mass travel for Lunar New Year.
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43 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
20% chance of becoming seriously ill.
Thats really high.
Yes, I'm delighted to know that 80% will only have mild symptoms (that's my children/grandchildren, hopefully) but mild or not they are still potential infection carriers to the more vulnerable age groups (me and the wife).
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Novel Coronavirus – China
in Space, Science & nature
Posted
Wuhan built new hospitals in days and were able to free-up specialist hospitals to concentrate on the critically ill, Italy does not have that luxury. Some very distressing decisions are having to be made regarding who gets treatment and who is unlikely to survive dangerous invasive therapies.
Couple of stats from Wuhan.