Gael_Force
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Posts posted by Gael_Force
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All 3 trimesters have slp as very strong in the Atlantic. Most separation of the cell for D/J/F so it has possibilities.
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That's a nasty angle of attack for New Orleans the HWRF is showing.
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She's working hard on building the CDO. I saw some models forecast a hurricane with a big eye ... this may be so?
Earlier flyover with the hurricane hunters.
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22 hours ago, chionomaniac said:
December 2010 was unique in the fact that tropospheric wave 2 breaks into the strat occurred in the perfect position to reinforce a Greenland high. The split of the vortex was high into the stratosphere. At the time I called this an ‘internal wave break’, ie very much tropospheric led and not one that leads to a traditional SSW. These are far more beneficial to the UK than the more easily recognised over the top type wave 2 break from negative EAMT scenarios that force pressure up and from the surf zone of the strat vortex before leading to a collapse of the SPV from top to bottom.
As you say ... perfect alignment ....and up she goes!
500mb
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Not the sort of picture expected in high summer.
Looks impressive on half disk view.
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4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
Aperge surface air temperatures for 8am Friday. I’m guessing the chart for the afternoon may be a touch on the warm side.
That's not the 8am temps; it's the maximum during the last 12 hours which would run 7pm to 7am in the UK.
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1 hour ago, MATT
said:
I view the GFS 12z and I think roll on Winter and perhaps some decent cold and snow action... Looking at runs like this are making me think roll on next Summer for hopefully a much more interesting pattern. Truelly shocking is this run, but it is what it is.
Edit.. GEM is not much better at 180hrs.
I've just noticed by reading back my post, I'm saying roll on Winter and next Summer all in one sentence.. That's model fatigue for ya..
There's an element who have been looking forward to solar minimum for winter influence ... it has f......d summer, can it save winter?
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7 hours ago, General Cluster said:
Sounds like hocus-pocus to me, Mr D... Didn't Gavin say that the 'prediction' only transpires on one-out-of-three occasions? If that's so, then, given there're only three options (+ive, -ive, neutral) one might as well just guess...?
And, really: how can anyone forecast an SSW a full five months ahead of time!
PS: And, why did the UK Met stop using this particular tool?
I haven't looked at video because internet playing up but I assume you are referring to the May SST anomaly. They are still using this as far as I know and it was part of the suite of forecasting tools they used for summer '18.
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3 hours ago, summer blizzard said:
While it may well rise regardless its worth saying that the CFS appears to not even be starting at the right point correctly for whatever region, hence why it is in conflict with the Euro.
I shall try to remember to check back on July 5th as to whether we are near -1 or above 0 but June so far would suggest that the Euro is odds on.
On here, I discovered that AO/NAO were not drivers of the weather: just a tool to show past synoptics and an anticipated set up from model output. Is the same not true for AAM in that it is something derived from the weather patterns modelled medium to longer term?
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Surely very unusual to see Pwat charts showing the rain potential coming in from the continent.
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30 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:
ECMWF were reporting back in March that the loss of aircraft data arising from the CV19 pandemic would have an adverse impact on starting data for their model initialisation:
Drop in aircraft observations could have impact on weather forecasts
One aspect of the COVID-19 pandemic has been a reduction in aircraft flights and thus of the aircraft-based observations available to weather prediction centres. The observations are used together with many others to help estimate the state of the Earth system at the start of forecasts. At ECMWF, aircraft reports are second only to satellite data in their impact on forecasts. However, recently added satellite wind observations will help to mitigate the drop in the number of aircraft-based observations.
Full article: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2020/drop-aircraft-observations-could-have-impact-weather-forecasts
Edit: Also an interesting article written on this topic by the Washington Post: The coronavirus pandemic and loss of aircraft data takes toll on weather forecasting. https://www.boston.com/news/coronavirus/2020/05/13/aircraft-data-weather-forecasting-coronavirus
Missing data or not .... GFS and ECM seeing remarkably similar, unpalatable solutions, for longer term.
EC 240
GFS 300 -
Fire in the sky...
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19 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:
Thank you so much!
That was our first thought but it was more than 10 times bigger than the usual ones! If it was then perhaps I should have kept it!
There was nothing to scale against but try this for comparison.
Take on Nature: Red velvet mites and layers of living
WWW.IRISHNEWS.COMA SOARING buzzard high in the sky last week prompted thoughts of the great biodiversity and layers of life which exist between the ground under our feet and...-
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First image looks like a red spider mite.
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Quote
The ability of SARS-CoV-2 to effectively spread globally, including in warm and humid climates, suggests that seasonality cannot be considered a key modulating factor of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility. While warmer weather may slightly reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2, there is no evidence to suggest that warmer conditions in northern hemisphere summer months will reduce the effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to an extent that few additional interventions are needed to curb its spread. Further studies on the impact of climate variability, air pollution and other extrinsic factors on COVID-19 transmission will need to consider connectivity from locations with a high incidence, population susceptibility and surveillance for respiratory infections. For the time being, policy makers must focus on contact reducing interventions and any COVID-19 risk predictions based on climate information alone should be interpreted with caution.
Effective transmission across the globe: the role of climate in COVID-19 mitigation strategies | CMMID Repository
CMMID.GITHUB.IOWe discussed the current evidence on the role of climate on COVID-19 transmission.-
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26 minutes ago, Donegal said:
Situation in Mulhouse, France is bleak. Hospital overrun, patients being transferred to other areas of France.
A very sophisticated set up with an airborne ICU. The Italians were saying that their patients were too ill to be move to other less impacted areas this will give some of the French patients a better chance of survival.
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Maybe the toilet rolls will be needed after all.
QuoteWe tried to answer very simple questions. I am probably the virologist who saw the most patients here in Germany. We went from house to house and to every infected person in the district of Heinsberg, particularly affected by Covid-19, and asked the people. We recorded the symptoms and thereby discovered new ones, took air samples, smears from doorknobs, cell phones and remote controls, we even collected toilet water samples
.Almost all infected people we interviewed, and this applies to a good two thirds, described a loss of smell and taste lasting several days. It goes so far that a mother could not smell the full diaper of her child. Others could no longer smell their shampoo, and food began to taste bland. We cannot yet tell exactly when these symptoms will appear, but we believe a little later in the infection.
The typical Covid 19 patient shows only mild symptoms. A Chinese study from the metropolis of Shenzhen also comes to the result, which has found that 91 percent of those infected show only mild to moderate symptoms, with a dry, irritable cough, and possibly a fever. With us there was also a loss of smell and taste. Diarrhea also occurred in our infected people in 30 percent of the cases, which is more common than previously thought.
Virologe Hendrik Streeck über Corona: Neue Symptome entdeckt
WWW.FAZ.NETHendrik Streeck ist wahrscheinlich der Virologe, der die meisten Patienten in Deutschland gesehen hat. Ein Interview über neue Covid-19-Symptome...-
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I am aghast ....
QuoteParamedics attending people who could be infected with the coronavirus were told only one person in each team of two could wear a face mask, with the other instructed to stand two metres away from the patient if “clinically appropriate”.
The message was sent from controllers to London Ambulance Service (LAS) crews at 3am on Tuesday, prompting paramedics to question why they were ordered to ration face masks.
London paramedics rationed to one face mask between two | World news | The Guardian
WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COMNHS says there are enough masks but distribution issues have led to shortage-
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4 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:
Sky news now reporting live from central London showing scenes of a mortuary being expanded..
Is this really necessary? I think this type of reporting really cross the line and will no doubt induce stress and panic. Really disgusting IMO.
You know what ... a healthy dose of panic might be just what is needed to get some people to take this seriously. Far too many blithely going about their business/social lives, oblivious to the dangers.
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18 minutes ago, Tilly said:
Afternoon all,
Question about Covid and the immune system, during and after pregnancy. My friend is pregnant and is now staying in for the next 12 weeks. Is this advice to protect the baby? And are pregnant women more likely to catch Covid due to the immune system being suppressed?
what about people who have recently had a baby? I think it takes a few months for the immune system to get back to normal? Are they more at risk of catching Covid too?
You might find this helpful.
Coronavirus infection and pregnancy
WWW.RCOG.ORG.UKInformation about coronavirus for pregnant women and their families-
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100mb 
30 mb 
GFS 300 
Medicanes- Cyclones in the Mediterranean Sea
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted
Looking like the real deal ....
https://i.imgur.com/huF8TNQ.mp4