Gael_Force
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Posts posted by Gael_Force
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2 hours ago, hammerb32 said:
This seems significant to me, would mean that the virus was well established in Europe longer than assumed?
I'm sure I read some of the Italian cases were also post mortem ... another reason for seeming high CFR.
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10 minutes ago, Donegal said:
Comparing Italy and South Korea cases/death rate. The Italians have a lot of cases not accounted for IMO
I see a leading Alzheimer therapist has died in Italy. No long stay in ICU there, maybe patients arriving in critical condition and passing quickly are changing the ratios we have been used to seeing in China.
Quotedies at 61 years old a Parma the estimated doctor Ivo Cilesi. The doctor, positive to coronavirus, had been hospitalized on Friday in Fidenza (Parma), then transported to the Parma hospital where he died on the night between Sunday 1 and Monday 2 March. Ivo Cilesi was born in Genoa, but for about twenty years he lived in Cene, in the province of Bergamo. The doctor was famous for the Doll Therapy, a central technique in his work to combatAlzheimer’s. With the “Doll Therapy” he has given assistance to numerous patients suffering from this pathology. Doll Therapy is used to alleviate the behavioral problems of Alzheimer’s patients.
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Looks to be some quite substantial buildings that are just rubble ... maybe stronger than EF3 on the scale?
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8 minutes ago, emax said:
If it transpired that they did, then the NHS (or that particular department) doesnt deserve tax payers money. Even if Boris insisted that he shook their hands (very unlikely), then whatever the department, as a professional health service, they should of refused. If they allowed him in to shake their hands, then no wonder the NHS is in such a state if professionalism goes out the window that easily!
Just to be clear, I dont think any of this happened at all, but just theorising if it did!
He would have been nowhere near confirmed cases but it is an appalling example of defective leadership.
Whatever the standard of reporting, he may well have inadvertently shaken hands with someone asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic. This could happen to anyone, anywhere ... telling the public not to shake hands is a pointless exercise if the PM is not going to promote and adhere to advice.
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3 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:
One of first people to catch this virus, a Brit expat in Wuhan, said he caught it in November, weeks before the Chinese officially announced the virus to the world.
The Brit also said that cases were covered up for weeks by the Chinese authorities.
So it's been around since, at least, mid-November.
Yes, recent paper dated the genetic sequencing back to mid October and nothing to do with the wet market. How do they work that out, fascinating science and way beyond my comprehension.
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6 minutes ago, Donegal said:
I've decided not to go to France next week. I've since found out my sister is pregnant so can't take the risk potentially spreading it when I return home. I've booked with Ryanair. You can't cancel only change flight date. Is there any travel insurance I could get that could reimburse some of it or is it just a loss no matter what? I've tried searching but don't see anything specific.
You could wait it out and see if Ryanair cancel flight due to seats not sold or other restrictions. A lot can happen in a week with this fast moving situation.
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31 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
That sounds rather ominous . If it’s not passed in the normal way with most transmission by either larger droplets from coughs or sneezes or alternatively surface transmission then that’s a major escalation. If the implication is people can transmit it by simple breathing next to someone then that’s awful .
I think it was telling when they discovered the community infection in California. Patient transferred from hospital with droplet protection in place but immediately transferred to negative pressure facility on diagnosis.
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26 minutes ago, The PIT said:
It's a very small amount and nothing to panic about and you shouldn't be trying to panic people. If one my relatives get it it would be just bad luck. The chances of getting it are very remote. 646000 people die of flu a year are you panicking over that. No.
Well, here's a thing...
In Washington state, where cases have just been discovered in the community, a couple of hospitals are completely closed, medical staff and several teams of firefighters (patient transfer) are quarantined because they have unknowingly handled infected patients with covid-19. Do you not see a wider risk of death in communities where emergency front line personnel and premises have been taken off stream.
A bit more lateral thinking is required !!
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Absolutely brilliant....
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22 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:
Is there any advice for people with long term health conditions like say asthma, who are under 60. Or anything else for that matter, cause they'd be in as much risk as the elderly I would have thought. As one of the big problems seems to be an auto immune over reaction, as read in some of the medical papers post here, anyone who has an auto immune problem surely needs advice too.
It's much easier to give advice to the elderly (mostly retired) to avoid travel/crowds/hospitals etc: they are not the economically active, apart from the money they spend. It's a different kettle of fish where the workforce are concerned ... how many have underlying health issues that don't preclude a few hours work. As it is similar to flu, I would personally opt for the premise that if you fit into the category of being offered free flu vaccine then you might be in a more at risk category.
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This is interesting in terms of can the cured still shed or has community infection gone undetected for weeks.
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1 hour ago, General Cluster said:
But is the susceptibility of the aged due to the rapid, and inescapable, decline in the immune response, rather than with health, in terms of what an annual checkup would reveal?
If it is, one could be as 'fit as a fiddle' and still be 10 times more prone than most others?
Absolutely ... and the decline in ability of cells to repair the damage done. There was a chart showing the differences, over time, in the CT scans for young to old... everybody had patches on the lung (even those with no visible symptoms) ...the time it took to clear, if at all, increased with age.
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13 minutes ago, Dreckly said:
Or a timed device like an automatic air freshener.
.... or maybe, even a bottle of perfume...
No bio-hazard suited persons witnessed in the delivery of that one though many in evidence after the event.
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21 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
The DT headline is ridiculous.
And just adding to the hysteria. The virus is no easier to transmit than the flu and 1 in 10 people don’t end up in hospital with that .
The virus might cause a higher mortality rate than flu and a higher proportion of people might become seriously ill but that still would never lead to anything like that many people in hospital .
I think that first paragraph is badly worded: probably misquoting stats which have that percentage for Covid-19 severe cases. A look at the Italian stats show....
821 cases, break down as follows...
412 asymptomatic or very mild at home
345 in hospital
64 in intensive care
21 deceased. (not counted in the 821 total)
Half of their cases need hospitalisation ... that's a big additional load on a stretched (at best of times) NHS!
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Italians struggling for ICU beds in epicentre of outbreak.
Quote"Unfortunately, another emergency broke out in Lodi last night. In Lodi suddenly yesterday afternoon there was a crowding of hospitalizations: 51 serious hospitalizations of which 17 in intensive care. Lodi does not have a sufficient number of intensive care rooms so they have been transferred to other intensive care units in the region ". This was explained by the president of Lombardy Attilio Fontana all 'Aria who pulls up La7 talking about coronavirus. "If you laughed less at the mask and looked at the problem more carefully I think it would be wise," he added.
How the hell anyone thinks the NHS can cope is beyond me.
Coronavirus: England only has 15 beds for worst respiratory cases | Society | The Guardian
WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COMNHS says system will struggle if more than 28 patients need artificial lung treatment-
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Quote
What I am worried about is that the administration is not helping the situation. They seem utterly unprepared. Trump has said “I think it’s gonna work out fine,” and National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow said that U.S. containment of the virus is “pretty close to airtight.” These statements are uninformed.
Until two days ago, no single official has been put in charge of organizing the government’s response. To make matters worse, in 2018, Trump fired the pandemic response chain of command that the Obama administration set up to address the Ebola outbreak. There is no bureaucracy to coordinate various federal agencies and local responses. This past fall, Trump shut down Predict, a federal program that tracked and researched pandemics.
I would say that the U.S. is less prepared for the SARS-CoV-2019 outbreak than we’ve ever been.
To make matters even worse, Trump has appointed Vice President Mike Pence coronavirus czar. Here is a man who doesn’t believe in science leading the government’s response. Furthermore, while governor of Indiana, Pence fueled the worst HIV outbreak in the state’s history when he ignored the advice of state and federal health officials. He has denied that smoking kills, spread disinformation about condoms, and called global warming a “myth.”
If you don’t think any of this is a problem, listen to the press conference as Trump says ‘there are 15 cases, then there will be zero”. Then in the same press conference, PHS officials talk about ‘pandemic preparedness’. It is simply inappropriate and an embarrassment. I think the inherent danger of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak is not excessive, but it might be in the hands of an inactive administration.Where politics can play a major role in disease management.
SARS-CoV-2: Could it be bad?
WWW.VIROLOGY.WSWhat does it mean when A CDC official says about the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, We are asking the American public to prepare for the expectation that this might be bad.”-
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2 hours ago, swebby said:
You would hope so, bad news if the case # is accurate.
Saw this on the flu forum; posted by Italian doctor. It's going to make the CFR look horrendous.
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'In Italy, efforts are being made to communicate only the cases of new clinically relevant coronaviruses, that is, the clinical cases of patients in resuscitation or death, as occurs in other countries of the world': said the scientific director of the Spallanzani Institute, Giuseppe Ippolito, in conference with the foreign press. The 'swab positives made for any other reason will go to an extremely important separate list - he said - for the definition of the epidemiological situation'.Regards reinfection or dormancy, Chinese are putting some of the cured back into a 'cured quarantine' status as quite a few testing positive on follow up checks.
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It's not easy reading but the following article tries to explain why Covid-19 is more like SARS than flu in the damage wrought to the body in severe cases.
Here’s what coronavirus does to the body
WWW.NATIONALGEOGRAPHIC.COMFrom blood storms to honeycomb lungs, here’s an organ-by-organ look at how COVID-19 harms humans.-
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33 minutes ago, Snipper said:
“Yet Another Storm” would be good to use every time. To be honest who cares what the thing is called? Information about what where, when and how severe is all most people want.
Thought the idea behind naming was to get the name on hashtag to increase public awareness via social media. If the UK has a protocol and list of names the public expect, introducing a name from another country list is likely to cause confusion and defeat the purpose.
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I dread to think what the Red Top brigade will use in their headlines....
Being serious, it actually agrees with the Indian study which was pulled rather quickly. That's an ugly recipe but may offer more options for therapeutics.
QuoteThe new coronavirus has an HIV-like mutation that means its ability to bind with human cells could be up to 1,000 times as strong as the Sars virus, according to new research by scientists in China and Europe.
The discovery could help to explain not only how the infection has spread but also where it came from and how best to fight it.
Scientists showed that Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome) entered the human body by binding with a receptor protein called ACE2 on a cell membrane. And some early studies suggested that the new coronavirus, which shares about 80 per cent of the genetic structure of Sars, might follow a similar path.
But the ACE2 protein does not exist in large quantities in healthy people, and this partly helped to limit the scale of the Sars outbreak of 2002-03, in which infected about 8,000 people around the world.
Other highly contagious viruses, including HIV and Ebola, target an enzyme called furin, which works as a protein activator in the human body. Many proteins are inactive or dormant when they are produced and have to be “cut” at specific points to activate their various functions.
Coronavirus more likely than Sars to bond to human cells, scientists say
WWW.SCMP.COMResearch by team from Nankai University shows new virus has mutated gene similar to those found in HIV and Ebola.-
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1 hour ago, General Cluster said:
Sorry Spike, but there can be no political ideal so sacrosanct that it overrides the lives of ordinary people, IMO...And if that means that I, me, myself need be confined, isolated, quarantined (call it what you will) and borders need be closed, then so be it...?
IMO, the COVID-19 virus may be one of those situations where politics need take a back-seat?
If borders were to be closed, the time to do it was weeks ago !!
The disease is well bedded in; just took time and serious cases to identify it from seasonal ailments.
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1 minute ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:
I get what you’re saying. I respect that view you uphold of Schengen.
The virus itself though can be slowed down. Only we can slow it down however. Sometimes for our own safety, we have to compromise traditions, activities and put whatever views (political or not) aside for the best of everyone’s health. This is a matter of life and death to a fair few people.
If the virus takes proper hold in Europe, people themselves will restrict their travel: purely from the point of view that they will want to stay home and not get caught up in lockdown in other areas. This has taken less than a week to move up several gears; a week where many people were on the move during school holidays.
I can see communities being isolated in individual countries but there are just too many land routes across European borders to make closure effective.
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1 hour ago, swebby said:
I can not vouch for the accuracy or quality of the reporting below, but this tied in with the above stats coming out of Italy (30% hospitalisation, 10% requiring ICU) is real cause for concern.
New China coronavirus data buttress fears about high fatality rate - STAT
WWW.STATNEWS.COMThe WHO official's claim was quickly challenged by an expert who said it would be highly unusual for there not to be mild cases that are being missed.Re the doubt about non detected cases, this excerpt from French reporting caught my attention.
Quote"Case number 13" concerns a young Chinese girl who returned from a trip to China on February 7. She is hospitalized in Paris. "She protected herself, she has had only four contacts in the past two days", contacts which will be "maintained at home", noted the professor who described the patient as "poor in symptoms", simply citing ailments of throat and cough.
To tell the truth, if it is indeed a new case, the girl is no longer sick as explained by Jérôme Salomon: "She has a very reassuring picture which has also caused much discussion about virologists since it is negative but with traces of recent healing. We have tests which even show that the person is no longer a carrier but has been, thanks to extremely sensitive tests. She is doing very well. have already tested her partner who is negative. "She has presumably done her shedding and healing over the last 3 weeks without any detection. I would wager she is not an isolated case.
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Novel Coronavirus – China
in Space, Science & nature
Posted
Interview with Italian specialist.