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Nath
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Posts posted by Nath
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Overall trend across the models is good today compared to the way things were going yesterday. I am not gonna get excited by one good GFS run as these are like rolling a dice lately. Lets hope the momentum keeps going tomorrow with favourable trends becoming agreed on by all models and moving out of F1 and into reliable bit by bit.
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18th December 2010 beats 79,81,87,etc. It got a lot worse then the attached taken in the afternoon
It was not sun bathing weather
That was the only time I have seen the meto issue an "extreme" weather warning for the SE England in my life!
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Just after Christmas 1978 - might have been Boxing Day, or maybe a day or so later - very heavy snow in the Maidenhead area, where as a young kid we'd gone to spend Christmas with an aunt. My first experience of very deep snow. Went home to a "pipe freezer"- pipes split, with tubes of ice supporting the metal. Body heat, flooded house... A reasonable amount of snow at home, but nowhere near what they'd had in Maidenhead.
I remember that, I think it was boxing day evening when it started to snow with a real Easterly gale. The next few days were winter wonderland with (small) snow drifts and everything!! As I was 9 at the time I loved it, just as I would if it was last year lol
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Swallows flying backwards, lots of blackberries, saw a unicorn today. The planets are alligning and pluto is in uranus. Gotta be a white Christmas surely!!
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Gotta hand it to the BBC, they were spot on!!
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Amazing how these can form in 30 mins! Nature is mazing!
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Instant storms appearing WOW never seen anything like this!
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That cell S of East Grinsted came out of nothing to severe in 10 minutes, seriously!
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It just doesnt feel like a stormy feeling at all. Hope im totally wrong and it all goes bang later!
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Damp squib incoming (at best) take me back to the 1980s please!
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This winter has been "better" than last winter in so much that I have seen a snowflake this time!
I do miss the proper winters of my youth in the 1980s. If nature were to throw us one for old times sake any year soon, this country wouldn't know what had hit it
And whilst she is at it, if mother nature could throw us an old time "proper summer" with lovely weather and proper thunderstorms that would be great. Thanks in advance MN.
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I guess the reason the models are fluctuating wildly is that mother nature herself hasnt decided what weather to throw at us next week!!
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Just for giggles whilst waiting to see a snowflake this cold spell, model terms and real meanings: Feel free to add
Set in stone = will definitely not happen
More runs needed = dodgy stomach
Bin this run = Likely to verify
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got a feeling, think theres a reasonable chance of a freeze developing.
not that i want one...
Mushy if your saying that I think weve got half a chance of something decent. Ive stroked my lucky goose as well.
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I actually saw a snowflake today for the first time since Feb 2013. It was in a sleety rain mix but it was white enough for me to class it as a bona fide snowflake. Looking to see at least one more next week please!!
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Although the models looks great for cold and snow, we have been here many times over the last few years only for it to go completely pear shaped. I cant allow myself to get excited until T-0
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Can anyone explain why we're suddenly looking at a real cold spell, when only a couple of days ago it wasn't looking likely?
Thanks for the update Ian. I will provide my usual translation service for NW coldies.
Because we are in maritime climate where the prognosis can swing wildly at the drop of a hat.
Downpour is spot on. 9 times out of 10 it will be the cold spell disappearing, this is a rare one!
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You don't see the 850's temps in the US nearly off the scale that often:
gfsnh-1-288 (1).pngI am seeing three reloads of cold into the US in the next 12 days with another one maybe later. It is quite possible that the Conus will see a record breaking winter (again)!
The op in FI goes more the Atlantic ridge route again. Expect flip flops galore in the next week:
gfsnh-0-324 (2).pngI can see a scary purple dinosaur attaching the US in pic 1 lol
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Im not a bitter person, but if I dont see a single snowflake for the 2nd winter in a row (after seeing a snowflake+ in the last 40 winters) I might just have to kill a unicorn.
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Nothing these charts show can possibly be worse than last year!! I just hope they dont equal last year.
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Go have a look at Gavs vids on TWO, the 1981 winter one was a dream for both cold and snow
OT apologies
Being 13 at the time,, that winter in London was the snowiest, coldest, most severe I have even seen, by a long way. I remember on 2 or 3 occasions It would start snowing in the early afternoon and just get heavier and heavier stopping all public transport, and most roads as well.
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A really interesting read, many thanks for this.
All I know is that this winter cannot possibly be worse than last years, where for the 1st time in my entire life I did not see a single snowflake!!
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Quick 5 min storm moved through. A few flashes and heavy rain for a few mins. Feels like there is more to come.
Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I would call that a heads or tails moment. Two distinct scatters, one load going for the freezer, the other going for an Atlantic return. Do you feel lucky punk, well do ya....