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Nath

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Posts posted by Nath

    Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The most wintry spell since last spring is on the way, the weekend in particular looks chilly with wintry showers and frosty nights.. We were not able to achieve a wintry summary like that for the entire winter apart from a few exceptions, and more specifically at munro level in the scottish mountains at 2000 feet asl and higher.. Enjoy it fellow long suffering coldies :-)

    How can we enjoy a wintry spell in late March, especially after a winterless winter!! 

     

    All we want now is a nice spring, a summerey summer (heat, fine barbie days and storms) and a winterey winter 2014-15!!

    • Like 4

    Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Maybe / If / Verify... Call it what you like!......A countrywide snow event with widespread -10c uppers! An absolute laughing stock!...... YES WITH JOYPosted Image

     

    Posted Image

    IMHO 1/100 chance, but would...

    A: Keep my "seeing a snowflake every winter" alive for its 45th year just when I thought it would fail

    B: Make this winter even more mad!!

    c: Be cold  :)

    • Like 2

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    would just be our luck for the weather patterns to change finally and we end up with bitterly cold spring, therefore prolonging winter for another 2 months meaning even more heating costs.  Too little too late in my opinion. 

    That is the single good thing about this winter, my Mum being of a certain age gets a £200 heating allowance and we havnt had our heating on for a single minute. LOL

     

    For the record this could be the first time in my 39 years of observing that I will possibly not see a single snowflake during winter.

     

    If I dont get a summer of heat and storms I will expect my mum to receive a summer "disappointment payment" of £200 also!!

    Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 22nd July 2013 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

     Bit of a bust of the forecast today so some examination is required. Soundings show rather higher temperatures and humidity required for initiation early on than thought and the morning cloud cover played a part in keeping temperatures just below those needed. Combined with that was the convergence zone not really developing in the way expected and humidity arriving in the UK a little late.

     

    Radar shows some storms have developed central south which are trundling along towards Leicester and Northampton with further development towards Peterborough. There is a storm to the south west of London as well. I expect most of these storms will be elevated rather than surface based in many cases. Eumetsat images suggest things are not quite going to play out as forecast overnight and tomorrow either.

    Mother nature will never sucumb to perfect forecasting, not in 10000 years!!  She never ceases to suprise and elude everyone!!

    Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st July 2013 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    The NW shower is just to the SE of Ellesmere Port but is not producing lightning, the juicy storm fueled atmosphere has not yet reached this far north. The London storm is centred just north of Kilburn with another area of development SE of Watford (although no sferics from this as yet).

     

    Edit: Nath, you are probably directly underneath it Posted Image

    Yeah, about 1 second between flash and bang!! Hardly any rain though.

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