-
Posts
1,191 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Everything posted by Sainsbo
-
That was fantastic! Time to sleep and hope we get lucky tomorrow too. Best of luck to those who haven't yet gotten any storma, and I hope the people who have got them have enjoyed them.
- 3,744 replies
-
- 2
-
- plume
- thunderstorms
-
(and 4 more)
Tagged with:
-
NMM 4KM 18z has what looks like a MCS shifted westwards. 50-60mm quite widely, up to 100mm in places. Pointless getting bogged down on locations but someone's going to get it
- 3,744 replies
-
- plume
- thunderstorms
-
(and 4 more)
Tagged with:
-
I can hear the odd rumble too. What do you think of our chances tomorrow?
- 3,744 replies
-
- plume
- thunderstorms
-
(and 4 more)
Tagged with:
-
If I read the sypnosis correctly, there is the potential for storms with such severity that they could warrant a level 3 being forecast, but currently due to uncertainty they are referaining from doing so. Sounds good to me. There's potential for some real crackers! I m quite surprised at how limited the level 1 and 2 warnings are to the S/SE
- 3,744 replies
-
- plume
- thunderstorms
-
(and 4 more)
Tagged with:
-
Comparing minute differences between the chart runs is just going to drive people insane, nothing else. Someone's going to get a spectacular show, the only way to find out who now if to keep watching that radar.
- 3,744 replies
-
- 1
-
- plume
- thunderstorms
-
(and 4 more)
Tagged with:
-
Indeed, BBC's forecast this evening hilighted the potential for 50-75mm of rain within a couple of hours. More than enough to cause problems
- 3,744 replies
-
- plume
- thunderstorms
-
(and 4 more)
Tagged with:
-
Biblical rain rates from the storms off to the south west, approaching 250mm/hr!
- 3,744 replies
-
- plume
- thunderstorms
-
(and 4 more)
Tagged with:
-
Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards
Sainsbo replied to Jane Louise's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I stand corrected. Thanks for the info Other than the MLCAPE chart, I'm not aware what the others mean, so my statement was based mainly on that chart alone, which didn't look fantastic. I'm not going to complain though, much more to get excited about if there's a risk on Thursday too! -
Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards
Sainsbo replied to Jane Louise's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Agreed, Thursday isn't looking great any more, but Saturday is still screaming potential. A westward shift on those CAPE values would be nice. -
Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards
Sainsbo replied to Jane Louise's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
That's a hell of a lot of CAPE for the SE! -
JTWC's latest advisory puts windspeeds back to 110kts (125mph), category 3 on the SS scale. The system's expected to slowly weaken as it heads towards Japan, but will likely still have a large storm surge due to it's size and prior intensity. What a difference a day can make. Hopefully some people willl be able to breathe a sigh of relief.
-
Neoguri seems to have started an eyewall replacement cycle, as cloud tops have warmed considerably. According to the JTWC's latest advisory, sustained windspeeds are at 135kts (155mph), just shy of category 5 on the SS scale, but looking at it on satellite, it seems that the eyewall replacement has weakened it. The JTWC did predict Neoguri to maintain Category 5 status until Wednesday, so it is entirely possible that the eyewall replacement cycle wil have finished by then and allow time for re intensification before landfall. Even if this doesn't happen, the storm surge and rain will still be a very large problem.
-
Spot on SS, latest JTWC advisory puts sustained windspeeds at 130kts (150mph), making it a super typhoon, the first of the season. Neoguri is expected to strengthen overnight, attaining sustained windspeeds of 145kts (165mph), which would make it comfortably a category 5 on the SS scale. SST's are still very warm and Neoguri seems to have gotten a lot of the dry air out of itself, I can't see too much stopping it from reaching that intensity unless anything else springs up.
-
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) estimations for Arthur seem to be going a little wild, suggesting sustained winds at surface level at 97kts (110mph), almost a major hurricane. Wouldn't pay too much attention to them just now as recons are much more reliable, but here is the link for anyone interested. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2014/adt/text/01L-list.txt ADT also has pressure down to 959mb. For the sake of those in North Carolina, let's hope it is overdoing it. The 5PM advisory from the NHC keeps windspeeds of 90mph, and puts pressure down to 977mb. Still a few hours left for additional strengthening, wouldn't be surprised to see the next recon finding 100mph surface winds of higher, making it a category 2, which is forecast. Not often that you see a Category 1 hurricane with such a clear eye and well defined CDO. Impressive! My thoughts are with everyone in North Carolina.
-
Unable to show all comments on status updates.
Sainsbo replied to Sainsbo's topic in Help, support and feedback
Thanyou for the suggestion, but I've already tried clearing my cache to no avail. -
Unable to show all comments on status updates.
Sainsbo replied to Sainsbo's topic in Help, support and feedback
Hmm, maybe it's something that will just fix itself then. Thanks! -
Worth noting that the majority of the models now take Arthur up to or beyond 85kts in ~24 hours, which would make it a category 2. I think the NHC may take this into consideration when issuing their next advisory. The Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) suggesting that Arthur is already at 82kts (94mph), just shy of category 2, but it does seem that the ADT does sometimes overdo it. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=01L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0
-
Unable to show all comments on status updates.
Sainsbo replied to Sainsbo's topic in Help, support and feedback
I am also on Firefox, but I have tried on Chrome and get the same action failed message. Did it just fix itself or did you have to do anything? -
Hi guys, I've noticed a problem pop up over the last few days and I'm unsure why. On the sidebar where the recent status updates are shown, I can click "view comments", but on a status update that contains more than 3 comments, I get a message saying "action failed" when I clike "show all comments" If my description isn't clear enough I can take a screenshot. Does anyone know how I can fix this? Many thanks.