warmintim

I was amazed by how little rain we got in Bath and Warminster yesterday. The radar looked like it would be a drenching, but the forcasts (especially the high res) suggested we would see very little and were right. I'm just glad it wasn't snow...

What a nice weekend! Saturday looked like being grey, but the sun came out and gave a nice afternoon for cricket. Yesterday a glorious blue sky start with a walk on the hills and then some gardening. Lovely. Feels like we are finally on track to summer...

Definite snow in bursts on the hill at Bath Uni this morning, not just horrible wet, cold rain!

Chilly this morning - -0.4 and needed to scrape the ice... Looks set to be another glorious day.

Lost half a tree... It's not supposed to look like that...

As ever its very subjective, but for me one great snowfall makes a winter special, and so this event has made winter 18-19 a good one, irrespective of anything else that happens. I know the background signals have all looked good, and the long range forecasts have not really reached t=0, but its wise to remember that they are probabilistic - and just our luck that the more likely options haven't worked out for us. I've chosen the following picture as my new desktop, to remind me off three classic winter days of snow, long wintry walks and drifts (Temp -10.5 deg C, about 8.00 am on sunday 3rd)

Back in 2010 (Dec) we had -15. Same set up as last night with good snow cover, no wind and clear skies. I surprised a fellow dog walker with just how cold it was this morning. In a sense she was right as it didn't feel that cold ( no wind, sun just coming up), but the thermometer doesn't lie.

Just goes to show what snow cover and clear skies can do - -10.4 this morning.

Do it

Clearly getting better and better for most of us in this region (at the sad loss for the midlands, north etc). Remains to be seen how much will accumulate, and I suspect there will be big variations, not impossible to have a 10 cm whilst 3 miles away only 1-2 cm. Seen it before.

Bath. I've been putting it in most times tbf!

Looks like the fun is over now - heaviest precipitation has passed... Left a covering on the roof opposite and on the grass... So close, and to be honest better than some winters I can recall... Fingers crosses for overnight and Thursday now!

Settling now at the Uni

Would look pretty - lovely snow falling, but its obscured by the rain-drops on my window...

Now turning to snow... (Bath Uni, so a bit of elevation to help)

No need to apologise - need for calm heads. We probably won't know until this time tomorrow if we are really in the game or not.

Sleet at the Uni in Bath... It's coming (but not to much...)

Based on one icon run? Knee-jerk reaction!

It should always be remembered that the likelihood is for the disruption caused by the weather, not the likelihood it will snow.

I also think intensity is going to be important. The radar has some decent precipitation rates way out west - will that reach us and give a chance?

I'm not sure Tuesday looked as good at this distance out (<70 hours). By this stage, if I remember it rightly, we were down to the thin band shooting west to east, with already questions about rain/sleet/snow. Of course there is still mush time for Thurs to 'go wrong' for us (too far north - very possible, too far south, possible, but less likely). This is also the main system edging in rather than todays scenario. As ever time will tell...

That's more like it...

Going to be an annoying day for most of us in the region. I suspect elsewhere we will see snow and probably a few places doing well, but it just looks on the wrong side of marginal for the SW. That said, we may get more chance of at least falling snow as the cold front moves through, and that's much later today (esp for those further east). At the moment Thursday look much more interesting...

The grid's gotta have a boundary somewhere. I love Lloyds32's confidence. If I didn't know better I would suggest he is hedge betting on the result, and hoping to be wrong. BBC forecast this morning VERY interesting for both tomorrow and Thursday (speaking as Bath/Warminster location).

Definitely sleet now at the Uni!