I totally understand the caution - I like to warn wife and friends a bit ahead of MET/BBC of possibly snow and cold weather, but I'm always loath to do it too early. We have had some tantalising output this winter, much more so than in recent years, and for most of us in the South it's not really delivered. However I do think that this time it is different. We have reached the much closer timescale for looking at the charts (Tuesday's potential now only 120 hours out, not 168 or more). There is also a high level of cross model agreement, with only minor differences. Of course all the runs are just possibilities, and from a pessimist there is always the fear that the downgrade will come. Time will tell, but I am much more hopeful this time than I have been since probably Jan 2013.