warmintim

Enjoy it! Stuck in the underground office mostly...

HI Andy, Yep - I saw that too! Does it count as snowfall if you can count all the flakes/grains?

Much as I dislike quoting IF - he is calling it a polar low, and if an official forecaster and an FRMetS is, then I will too! This is exactly the kind of meso scale event that are not picked up by the models.

Also had snow/snizzle up at the Uni in Bath...

Interesting 06 on the EURO4 - http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=weas&HH=24&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= Ties in with the latest Metoffice warning for the south too http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1422489600&regionName=sw

'Is that your usual room sir?'... Looks like the best shot in the shorter term is mon-tues. Tricky when its so far out in model terms, but the 2013 event was picked up 5 days ahead very well, so who knows!

Never seen it as quiet... I guess really model runs don't cut the mustard for this as we are looking for mesoscale development and nowcasting. Re the 2004 Thundersnow - I was in Norwich and we had an epic fall of snow very quickly and my sister nr Salisbury reckoned that it was a good fall round there too (around 4-5 inches I think) - what did others have in this region? In this kind of set-up we are heavily reliant on troughs and disturbances, although IF's talk of the low sliding from Iceland down has promise...

06 GFS has 850s trending down over the weekend (-7 for me by Monday). Also to some extent the countryfile forecast last night.

I think there is interest for some in this region as we go from Wed to Thursday - there may be enough precipitation and cold air to give some falls of snow (showery), and especially for the usual suspects at height. After that the really cold air is expected over the weekend and we will be relying on troughs to pep up any showers and as ever the wind direction will be crucial. After that its all to play for - far too often NWP for 7 days ahead and longer is taken as gospel - even with ensemble support things can still change as we get closer. There is a kind of madness in these forums - we spend months looking for colder weather and then when it appears we get obsessed with the breakdown. I for one and looking forward to a cold northerly which has a chance of giving a bit of snow to my area - may not be 12 inches on the ground for 2 weeks, but that is never likely in Warminster...

Just had some light snow at the Uni in Bath - nothing to get excited about but another 'day' of falling snow...

-4.5c this morning (car thermometer reached -6c briefly) and great to have a proper frost at least out of the cold (cool, cooler, less mild) spell... Still think there could be a few surprised people tomorrow in the West Country - these types of weather are tough to get exactly right.

Snow on my car this morning (ok only a dusting, but the car was cold enough to preserve the flakes that fell! ). Slight westerly correction of the forcast snow for Tues/Wed - I suggest most in the SW will miss out but you never know - height and a few most favourable adjustments and some of us might get lucky. For all those (mainly on other threads and sites) who think we are in the last chance saloon - its still only the 19th Jan - this cooler spell arose at fairly short notice. A possible SSW is coming and there is still 5-6 weeks of the heart of winter. Longer daylight hours doesn't kill lying snow - its the air temps and dew points. Keep hoping...

Snow in the air in Warminster, tiny bit on the cars but temps too high. Cley Hill looked like a mountain (i.e. snow on top!). Reaching the University (Bath) much snowier and coincided with a decent snow shower. White everywhere but not much really 1cm at best. All in all great to see first snow of 2015 and best snow since 2013 - just hope that's not it for the year!

Too young to remember Jan 2013? I assume you work at a nursery then!

This is definitely going to be a hit or miss affair. Some will get absolutely nothing out of this (either not cold enough so rain, or no precipitation), others could do well enough to see snow falling and settling. As ever this is likely to be yet another classic example of not taking NWP at longer time scales at face value. The old adage of getting the broad scale picture in place and then looking for things that pop up at short notice is often forgotten, but is the best way to go. The widely forecast Jan 2013 now from a front moving in (well forecast up to 5 days ahead) is the exception.

Not expecting 6 inches of lovely snow, but after last winters sum total of about 20 mins of flakes falling, the possibility of waking up to even 1-2 cm of wet snow is enough to get me going at this stage. I think the excitement is coming a lot because of what happened last winter (or rather didn't...)

I'm on the SW edge of Warminster at around 130 m asl, but further into the Longleat woods the ground is higher (as you sat up to Heavens Gate) and in Dec 2010 there was noticeably more snow here than in the lower parts of Warminster. Could be fun and games for the University in Bath (close to 200 m asl) on Wed morning.

Yep - I was watching the forecast yesterday and dreaming of Feb...

Beautiful day yesterday - cracking walk round Horningsham and then to Heaven's Gate overlooking Longleat. Did not feel like mid Nov.

Am I odd to look forward to the rain and colder conditions? Don't know why but I've not enjoyed this long warm dry spell. Might be linked to picking about the only poor weather week to holiday in Devon...

Glorious day yesterday in Warminster, back to Mrach reality today and which the weeks forecast from last night. Easy to think the spring is more advanced than it is when you get days like that. Lots of time cleaning the greenhouse, gardening, walk in the country. The giveaway is the fact it gets dark so early and the temp drops sharply.

Sounds good!

How's it looking in Warminster now Andy? Took a long time ot burn off at the Uni in Bath - but it is finally sunny now. Hoping for a nice run in the woods when i get home...

Are you specifically tempting fate! Looks like the rain will get there soon...

Is it wrong to have been mildly excited by the very wet sleet on the windscreen in Warminster at 7.25 am this morning? Is that a measure of how snowless this winter has been! Best (i.e. hardest frost) of the whole winter arrives on the first day of spring. Roll on 2014-15 winter...