warmintim

Yep - a touch of Imby about my last post - I won't apologise, I suspect we are all to some extent keeping tabs on our own areas...

So the 06 run from the GFS has the precipitation missing us to the South (over the channel), in contrast to the suggested track on the BBC this morning. In time honoured fashion both 'more runs needed' and 'now-casting' come into play... It's a real knife edge - too far north and the cold air may be kept back, too far south and it'll be cold enough but dry...

So caught the BBC weather this morning (about 7.20am) and there it was - a big lump of precipitation heading over our region - with much uncertainty about how far north it will be and whether it will be rain, cold rain, very cold rain, rain with sleet mixed in, sleet, snow etc etc. As so often the case with these events we are 48 hours out and still not sure what we will get. I will predict that someone in the south-west to south-east will get some snow out of this, but who is really the big question... Happy days and better than waiting for a zonal train to keep sending endless belts of rain our way!

With the proviso that these are currently for parts much further west! I'm hoping to see something on Thursday - it's been a long time since Jan 2013 - the last couple of winters have both managed a pathetic slushy deposit in air that was just too warm - maybe this will be different. Its also fascinating that the models are struggling to find a common solution at such short range. While I'd love the outcome to be more ECM, my head is nagging away at the sod's law of snow forecasting - worst model wins...

Its called weather! I don't think the weather forecasters help with the insistence on saying 'temps warmer than normal for the time of year' or 'colder than normal' or my big pet hate -'about right for the time of year'. This is always based on an average figure (climatology) and made up of lots of variation. It's perfectly normal to have warm days in December... (just not what I want)

-6.8 (proper thermometer) this morning and the car saying -8... I think I'll trust the former! Had to scrape the car twice last night, once on the way to and then on the way back from running... I see that I may get another decent frost tonight too - I am enjoying this weather - just wish I was able to be outside more today to enjoy it!

Not sure where it comes from but I've seen it a lot on here and on TWO in the past. I know many peoples focus is just on snow, and the only result they are looking for is heavy snow, followed by ice days for weeks on end, but for many of us ALL the intricacies of the weather are fascinating (even, dare I say it, last winter, for its relentlessness...) I revel in days like today - just wish I wasn't at work for it!

Absolutely! I think for some it's only cold if there is snow too... Still see frost in the courtyard at work and suspect it will stay all day as the sun can't get to it.

-5.0 deg C last night (edge of Warminster). I guess this is what some call 'faux cold'? Cold enough scraping the car! Very encouraged by IF's update on the long term prospects. It seems a bit like waiting for Christmas, but at least we are in a far far better place than last year. Looking forward to running in the cold tonight!

0.1 deg C showing on the thermometer this morning... Looking forward to a frost tonight!

Very dark getting up and then leaving the house at 7.20 in overcast, wet conditions... Looking forward to some early sun tomorrow!

Andy - I've been thinking (and saying it to the wife) all week!

The sun is already very pleasant when it shines - I suspect it won't take much for it to feel quite spring like with a base temp of 10 deg C and then some strong March sun (as strong as mid September). This time of year can see crazy swings of weather - from walking in the snow on friday night to possibly cracking out the shorts next weekend...

I think it depends on when and where for this. If you check out the run there is a clear signal for much colder air to spread south during Sunday. SO at 6 am there is 11 deg C in the extreme south and -2 in Scotland. Later in the day the cold air has flooded across all areas so by 6 pm it is 2 dec C in the far south, with a dewpoint of -3. Will be an interesting change to observe (if it happens as this run predicts - which it won't...)

Sometimes, but rarely we get to see the snowline and I have a hunch this might be one of those occasions. I recall a couple of winters ago Cley Hill (near Warminster) had a distinct white top, but nothing at lower levels. I've also seen it on the hills above Westbury/Warminster. Looking at lots of available info this may be the case again. I also recall one night driving back in the rain from Frome to Warminster and going up into the snow when climbing up near Lane End (a rise of around 30 mtrs). Useless snow really - slushy and gone in under an hour, but right now I'd take that to at least marginally redeem this awful El Nino winter...

I blame Carol Kirkwood... I was late picking up my car share as scraping the car took 10 minutes! I assumed it would be easy to scrape as Carol said it would be -1 - it was -5! Hard frost, and ice on the inside. I put it down mainly to the Wren Close frost pocket (lovelly bowl shaped valley, with us at the bottom...) Have mostly given this winter up now - I was briefly interested about this weekend but tbh seeing 7-9 deg C described as 'bitter' by Carol is the final straw! Bitter! Really...

I know its a typo/autocorrect - but I love the idea of food air!

At this point it's of no use claiming victory for one suite over another. I would guess we will end up with a blend of all, but the emphasis will be which model comes in closest to the actual weather. It's easy to look at the GEFS ensemble and assume that it's 'won' however a small shift in progression can lead to very different outcomes, especially when the target area of interest (broadly the UK, but tbh for most of us the backyard...) is so small. The 12z will gives more of a steer - wasn't it always the case - more modelling required!

That's an amazing difference at not too distant a point in the future! They can't both be right...

Tbh I think it is possible to put too much weight into the extended met office forecasts. As with others suggestions I strongly suspect that not much time and effort goes into them. For a more accurate reflection I suspect that Fergieweather's post about how much uncertainty is present even in to the medium term, and the known poor handling of models in displacing entrenched cold air by milder atlantic systems is a truer reflection of metoffice thinking. As we finally move into the period of colder weather there will be small features popping up - I would suggest keeping an eye on the EURO4 for potential wintry precipitation at short notice when the colder air starts to feature more.

So not just me then! Was taken a bit by surprise by the thunder - and the rain. Mainly as the rain didn't knock out our Sky signal (normally does when it gets really heavy). I jokingly said to the wife 'hope it was thunder, otherwise Warminster is under attack..."

-1.6 deg C this morning in Warminster and a lovely sunrise too. Glad I didn't have to scrape the car...(got a lift today!)

I did just find this though, from the summer and taken in the Quantocks... http://www.itv.com/news/westcountry/update/2015-06-23/watch-stunning-shots-of-northern-lights-from-somerset/

I heard her say that too, but I have not seen any evidence. I wonder if it was a mistake (or a mis-hearing). If they were seen from Somerset then surely Wales too (given enough chance with cloud etc)?

Surprised to encounter a very heavy snow (wet) shower on the way out of Warminster today - it had accumulated a good 1/2 cm very quickly... Now snowing again at the Uni on Bath. Not going to be epic, and this is the best we've had really but still way better than last year!