Froze were the Days
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Posts posted by Froze were the Days
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4 hours ago, Rob 79812010 said:
Think 20/21 was colder than 91 to 2021 average
And 2018
True but I generally go by 61-90 series, many mild winters in that 91-2021 series...you don't really need a cold winter to be below that series you've compared with...
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Heights to the south continued Atlantic activity to the north and west...the ridiculous +NAO anomalies continue which have been off the scale since roughly 2013. Still waiting for a colder than average winter which hasn't happened since 2012-13.
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7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
Yeah didn't take mystic meg to work that one out...you won't be hearing much on twitter from SM and the 'Metronomic consistent GFS' for the next week or so
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1 hour ago, lassie23 said:
The beast is dead i got the garden ready for nothing
It was never alive...the GFS likes to house many of these imaginary beasts only for them to disappear into thin air, what would we do without the good ol' GFS? be a bit boring just watching the euros most winters, I swear a number in the MAD thread are only bothered about the 'chase' with the models as opposed to what happens outside.
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It's like BFTE X Files for some in the MAD thread...they want to believe - that the GFS is on the money no matter what! and looking under a microscope for changes that the euros are heading in that direction.
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36 minutes ago, MATT TATTOO said:
Cast ya minds back to Summer when this model got laughed at for breaching the 40C barrier!
Can you really compare Summer to Winter when it comes to modelling?... we all know reliability for forecasting is pretty solid out to 7-10 days plus ahead in the fore-mentioned due to such slow moving synoptics. When GFS forecast the hot spell how far out were we talking?, I do far less model watching post Winter
GFS always brings the hope...but in reality if you stuck to just the Euros this thread would have less than half the posts!
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GFS is just laughable...watch the backtracks (but then anything would be a backtrack on the 06z run).
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3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:
Anyway, upgrades are being mooted in the MAD thread. But, when morning comes, will they be downgrades? Who knows!
BFTP is 'mooting' a definite solar induced SSW warming leading to a very cold March...better glue that sole back on my flip flop and buy some factor 40.
The waxing and waning in the MAD thread has been right up there in the last couple of weeks...boosted by a possible SSW, a week of silence and some Atlantic driven charts and now some potential from 1 ecm run and everybody's gung-ho again! It seems like it has been always like that in there though.
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4 hours ago, Sunny76 said:
No, that’s not exactly true.
In fact, the summers have become duller during most of the 2010s and early 2020s. More cloud in peak summer months, and some summers with more rain.
Summer with more rain?...not in the south south east there isn't (haven't you read the reports in papers that green lawns will be a thing of the past)?, yes when it rains probably more substantial amounts, as for cloud amounts if so I haven't noticed it, maybe a case in point towards August onwards when the sst's are topping out.
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17 hours ago, Sunny76 said:
Last summer was exceptional, but we don’t get long periods of warm sunny weather every year.
Well they're becoming more common place...starting earlier with summer creeping into spring months.
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I'm still going for Winter's over...looks like a tepid few weeks coming up after an initial very brief Arctic plunge which skirts the UK.
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2 hours ago, scrat said:
It's so miserable.....roll on summer!
It will be here sooner than you think...with the ever present European heat dome!
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Oh joy! more cold rain to add to the bouts I've already had, just thinking the other day about the sunny days we've had with the frosts (not being too bad) and then a faux north easterly develops with a high displaced to the west and we know what that means!!! No winners here...
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Usual GFS rogue run rubbish...
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Dreadful outputs in the medium/long term...another mild February on the cards, I'm going for 'Winter's over'
as for current weather equally nasty...certainly for utility bills, no sun but cloudy and fairly cold - trying to keep the house warm.
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2 hours ago, Frigid said:
SE folk must be satisfied with this winter so far. A pretty good snowfall in December with a severe cold spell, snowfall on ground for around a week. And another cold spell in January with notable mins. Only thing that let it down was the mild period mid Dec to Jan.
Its a change from the dull, nondescript winters they get over there.
Well not all have seen snow...I travelled around on the 12th December and many coastal districts (Essex) and further north received nowt but rain, but yes if you like frosty/icy conditions so far this winter has been better than average just a shame we didn't get the seasonal conditions over the Xmas and New Year period.
See BBC once again has been well out with their extended forecast (as from mid-week last week)...they had Sunday and Monday down for 9c, the reality is yesterday had a max of 4c and currently sitting at 2 degrees, they really want to kick that MeteoGroup into touch, not the first poor forecast 5 days ahead I've seen over the last couple of years.
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Really a struggle to get worth while heights into Scandi which would go onto effect here...too much action from the Atlantic and the jet heading into the Barents Sea location, certainly something I've noticed over the last couple of winters which is becoming more frequent.
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4 hours ago, JoeShmoe said:
Looks like a cold rain fest in the SE, was it ever going to be anything else? And can someone tell me the last time a U.K. HP cell moved northwards (and didn’t topple SE)? Must have been a long time ago now. At least it’s going to dry out a bit
Xmas 2005?
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Box ticked for the cold rain (again)...by and large that's what a majority of the cold spells bring now days in my locale...Winter 2020/21 we had 3 periods like this until actually getting decent low dp's and temps from the easterly in February.
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I've got a feeling that now we've seen a cold spell in December with Ice and some snow, a spell of mild wet and windy weather from Xmas to mid-January the next step (after this brief colder snap) will see a period of quiet mundane conditions, not overly cold or mild...watch this space which could last a few weeks. Watch this space.
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2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:
A wee looksee at the WF in the Indie, and Tuesday-Wednesday look to be around 2C, but with only a minuscule chance of precipitation. How bloody typical!
I'll stand by for marginality and probably cold rain if we get any precip...seems to be the way here on the Riviera of recent times other than Feb 2021.
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13 hours ago, kold weather said:
When you have a month period running at 250% of normal rainfall between 15th June and 15th July locally, I think its fair to say it was a total stinker. I locally managed a 3 week period of 10hrs total sunshine in that lot, that would be poor even in winter (though I admit I was unlucky with several days of training convection whilst places 25 miles north had sunshine all day) That's not to mention a really poor August that struggled to get I to the 20s. The warmer than average was a function of mins holding up and two warmer bursts either side of that dreadful spell.
August wasn't that bad where I live in the south east (remember some sunny days intermixed with cloudier ones)...yes that period mid-June to near mid-July was bad granted particularly if you lived towards the south/south east but that's not a whole summer, even the MetO recognised in their review of the season that the fore-mentioned period (mid-June to mid-July) gave it a bad reputation but the further north and north west you lived the summer was better than average for temperatures and sunshine duration. We also had a heatwave after mid-July with temps in the low to mid 30's over wide areas of the country.
Off the top of my head 1979, 1988 and 2012 were generally worse...
Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Froze were the Days
Chortle! all that and we find the affects/projections (possibly) at the end of the month beginning of March are nowt!