Froze were the Days
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Posts posted by Froze were the Days
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Utterly dreadful weather here continuing...heavy rain, seems like the last week rainfall has got stuck over this corner of the south east, bloody Europe!
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Well that was a rogue December then...I too agree December probably pips November when it comes to +NAO and dull, wet miserable days. December 2016 the UK largely experienced high pressure at first over the country and then to the south or south east for most of the month...drier than normal conditions but not surprisingly with such a pattern still milder than average with frosts only becoming more frequent in the last week.
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19 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
Its November, probably most consistently unsettled atlantic dr8ven month of the year.. settled cold ones are rare. To be expected as you say.
Still seems a long time since we 've had a coldish, frosty, foggy one even by UK standards...I can remember several like that back in the 70's/80's.
20 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:To be fair though we might get a rare fine interlude this time next week, with an unusual combination of mild and sunny, perhaps.
The only pattern change we seem to get now if not unsettled with LP closer to the country is then for a drier mild/warm southerly to set in...sad times.
No doubt our climate is getting less varied.
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You Know November is here when you don't see the sun for a few days and there's incessant rainfall...charts showing nadda in the way of a -NAO way out to mid-month...nothing changes.
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Another typical Guy Fawkes night coming up...damp, light rain and miserable. i.e. rubbish!
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What would we do without the GFS in FI!?!...the one straw to cling onto which very rarely comes to fruition...as per last Winter ECM at D10 offering very little hope of anything remotely cold in fact a return of late summer.
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Give me strength!...just seem the latest ECM det, same old same old.
To quote The Stranglers 'Something better change'
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ECM det at D10 still ending on the same old rubbish...more unsettled for sure and windy at times but the same theme is still there, largely LP's (secondary at times) swirling around to our north west and west and good ol' Europe untouched.
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As if the MetO have been accurate when predicting colder than average conditions of recent years...they're usually caught out when going for a greater chance of milder conditions (trying to think when that was, as we haven't had a colder than average winter in yonks) maybe 2012/13?
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2 minutes ago, Don said:
Don't know about that?! But yes, it will almost certainly be in excess of 2C above the 61-90 average.
By and large the end figure does 'seem' to be corrected downwards...one of the mildest Octobers I can remember, roses and flowers in bloom, grass growing, goldfish at the surface of the pond needing oxygen - all signs things ain't normal.
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No CET updates...obviously as usual finding away to get the figure put downwards, I'll eat my left foot if this month is less than 2.0c above than the 61-90 series.
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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:
EC 46 ditches any notion of High Lat blocking.
I suspect the stubbornness of Euro heights underestimated..
The words chocolate and teapot come to mind...
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8.7c for me please...mild but not quite so.
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1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:
True, Damain -- but that's been the case since early June or so; the Atlantic still hasn't broken through the European heat dome. At least not decisively?
Exactly! ECM finishes where it left off with the Atlantic systems so far north we end up with another plume (of sorts)...as you say the most dominant continuous feature of the last few months. I've heard a few say we can get our own UK cold pool if we have HP close to the UK but at best I reckon we'll be looking at near daily norms if we're talking into December...still so warm on the continent, we're really scraping >
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It was quite a bit colder in late September than it is now...that period seems the only noteworthy spell we've had this year with temps below normal for a week or tad more. As poster weatherhistory alluded to the other day you'd think all the mild/warm conditions which has lasted months has to come to an end sooner or later after all isn't weather meant to be 'chaotic' even if it is for only a week or two.
Big question is when will we get the next cooler than average month (1961-90 CET series)?...be good if we had a run of cooler months this Winter.
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2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:
Somewhere between 19 and 21C over here, Beks -- 21C in Sarfend: @Froze were the Days will skinny dipping in the North Sea!
In the mud on the Crouch
20.5c here today so...
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2 hours ago, Don said:
Yep, any colder weather being put back and the s word has been dropped. Been here before and alarm bells now well and truly ringing for the next season!!
Said that EC46 was about as accurate as Stevie Wonder at darts...huge dose of salt as soon as I saw it, latest ECM mixed at 240z and still when Lp's get near the UK has the tendency to want to move northwards away from Europe where the continuous heat bubble continues.
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Real grim viewing the ecm det...good for the utility bills but little else if you're a coldie!
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ah! this is where our thunderstorms are - in late October!...couldn't make it up!
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10 hours ago, Don said:
Why do you think that?
Just the ever present greenhouse of Europe...not necessarily a sw/ne jet (maybe at times) maybe some Pm air in the jet but not at all convinced of the latest ec46 mslp anomaly charts for November...we've seen them be well out over recent Winters.
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After watching the ECM det runs for numerous days now I have to say I'm absolutely bored!...current trend is to make it even more unsettled with somewhat more of an Atlantic influence but STILL with low heights to our west and still mild/warm. I'll go as far to say that when we do have a pattern change it will be back to zonal with a sw/ne jet stream...exciting stuff!
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8 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
Its a stuck pattern for the foreseeable, trough to our west/sw, ridge to our east, mean flow predominantly between west and south. Mild for all, very mild further SE.
Longer term, need to wait for upstream changes, will the pattern shift east.. or west.. will we see something akin to GFS 12z, which shows the ridge backing west and south west.. and then NE bringing a scandi high. One thing that seems absent is a powering of the jet.. leading to a very slow moving pattern, we've seen this since Dec 2020, la nina base state possible reason..
Where has the zonal flow gone?
It's waiting til' Winter proper gets underway
but agree with your summarisation of the current situation, day after day of the same stuff and warm continent...almost a stuck west based QBO.
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Hopefully this will enlarge...taken from Dr Simon Lee's twitter page of the MSLP anomalies this month for the coming months...I'd bin JMA they always go for a blocked cold outlook at this time of year only to back down as we approach Winter proper.
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ECM det runs of recent days have been mind numbingly boring if you're looking for something other than a southerly jet...so strange to continually see, not our normal west to east Atlantic weather though far from it. What it holds for the coming months god knows but by god I want that continent to cool down.
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Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Another thriller of a day out there...cloud, light rain and fairly mild - yawn!