Froze were the Days

Temp: -1.2c and Dp: -5.5c but dry.

What sort of dew points are we looking at for snow rather than rain? Thanks.

I think for some areas that mIght be a little premature coming from Mr Hammond but as said 72z+ is a long time away in this blocked evolution so 'I'll keep an open mind

That run that Michael Fish has just presented looks like what the GFS predicts the back end of next week...eventually to a milder Atlantic I should think. Interesting times between then and now though.

1.2c here and lovely sunny day - really not sure about the weekend and if we'll see that much in the way of snow, it appears the further west the better!

hhmmm I'll think we'll see a less cold period next week as the next depression tends to swings up from the west rather than undercut although northern parts will probably remain cold after that back to nationwide cold again, but saying that I'm going largely on what I've seen on the ECM/UKMO 12z's.

Have to say a little disappointed (in terms of recent output) with the 0z's from the Euro's although some time away the next LP towards Monday looks like positioning itself to the west/South west of the UK rather then sliding ESE as progged by some models a day ago. It looks like a snow to rain event in the south but more interesting for central areas and to the north before the LP slowly moves SSE. Can't help feeling that some SE/Eastern parts will not see much in the way of snow in the next week other than a snow to rain affair. ECM trending towards milder conditions in about a weeks+ time but as we know that's along way off considering how the models have been handling just 72/96 hour periods. Any chance of convection off the North Sea when the wind veers more easterly as the depressions fragment/dicipate?

How much confidence is there on this board that the Euro's and a few other models are far closer to the mark than the GFS ? does make you raise an eyebrow when you similar runs and it has been shown a similar evolution to the break down for yonks (even it keeps being put back).

GFS just goes the way of previous runs - after 'jumping ship' yesterday on the 12z it's strange how it's gone back to it's usual power through the block regime (which it had maintained for days) - there does seem a period where this model around the 120z mark doesn't seem to know where to go but stays remarkably the same for a day or so and gives us a 'col'.

when do the updated FAX charts come out?

Fancy that a bumpy ride coming up in terms of whether we'll see snow or rain as if we haven't had enough of the rollercoaster so far this winter! - from my naked eye I'd personally say viewing the charts from the 12z's I'd go for cold rain (yuck) in this region and more wintry the further north you are.

Robbie we need to see that block more amplified so the WAA goes up steeply towards Iceland and the trough near NW Spain develop so we get a stronger southern arm to the jet, on this chart anyway. What you've shown looks like only a break down of the HP.

Anybody seen the ECM 12z ensembles? - Like the pattern of the latest BOM by the way - nicceeee!!

12z GFS does make more of the heights to the North East than other runs but it is yet again another 'flabby' area or almost a col, I think there maybe more of a chance towards 240z or so of HP coming back from the north or north east but the initial busted block theme will continue on the 18z I believe for this weekend and has done so for days now. Be nice to see the GFS 'flip' and go along the lines of the ECM or UKMO but I don't think that'll happen. This is all just guess work based on hunches so basically I've just wasted the last 5 mins of my life!

I don't mean to be pessimistic but going by the modelling so far this winter, pick the best looking model in terms of cold and longevity and bin it because that's the way it's been so far - ECM might be closer to the mark but who knows! Great model watching (it seems like this winter has gone on yonks and we're only 1/2 way though).

UKMO looks the best at 96z and with the Atlantic depressions somewhat further west would allow for better undercutting and THEN we would be in for a shout with real cold easterlies, ECM progs the block strength more to the east and the milder air up the west side of the country but still a battle to be had in FI. What I want to know is why the GFS is so consistent with the Atlantic coming in from the west and the other models not?, this has been happening for days!

So that means it's going to happen then? - don't forget it was just yesterday that Exeter 'watered' down their FAX charts in correlation to some of the other models.

Nice to see the stubborn GFS continues in the same vein of the last couple of days or so and that's to bring the Atlantic in from the west (very consistent it has to be said) - UKMO continues the undercut but in theory by 144 I feel the majority of the UK will be in milder conditions after initial snow towards the southern and central parts, can't help feeling the ECM will revert back to a similar pattern like the GFS has been showing. What ever happened to the heights towards the north west as shown by some pressure anomaly models, not showing up in general on the op runs.?

Poor here today - temps generally around 2.5c in the precipitation of rain and sleet although Maldon up the road had a spell of wet snow for about 35 minutes and the grass is partly covered over so I feel the further north (Essex) the more success in terms of snow.

UKMO and ECM (showing some undercutting) - so good but GFS stuck in the same pattern with the strong northern jet arm powering through, who will be correct? or will it be a half way situation. Even if we do get some undercutting the Atlantic at this point still looks to strong.

Personally feel that BFTP has called it about right but still the possibility of some snow tomorrow in areas (NE/E) and a small window of opportunity for some eastern coastal areas on Tues/Weds and then some coldish days and frosty nights but nothing out of the ordinary in regards to cold spells.

The mighty NOGAPS/GEM and a soon to be watered down UKMO (following the FAX) against ECM and GFS - hmmmmm.

One thing I have noticed the inability for any sustained big heights in the correct place this winter (above 135mb) it just hasn't happened and we've had to rely on very 'weak' looking heights out to the north east whilst we have these sw spoilers continuing and a PV not wanting to stray away for too long from Greenland.

Can't see that happening at all, maybe towards the north but the uppers will be too high. Just by looking at the synoptic of that it's simply not cold enough.

and at 204z PV sets up shop in it's usual place and a westerly jet ensues. GFS not throwing us a bone at all, even the easterly looks like a maximum of a 1 day event.