Froze were the Days

Yet again the whole of the Atlantic taken over by LP - a wee bit like in mid-December (strange we had heights close to Scandy then as well). GFS showing permutations on the same theme really in the mid/long term and that is gradually trending unsettled and somewhat milder. errrr!

looks pretty certain we are going to get some influence from the Atlantic late in the week/early next week and the form horse is probably with the ECM (which hasn't changed at all with the link to the Azores high) and the GFS. UKMO and GEM have been in the same boat for the last day and the HP gives more amplification out west and the possibility of undercutting. Saying that read the odd post saying that this 12z run is really poor but it's no worse than the 0z and it does give us some opportunity with a weak trough trying to go southwards but most of the energy is to the north, even at the end of the run is far from certain so some hope.

GFS/UKMO/GEM are all similar mid-week the difference being the amplification of the GFS (and in all honesty hasn't really strayed away from showing a stronger northern arm to the jet and never strays from boosting that PV up near Greenland so very consistent). Interesting to note that the Beeb forecast for the week showed HP somewhat to the north of the UK and UKMO model only briefly showed this yesterday so a bit strange and doesn't really tie in with the UKMO outputs. I personally think ECM will show more of the same tonight and the probable form horse will be the jet to the north next weekend bringing in the Atlantic but to the degree the GFS does is debatable and certainly would put GP and RJS forecasts out the window.

Going by the NOAA discussions presented by Nick S that the model to follow over the next few days or so will be the UKMO and certainly looks a better bet with heights certainly further to the north than GFS/ECM. A lot to play for and some fascinating model watching.

8C!!! - don't be silly

So around 120z we have UKMO/GFS/ECM largely similar synoptically but with minor differences which can make quite a big outcome further down the line. GFS and UKMO tend to build heights somewhat further north and act as a 'buffer' with the possibility of undercutting of Atlantic fronts in a weeks + time where as ECM plays catch up with the Azores high and tends to sink somewhat and once again tries to maintain a stronger arm to the northern jet. Should be interesting to keep an eye on any short waves at lower latitudes in the next 5-6 days time to see if we can get somewhat of lower heights to the south west. Overall good to see the models align (for once) to a degree and a step forwards to day in terms of a cold spell until Friday at least.

Not sure what the Express has with the '20 years figure'? - At the beginning of December they had as headlines 'Coldest Week for 20 years' and as we all know how accurate that was!

Noticed the GEM 0z is very similar to the UKMO at 144z and goes only one way and that is to undercutting and very cold conditions thereafter.

Yep! complete opposites. All about the shape of the block after monday, UKMO. looks good but obviously ECM/GFS doesn't

Well the UKMO HP looks completely different to the 'sharp ridged nose' of HP coming out of Scandy on the GFS runs, you can see the potential for the Atlantic to eventually break through as early as +102z (Jet developing). As mentioned all about the short term and what the troughs do, UKMO has a more 'buffer' shaped high pressure and better angle for under cutting where as the GFS/ECM ridges WSW. Yeah mighty PV in FI on that run - 940mb!! no Greenland Heights from that scenario.

I thought we were meant to see height rises towards Iceland and Greenland in the near future, both the GFS and ECM medium/long term outputs are the opposite of that! - but they both look ok up to about 120z.

Looks like quite high uppers in there as the LP's get closer to our shore - very marginal I would think (certainly to the south and west).

Just another groundhog day, whatever the outcome many members will remember this period simply for the model 'clashes'. This morning before going to work it looked like the zonal train was becoming evident, now this evening somewhat veering back to the cold side.

and the debacle goes on....maybe on Sunday we might no what direction we're heading in.

This is the worst they've been by far - beyond a roller coaster by now.

The worrying thing is the GFS runs make the return of the jet to our north look very 'clear cut' where as to get the cold in place next week the synoptics look far more messy - I know I'm talking in laymans terms but sometimes you have to take a step back and look at the bigger picture, I know it goes against the SSW event and the pressure anomaly charts at present but wouldn't surprise me if the GFS is on to something - unfortunately. (But what do I know).

God! wish I hadn't of looked since first thing this morning - still got no where! Have to say the models are handling whatever comes our way woefully...is anybody else getting a headache, this has been going for the best part of 4/5 days now for what will happen next week.

What are the GFS ensembles showing on that 0z run?

Ensembles perhaps reacting to a failed link up to GH (144z) period which does looks a bit 'dodgy' on this run.

144z area of the run looks pretty crucial if we are going to sustain deeper cold from mid-week on (16th) - looks susceptible to the Atlantic but other than that pretty good consistency!

lol! just got back from work and hardly nothing has been answered apart from a cooling towards this weekend...I think for the sake of my own health I'll stay away from this board until the weekend (still will be up in the air), I love looking at the models at this time of year and thought the debacle of last February was enough but this has been eclipsed!

I really don't know what to think of at the moment in relation to some of these outputs...I feel totally drained. As mentioned very tight margins whether we get a cold spell next week or a route to mild stuff.

Less cold next week? - we're not even cold yet and don't expect to be until Saturday/Sunday at earliest, so that's a bit confusing.

Reasonable model outputs this morning and feel somewhat more optimistic than I did last night although the ECM does delay a possible easterly by a day or so. Overall not bad 0z runs!

Yeah a good post by Mr Brown a while ago on models 'picking up signals for scupperers' - they are so all over the place at the moment there isn't a true scupperer. Nobody knows what will happen at +96/120 by viewing the 'big 3' and that has been the same for the last couple of days. Also as Chris Fawkes said he'd be very surprised to see next weekend end up as the ECM 12z has shown, If you looked at the ensembles in total for the 12z's you'd see what an absolute mess is going on at present. Well forecast Ian F !