Froze were the Days

Yes they are! but also low enough to our north - GFS desperately lost in the SSW signals I believe and searching for a solution towards mid-term outlook. UKMO slightly better with Heights to our north and a low cutting through us at this time next week but as ever it was always going to be fascinating model watching once the SSW event was in place whether we receive the 'goodies' is another thing! Far more runs needed until we know roughly what direction we are heading in and it might well be the case FI might be within 3/4 days for some period to come.

At least 18/20 looking favourable with heights to the north/just north and a continental flow, so all in all reasonably good and 12z not that much of an outlier but probably towards the cold side. Interesting not that many with HP over the UK. (approx 10) so make of it what you will.

12z was exactly what I feared when looking at the 06z - I had a response from Nick S about this - but as you can see we don't get the amplification and then the undercutting under this rather 'dross' looking area of high pressure to the north and in plac we have a short wave just to the west which really doesn't do anything and the greater heights to the south become evident. Surely though yet again isn't the outcome of this run going totally against the signals (yet again) of the SSW event with low height to the north?

Not to sure I liked that 06Z run - looks very complex, notice how we depend on a stronger Iberian High to link up with the rather 'flabby' looking northern HP close to the UK and then maybe draw in some continental air. Still really not sure we'll see anything significantly cold before mid-month, prospects do look good in the longer term but can't help feeling that the Iberian High could put a clanger on us and draw the 'potential' High being too far south which fails to link up with the Greenland position later. Just thoughts, and maybe looking at the synoptics with a glass half empty.

Just got back from work...actually quite happy with the ECM tonight looks like that is slowly picking up the SSW signal and now looks far more favourable of some sort of cold weather towards mid-month than a day or so ago. Trending in the right direction, forget about detail.

Please please don't let the Daily Express get wind of a possible SSW event, they'll go ballistic!...and game over.

Steve Murr is a changed man after the December debacle's!! - it was like a stake to his heart (really can't blame him). A long way to go in this winter and it has to be said zonaish conditions over the next 10 days looks more probable and Mr Brown's mention of January's and February's of recent years is quite apt - but I still think we've got a chance of 'something' occurring when this SSW event takes place - just not a lot showing at present. At least the CFS model which was zonal steady a week or so ago looks fairly constant for heights to rise to the north after mid-month.

Just got back from work and had a look at the op runs...and yes getting no where on the ECM and still the same chunk of the PV heading somewhat south eastwards towards the U.K. but becoming increasingly delayed. So overall not seeing anything (yet) to wet my appetite. As for the MetO getting excited towards the end of the month..I find a bit bewildering at this timescale, maybe too much expectation on the SSW effect?

Yeah lol! - somebody has been feeding that model the New Year sherry!

Yep a very similar run towards FI and no point putting detail on it as this is the lo-resolution part of the run but with a secondary SSW event occurring I believe some time after this. So this timescale around mid-month is the period to watch.

Totally agree, many a winter from the last 20 years or so shows that once we get a mild Atlantic theme going (as per last year) it can go unabated for weeks with only temporary 'settled' spells. Collated my local records yesterday dating back to 79' - we only have had 3 January's and 2 February's colder than average (not allowing for marginal ones) over the last 20 years. Yep we well could experience a colder second half to this winter but if I had to hedge my bets I would say that probability says that December again will will be the coldest month anomaly wise and the rest of winter rather mild - but you can never disregard a cold snap as we have 2 months to go.

yes you have that right until you 'flop' badly

I'll settle for 0.5c out my brief forecast for the month wasn't far out and on top of my record last winter pretty happy overall but well done to the above lads only .1c out!

I always get a bit concerned (and I know this has been said many times before) when the FI stays in the same range, I know we're not really expecting anything substantially cold if it comes before mid-month but the FI the GFS op runs have been rolling out have been less encouraging over the last couple of days, the ECM op runs have been showing very little either and today's 0z run seems to have a relatively 'flat' zonal picture again becoming established at 10 days and the GFS run isn't far off this either. CFS model although far more blocked than previous models runs has troughing dominant in mid-Atlantic and not a very favourable position for the U.K. although this is far better than than what the GFS and ECM are showing us at present. Like to have kicked the year off more positively but I have to say the charts are a tad disappointing in the medium term outlook.

1/10 if it's a projected easterly and possibility of a short wave 'popping up' in the Norwegian Sea! let's try and forget about those episodes and look forward to a better 2013!! Yes Happy New Year to all!!

Sorry had to make a slight adjustment to what I originally posted but it doesn't change the overall point, I know you can't base a forecast on what has happened last year or over several years (as there has been a slight theme since 2008 for some colder than average months) but based on just what I have been through this afternoon and collating the figures together the chances are that this month (December) has by far a greater chance of being a colder month anomaly wise than what we'll experience over the next 2 months. Add this factor and a look at the teleconnections, Strat and models just before the beginning of the next month and take a prod at the CET. It worked for me last winter (I don't think I was more than .3c out on any month from Nov-Feb) went for 4.3c for this month (Dec) so a little out but not too bad.

Just been through compiling my archives for Winter temps (for the coast of Essex) - goes back to 1979, it tells a pretty sad tale (in terms of cold). In the last 20 years I have only recorded 3 colder than average January's (1997, 2009 and 2010) for the term 'colder/milder' I allow more than 0.4c either side of the mean for the month. February is even worse just (1996 and 2010) although there have been a few occasions when a particular month has been 'marginally' colder. December is the only winter month that continues to see fairly regular colder than average conditions (1992,95,96,99, 2001,05,08,09 and the best of the bunch 2010) - coincidence or not? With the regularity of mild Novembers and February's winter largely does seem largely consigned to 2 months.

I think we're slowly going into a period of uncertainty - going into a period of High Pressure close to our shores and no active low heights close to us but can't help thinking through a majority of the models the cyclogenesis coming out of Canada even in the medium/long term looks far too active. We have seen FI runs with a Greenland HP becoming more extensive and then runs that show blocking to our north (and it has to be said from strange evolutions) and now the ECM 'wavering' with HP near to the east but the last day on the GFS op runs still shows active depressions 'building' in the west of the North Atlantic. So overall happy we're going into a pattern change but still very unsure if we'll get to any synoptics that bring in any significant cold. 40% HP then back to zonal 40% HP close to the UK and remaining for some time. 20% HP eventually to a cold evolution.

Have to agree with you on this I was only referring to the medium term on the 0 & 12z ECM model and not the members.

Hmmmm really difficult one to predict, obviously a mild start and I can see some cooling towards mid-month and after but not enough I feel to off-set the mild start so I'm going for 5.4c

Yeah the 'grumpy' model ECM not buying into any northern blocking for the moment and it does seem GFS only shows this in FI which doesn't seem to be getting any closer. One piece of good news is that the CFS v2 model 0z run that has been rock steady with zonal type conditions for yonks now shows a far more blocked synopsis in the medium and long term out beyond mid-January (well this morning anyway). As per the post I have just seen above

Doesn't surprise me - that run seems a bit strange to me and as I said the 180z-216z looks like the Atlantic should come alive again with a secondary depression forming and moving north east as per the ECM to a degree. Certainly looking at the medium/long term output with a slight shake of the head. ECM will have to jump ship to start taking the bait.

To me the 180-216z period looks strange on the GFS (and on other recent runs) - I'd place money that a secondary LP would break the ridge of HP down and a NE/SW jet stream becomes evident, this is what the ECM is showing at present but a day or so later. For some reason the GFS is showing the Atlantic weaker - certainly a difference between the 2 models at present.

Yep ECM again not playing ball, in fact ECM really around the 240z mark wants to bring the Atlantic in (very similar to the 0z theme). Wasn't the op run for the 0z meant to be a mild outlier? strange we have another run very similar!

Very consistent modelling for an extensive area of high pressure to become established firstly to the south of the UK and then just to the east or south east of us, so mild fairly calm weather will be the order of the day from towards the back end of this week what happens there after becomes interesting.