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mpkio2

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    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Hey all to all my fellow SouthEasterners 😄

    Well, as promised, I got up early and walked to my local park in Central London (Regents Park) and my god it was like walking in a winter wonderland! ❄️⛄

    I think we easily got 5 - 10cm here, which is very impressive! Looks as though some places got more or less depending on where you live in the SE.

    Anyway, here are a few pics and video of me walking in Regents Park in Central London! 🤶⛄❄️

     

    Could contain: Weather, Nature, Outdoors, Ice, Scenery, Snow, Winter

    Could contain: Nature, Outdoors, Ice, Weather, Snow

    Could contain: Weather, Nature, Outdoors, Ice, Frost, Snow, Scenery, Winter

    Could contain: Nature, Outdoors, Winter, Building, Architecture, Weather, Blizzard, Snow, Storm, Person

    Could contain: Weather, Nature, Outdoors, Ice, Frost, Snow, Scenery, Bird, Animal, Person

    Could contain: Weather, Nature, Outdoors, Ice, Tree, Plant, Frost, Snow, Fir

    • Like 15

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I must say, its not ever winter where the SE corner gets snow before some part up north! Usually the north get snow first and then we last! Nice for a change, eh? 😆

    Also, still snowing moderate in Central London! Sadly, I'm not outside to enjoy the falling snow, but you can bet on your rear-end that I will be out first thing in the morning to my local part to enjoy the snow, take some pics with a nice hot chocolate in ahnd! Awesome! 😁

    Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, Jason M said:

    The big picture has changed though. We were looking at massive heights over Scandi and an easterly, now we have lower heights over Scandi and a northerly. As it happens, both are cold patterns, but they are 'different'. You often see confusion on this forum in times when all the charts are showing cold but from different synoptics. In truth the signal just means that nothing is nailed on, and we then normally end up with SW winds!! That's not the case here though as whilst the big picture has changed most of the models are broadly on the same page. In summary, its highly probable that it will get colder. It's not looking like anything dramatic at present but some will see snow.

    I wouldn't say thats a change of the "big picture" however. I am using the phase "big picture" as meaning the "overall" theme of a cold pattern. And I think this is where the despcrancy is coming from. Has the synoptics of "how" the cold occurs and the pattenr changed from model to model run and have models changed from where the cold comes from? Of course, I am not disagreeing with that notion. That was never my arguemnt. My arguemnt is that "the big picture" is still showing a cold pattern.

    Does the model show a cold pattern in frame I show down below?
    ECH1_120kav8.GIF.png

    If you can answer with "yes", then that is my arguemnt and I will leave it at that.

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    Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    A small detail is not a 500 mile shift north. This has a huge implication for the dynamics of the snow risk. its still there but its likely to be troughs vs widespread showers. still cold. 

    ECM1-192 (43).gif

    ECM1-144 (41).gif

    You are missing my point.

    I'm not talking about the synoptics of snow. You started your arguement that "the big picture has changed".

    I refutaed your arguemnt and said the big picture has not changed as the models are still showing a cold pattern.

    Here is the meaning of the phase "big picture" from Dictionary.com:

    "big picture

    See synonyms for big picture on Thesaurus.com

    noun

    a broad, overall view or perspective of an issue or problem."

    The "overall view" is still the same; a cold pattern.

    • Like 14

    Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The irony is is that last year the NAO had months of negativity during the later summer and autumn months and then flipped positive as we hit Winter. I thought "Well, nature will have to balance that out...." and believed the NAO would stay positive. Low and behold, my guess/theory was correct.

    I believe we won't get a cold spell (Pro-longed cold spell with snow and ice) until late February/March at the earliest. 

    Don't mean to be pessimistic, but that's just where my thinking is. Kudos to those who are always observing and putting their necks out on predictions! 

    • Like 1

    Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 hours ago, jules216 said:

    I was very optimistic about our chances of cold February in autumn, but I have a feeling the - QBO ať levels down to 50hPa is flushing +QBO down to surface and subsequently extending Haddley Cell - mid lat westerlies between 15-35°N, widening Haddley Cell is the single most to blame phenomenom for crap winters in recent past,thats my opinion, we would be better of with ascending then descending -QBO.

     I agree! Its been proven that very strong -QBO through Winter months causes mild weather for UK winters, which is what we are experiencing thus far. 

    Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

    It just goes to show that although a negative QBO likely helped northern blocking to occur last month, the pattern still did not come together to bring a cold spell to Britain.  

    A very negative eQBO can lead to more mild weather during Winter for UK, as GavWeatherVid's demonstrated in his Winter Update videos on YouTube. I think the QBO has over ridden any other background factors. 

    • Like 1

    Spring 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Yay! A perfect setup pattern for cold weather! We got our wish cold lovers!

    Late and in April!!!!!! 

    Gah!!!, its like someone you invited to a party and they don't show up til the party is ending and then they show up ready and then you think "You might as well go! You missed it!"

    Like......ugh what a waste!! I would rather it didn't show up and we just had a pro-longed warm spell now.

    Thanks weather gods, but no thanks!! 

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion 10/02/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    A cold lovers dream, perfect synoptics, if it was January, but perhaps not to everyone's taste in April.. government will be pleased or may be not they've waited until the 12th when looking at such charts! Trace isobars back and its classic cross polar flow, role reversal, doesn't get any more anomalous.

    I have to agree. I don't wanna be pessimistic but I hate when the models show these kinds of setups that are perfect for one part of the year and materialize at the wrong time of the year instead. Like this setup is perfect for the winter (Looking at sub-below temps and ice and snow), but we get it now in April? I just can't help but feel bittersweet. Like got the right pattern, but its all way too late.

    I would rather the models show a long pro-longed warm pattern now

    • Like 4

    Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by mpkio2

    To be honest, I rate the HARMONI model quite highly. A few years ago during a rain to snow event (Think it might have been 2017/2018 for the 10th Dec 2017 snow fall), many models were flopping around if it would snow in the south (London) area, but HARMONIE ranted and raving saying "Yes it will snow in London!" Guess what? It was right!!

    But of course, it could easily be wrong this time around.

     

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    Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020/21

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

    The NSIDC extent has set a new record for the largest -ve anomaly (relative to 81-10) for each of the last 6 days.
    We are currently:
    - lowest on record by 380,000 km²
    - below the 81-10 average by 3,309,000 km²
    - below the 80s average by 3,935,000 km²

    NSIDC19th.thumb.jpg.0be8370b2e5a8fa8f68789b937b9b386.jpg

    I'm not really knowledgeable in this respect, but, due to the low ice extent that we've been seeing, what this have side effects on the upcoming winter and encourage HLB in the hight latitdudes over the pole? I'm a strong believer that this happened in 2012, on our all time  record breaking low ice extent, which is why we had a cold winter 2012/2013.

    • Like 1

    Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020/21

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    46 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

    Just wanted to see how we are doing for Siberian Snow cover vs 2009

    2009                                                          2020

    image.thumb.png.737be9594b587671dd4ea25d0204b8a6.pngimage.thumb.png.497ae947b3e3b58514088ca67b1cf46a.png

    Probably a bit better in 2009 but not by a massive amount. I wonder if low solar activity years always get off to a slow start due to the way the jet stream behaves and how patterns get stuck for long periods of time

    A very good illustration to point out that slow snow growth in September does not equal a cold winter. If anything, the past Septembers where we've had great snow and ice growth in September has turned out to be mild winters here in the UK, 2015/2016 winters to name a few. October is the important month.

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