mpkio2

January 12, 2017

Heavey sleet in Central London!

Heavy Snow forecast for 6pm here.

January 11, 2017

BBC are constantly changing whether I will see any snowfall in my area at 6 in the evening. Either Heavy Rain or Heavy Snow.

It's updated back to "Heavy Snow" so, so far so good.

Of course, this will chop and change in this complex situation. Will come down to a "Now-casting" event.

January 11, 2017

Way out into FL, GFS listens to GP's earlier post of lows to SW hitting the cold air to our NE.....

GFS 12z t264:

Just for fun, guys!

January 9, 2017

BBC News already reporting on the upcoming cold spell!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38555816

January 9, 2017

Once more, hello peeps!

Well, well, well! What ever has occured over the last six days since I posted?

Verification time!!!! In my last post I said that all four models (GFS/ECM/UKMO/GEM) were all in agreement with seeing this type of NWP:

Posted by mpkio2 3rd January 2017:

"2. However, if the high sticks around the top of us and collapses south, an evolution which is predicted through all the models, with cross-model agreement, will most probably occur:

06z GFS t120:

All models singing from the same hymm sheet there! Very good cross-model agreement . Positives to take? Well, the PV is centered, but not the "Monst-ball-like-monster", and appears to be being pulled at different parts around the world - especially down the Pacific Ocean, North Pacific Ocean and Europe. With Low heaights around Europe, this enables for any HLB to establish to be cut off, support it and to (Hopefully!!!!) allow for an easterly for the UK further down the line. . Don't take my word for it though!!!!"

(I didn't post all charts from models).

And this is where we stand now:

12z GFS t0:

Very happy with how the modles panned out with that!! Theres a lesson here to learn for all old and new on here; if all models don't have cross-model agreement, nothing is pinned down!!!! Looking for potential (As many of us do - as do I!!), is all fine and dandy, but is never guaranted for anything really. Just take everything else for fun! (And hope you preffered weather pattern comes to pass!! )

So, what is to come?

Erm....the cold from the NW! and it looks strong!!!

All modles show a Low pressure system coming off the Atlantic and falling down to the East of the UK with a small mid-Atlantic block allowing a cold NW/N flow.

Congrats guys!! We've got our first cold spell down to t48!!! I thought I would never see the day this Winter!!!!

What isn't nailed down, however, is the finer details and what occurs after the initial NW flow. All modles showing something different with various outcomes atm.

But whats that you say? Theres one model thats being consistant?!

A potential cold spell being predicted by a consistant ECM, with some support from UKMO?

What, no way!!!!

12z ECM t144 6th Jan 2017:

12z ECM t144 7th Jan 2017:

12z ECM t144 8th Jan 2017:

OK, despite the little hick-up from yesterday (I think the ECM was on some post-Christmas wine ), ECM has been perfoming very consistently with its Easterly trend - Easterly predicted to take shape around 15th - 17th Jan as Atlantic high nudges NE to Scandy.

How about UKMO:

12z UKMO t144 (Today):

Well not as amplified as ECM, but the trend is there.

GFS, well its a mess, but, as many have been commenting, its improving with each run...

12z GFS t168 (Today):

Funny enough, the GEFS Controll sees amplification towards Scandy around the same period....

12z GEFS Control t168:

Meanwhile JMA and GEM see the trend but don't wanna follow all the way...

12z GEM t168:

12z JMA t168:

So, to conclude: It seems the models are seeing the height rises, even if they don't go on to develop a true Scandy high - they at least see the trend from the ECM and GEFS (Wasn't it the GEFS that initially picked up this trend to begin with? ). Some have too much strenght in the northern jet which disallows any proper amplification. Whats most important is that they SEE it which, of course, does'nt give us any clue to what will verify and whether a true Scandy high will develop. But its a start I guess!

Funny how I mentioned a few days ago......"With Low heaights around Europe, this enables for any HLB to establish to be cut off, support it and to (Hopefully!!!!) allow for an easterly for the UK further down the line. . Don't take my word for it though!!!!" And now the modles are starting to show this exact pattern!!! Perhaps the weather Gods are actually listening to our prayers this season! Hey I can wish, can't I?

Anyway, Met Office putting out those Early Weather Warnings and the papers have already started printing their "Snowmegedon" articles!

No-one knows what will happen, but things are looking up. I'm very optimistic, and what ever we get, I'm gonna enjoy it, no matter how short or long this cold spell will last!!

~mpkio2~

January 3, 2017

Hello all once more!

Well, it does appear that the GFS (It's GEFS), ECM (To a certain degree,), CFS and JMA have all lead us up the garden path! - with regards to HLB and severe cold!

This is the 2nd time the GFS has done this so far this winter. Well done to UKMO/GEM for correctly calling the current short-term pattern.

So far this winter, I have remained very cautiously optimistic, not believing any model unless there has been cross model agreement throughout the board - even with consistency within its own OP and members as illustrated from last weeks GEFS and all the cold and snowy blocked runs.

Heres is a post I made (Copy+Pated from last thread!) about a week ago, regarding the mid-lat block around New Years Day:

"As some other more knowledgable posters have already mentioned ( @Glacier Point and @Tamara, ), there are some small signs of some more favourable background signals that might start to play their part and help our chances in amplifying the pattern (MJO moving to Phase 8/1/2, GWO orbit phase 2, etc,). But caution, as has been warned most assertively this Winter, is warranted here. These things all need to fall into place at the right time in order for us to take advantage of the evolving pattern.

The disconnect between both the GEFS and EPS and their Operational runs is also a big concern. Either one could be wrong to a certain degree, but, just as likely, they could also be, as others have mentioned, "firming up" on the evolving pattern and how it will play out, seeing to all the options on the table that could occur.

What do I think? I thinks its best to sit back and wait. I truly think that New Years Day (When the Mid Atlantic High forms to our west,) is the tipping point. So for me, anything after t120 (For now,) is FL. Until the models come to some sort of an agreement, everything is just for fun."

I, like most of you, am very disapointed by the forecast that the models are showing for our little island. I think we were very close to seeing an established block around the North Atlantic/Greenland area - there just wasn't enough of a retrogression push of the high through the means of the MJO signal phase 8 (Which has fallen back into COD ).

Not only that but I think most long range models have been all over the place with regards to our weather this winter - Especially ECM46 and, to a certain effect, GLOSEA, with each update pushing back the "severe" cold signal. ECMWF Monthly model had been predicting high-lat blocking since last September to occur during December, January and Febuary. As we all know, there was no high-lat blocking in December, so that was a bust. Some of the other world models (Brazillian model/APEG/JMA/cansips) had been predicting a "milder" Decmeber so hats off to them for correctly forecasting that - Albeit, in a "averaged" 3 month period of DEC/JAN/FEB so the jury still out if predicted JAN/FEB still corect!!!)

Gav'sWeatherVids video on ECMWF Seasonal Model (November 2016):

Gav'sWeatherVids Seasonal Model Round-Up (Winter 2016/2017):

As can be seen, I believe my caution was very much well warranted- unfortuantely . Anything the models showed after where FL was upto that point, was exactly that - FL (Fantasy Island). Because some of the drivers have not played ball, we are now seeing our Mid-Lat Block falling away:

06z GFS t48:

What the models got right though was the cold plunge falling down over Europe with the AO going neturaul and NAO going negative:

06z GFS t06 (Current Conditions):

42 hours later.....

06z GFS t48:

We do get some colder uppers just barely flirting with the eastern side of the country (-4 - -8), but nothing to the extent of what the GFS was previously showing for whole country.

So, where do we go from here? Well for the sanity of myself (And everyone else on this forum,), analysing all models, I believe there are two options here for us to take:

1. Many scandi blocks that have occured in the past, sometimes occur in the short range (t24- t48), and as can be seen in the models so far, there is signs of the high pushing towards Scandy area:

00z ECM t48:

06z GFS t36:

06z GFS t42:

06z GFS t48:

Notice how the UK- High is trying the edge towards Scandy, trying to retrogress. IF the Euro trough digs south enough, you can bet that the high will try even harder to retrogress to that area - however, this goes against the background signals of MJO, but surprises like this have cropped up in such a small timeframe!! Keep an eye on it!

2. However, if the high sticks around the top of us and collapses south, an evolution which is predicted through all the models, with cross-model agreement, will most probably occur:

06z GFS t120:

00z ECM t120:

00z UKMO t120:

00z GEM t120:

All models singing from the same hymm sheet there! Very good cross-model agreement . Positives to take? Well, the PV is centered, but not the "Monst-ball-like-monster", and appears to be being pulled at different parts around the world - especially down the Pacific Ocean, North Pacific Ocean and Europe. With Low heaights around Europe, this enables for any HLB to establish to be cut off, support it and to (Hopefully!!!!) allow for an easterly for the UK further down the line. . Don't take my word for it though!!!!

Despite the pestimism, I am still cautiously optimistic for the UK's chances of colder weather through the rest of winter. I may be mistaken but I swear we're only at the beginning of January and not the end of Febuary! We still have two whole months to go - potentially three if you include March - If to go by anything, March 2013 is a real good example that the UK can still get cold weather in "Spring". Taking on board @Tamara last post, cuationing that the "pistal firing too early" (With regards to cold weather) and GP's forecast of post mid-Jan cold, IMO, there is still much to happy about.

Anyway, thats enough from me. Remember, watch around that Scandy area for potential height rises.

Eyes down to see what the 12z's grace us with.

It can't get any worse, surely?

~mpkio2~

December 28, 2016

Wait, where have I seen that familiar 12z ECM t240 chart...?

Oh yeah! Here...

I'm sorry I had to!

All for fun peeps!

~mpkio2~

December 28, 2016

Wow, I go away for about a month or so, and so much has gone down!!

What with the models showing so much promise near beg Dec, only to be leading us all up the garden path (The story of Winter so far!!!) and a much more benign pattern set-up instead (Not balmy mild though!), leaving us now in a very quiet anti-cyclonic set-up with the Euro-Slug that has pesisted throughtout most of the month still near by:

The most fascinating thing I find with this December is how blocked its been with wanning off any Atlantic onslaught ...

Of course, we have had some rain and wind due to the two storms over the Christmas period, but nothing on the scale of what you would exspect in an avarage December. And even under these circumstances, we have had some chilly temps. For example, this is where we currently stand with the NWP:

Yet, most of Central England will be near freezing temps tonight :

Might point is that we could have had it alot worse than what could have happenned, esepecially when looking at the strong positive AO and strong PV over the pole. Do I have to show you last Decemeber?

Yes, I do!!!

Anywho, on to what is currently being shown in the models for next Cold shot.

12z GFS t120:

12z GEM t120:

12z UKMO t120:

12z ECM t120:

As can be seen from above, there does seem to be some sort of agreement for some form of Mid Atlantic High (Better than nothing! ). How this high setups up, how strong it will be, its oreintation and how strong of a Notherly/North Westerly will affect us, is all still, literally, up in the air, with inter-model changing these details - for now the 4 main miodels have sided in twos - ECM/GFS vs UKMO/GEM! Game on!

As some other more knowledgable posters have already mentioned ( @Glacier Point and @Tamara, ), there are some small signs of some more favourable background signals that might start to play their part and help our chances in amplifying the pattern (MJO moving to Phase 8/1/2, GWO orbit phase 2, etc,). But caution, as has been warned most assertively this Winter, is warranted here. These things all need to fall into place at the right time in order for us to take advantage of the evolving pattern.

The disconnect between both the GEFS and EPS and their Operational runs is also a big concern. Either one could be wrong to a certain degree, but, just as likely, they could also be, as others have mentioned, "firming up" on the evolving pattern and how it will play out, seeing to all the options on the table that could occur.

What do I think? I thinks its best to sit back and wait. I truly think that New Years Day (When the Mid Atlantic High forms to our west,) is the tipping point. So for me, anything after t120 (For now,) is FL. Until the models come to some sort of an agreement, everything is just for fun.

Let the rolloer-caoster continue on!!!!!

~mpkio2~

December 2, 2016

Afternoon all -

I thought I would add my take to todays discussin as it appears very conflicting/confusing re the models at the mo. The update EC46 was not what we (Coldies) wanted to hear, with a decreasing in Nothern blocking to NW of our vecinity. However, as many more knowledgable posters than myself have come in and reasured us this morning (Posters like @Tamara, @Glacier Point and @MattHugo.), goings on with the MJO, Indian Ocean - depression now circuling in this vecloity, the M1 solar flare and AAM and GLAMM proceddings, have somewhat knocked off the modles and is causing even more model violoty, the signal for more blocked weather from mid-Dec/post-mid-Dec is becoming lost and skewed due to them.

Also, I don't think this milder spell should come as any surprise. METO have been forecasting this "Milder spell near beg Dec" for a while now, even when all short-range models was showing otherwise. They still see colder 2nd half to Dec (Albeit, weaker signal -Thanks to @Ian Fergusson and his updates! )

As most point out, it is all down to timing, so of course it could all stiill be wrong. After all, LRF models can be just be as horribly wrong as they could be right - they are not void of any misgivings like the short term models tend to have. What some posters are good at, however (As @Tamara aluddes to,) is looking at the grand scale of things through various atmosperhic patterns and profiling, coupled with ones own previous knowledge, and with what LRF models are showing, one doing a LRF can take all this information in and make a forecast bassed on their knowledge and the sciene which goes behind it.

I do believe people should have more faith, and though I know its really easy to feel very bleak and disapointed right now (I am slighty too with the EC46 update,) we should all come together and unite, not fight! As some have alluded too, sitiing back and perhaps waiting for this mild period to end might be a good idea. Who knows, the siginal might become much stronger (For HLB,) once all this stuff in the atmosphere is cleared away.

Whats my point?

Take comfort in the info some of the more knowledgable posters have said, keep calm-headed, listen to others (And each other,) and we'll see where we stand in just over a weeks time. Lets get thropugh this midler period first. It might also be good for some of us to take a break from model-watching - it does really help and you come back feeling refresed with a new perspective on things! Trust me.

Anyway, take care my fellow model-watchers.

Please, keep the faith!

~mpkio2~

November 28, 2016

Guess who's back and full of optimism?!

Well, it's been almost a week since my last post (Anaylsis of the models,) and I must say, I am very impressed in how the pattern has evolved and how the models have performed, especially the ECM/UKMO.

Below is the t144 for GFS/ECM/UKMO 12z run on the 22nd November 2016:

GFS 12z t144:
:

ECM 12z t144:

UKMO 12z t144:

And this is whre we are now:

GFS 12z t0 (Today - 28th November 2016):

As you can see, the models had a preety fair idea of how the NH Pattern will pan out, especially UKMO/ECM. The overall pattern is there (Albeit, We have lower height rises around Greenland, much more less so than what was being modelled - Too much of Atlantic block on GFS!). I've been fairly quiet, knowing (As I suggested a week ago,) that end of Nov (28th-30th) was where the models were going to fly off the oinment and do their own thing. Why? It's the period where we are in right now where energy is coming off USA and, subsequiently, affecting the pattern around us. As per @nick sussex, @Tamara and @Steve Murr, just to name a few, latest thoughts, it all ties in with how much trough disruption is occuring around this period and how the models react to it and structure it in its frames - get enough energy S/E under the block and it sustains the block and improves chances of under-cut. This is why I believed FL was around this period becuase all models agreed up until this point at that time.

I also believe that the models now have another some-what cross-model-agreement up until where FL currently is, though I must stress that with the energy coming off the USA right now, any small chnage in the flow can ulter and chnage the overall patern in the run - Butterfly effect and all that! - If the model has the pattern wrong near the beginning, the rest of it will be wrong, as per a few previous runs FL has illustrated over the past week (That GFS 06z run on the 24th November 2016 for example!!!!)

Below is the t144 for GFS/ECM/UKMO 12z run for today (28th November 2016):

GFS 12z t144:

ECM 12z t144:

UKMO 12z t144:

All show a holding UK high, low off Newfowland, Alutein High Pressure, and an absolutly unhealthy looking PV, ripe for a trop split, with wave attackes on three sides!!!

The caveat in all of this is that the goings on with the energy of USA and goings on in thje atmosphere (+AMM on rise, GLAMM heading up, low zonal winds, small warmings in strat, etc,) might even chnage whats happening in the shorter term. Noticed by many on here, each run is building the UK high further north and showing some real cold uppers over Europe (Which I also aluuded to last week,) and lower temps over the Uk. Here are tonights and tom nights temps:

Yup, I'm very happy with how things are procedding into beg Dec. Also re Met Office forecast, I believe there forecast for short term might change as we enter Dec (With possible of rain and mild,), IF the pattern continues to progress in a way which holds the UK hught and brings in SE/E winds off from Europe. However, they are also using other modles and have other data, so perhaps they are seeing something that we aren't currently. Maybe future runs with show this. Time will tell.

I know I'll probably be sounding like a broken record, and many have already said this, but....

Pateince, my friends.

As illustrated over the week, a FL t384 is not the be-end all of everything, and doesn't mean that "Winter is over". Sit back, see what all the models are doing, look for trends, keep a well balanced-view.

Also, at least we don't have this:

Again, exspect some volitile inter-run modelling from.....the models.

It might all fall apart, of course. Anything is possible with the weather!

We are seeing some very good sypnoptics this winter (Nothing like the previous recent ones!!!), so its only a matter a time when we roll a 6 with the dice!

November 22, 2016

The new ECM makes its grand opening in style!

ECM 12z t144:

ECM 12z t240:

Takes a completely different route than GEM/GFS and UKMO, but still has height rises to NW.

FL, obviously, so not to be taken to seriously. It's just interesting, once more, that its picking up some signal for more height rises.

All in all, very good bag of 12z's today. Hopefully the trends will continue in this never-ending rollercoaster!

~mpkio2~

November 22, 2016

The previous cross-model-agreement at t144 on the 0z's of GFS/UKMOGEM has all but been shattered and FL lowered down again on the current 12z's.

GFS 12z t120:

GEM 12z t120:

UKMO 12z t120:

Again, they all look the same on the broad-scale of things, but the devil is in the details! GFS allows for better amplification in the atlantic, whereas both GEM and UKMO don't:

GFS 12z t192:

GEM 12z t192:

UKMO 12z t144:

Just need to wait and see what the ECM has to say!

November 22, 2016

11 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

mpkio2 - I like your post a lot! The one thing that stands out for me by T240 - a wedge of heights just to the west of Greenland. It's coming up over and over again. It doesn't guarantee a northerly, but it may well be a precursor to one.

I would agree though, looking at the ensemble clusters for T240, not to get too carried away with the idea that a northerly is imminent, because the evolution even before that point is quite scattered (as you mention).

Quite a spread there in the ensembles at t240 on the 06z GEFS, Man With Beard! But yes, some do show some some heights to the west of Greenland:

Some still don't so evolution to pattern is very specalative. Interesting, nontheless.

I'm surprised that no one has mentioned the GEFS 06z Controll run:

And goes on to a GH end Nov, going aginst OP run:

Again, all for fun and speculation; just interesting the signal is still there in the ensembles (Even if there is no UK cold)

November 22, 2016

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

There is every chance that when the Atlantic does come in it could be from a NW-SE Axis.

Its states likely to be milder overall than the preceding week does,nt necessarily mean Mild Weather, and with the metoffice using the word likely makes me believe they are very unsure themselves.

I would have to agree. Very uncertain times.

Just reading what the latest Meto 16 - 30 day forecast says, taken from Meto 16-30day forum for period after 6th Dec:

"However, some milder, windy and unsettled weather is likely at times, and as this bumps into the cold air, this would bring the risk of some snow. On balance, despite the potential for incursions of milder weather into the south at times, temperatures will probably average out on the cold side, with further frosts expected."

So perhaps, there is a HP to North with lows coming off the Atlantic bumping into cold air:

Like what yesterdays GFS 12z FL showed at end of run:

~mpkio2~

November 22, 2016

Just now, Ed Stone said:

Nice optimistic post, mpkio2. Just one question, though: what do you mean by 'differation'?

LOL, I just basically mean same theme just a little different.

As you can see, around t144 all models look the same, so same theme, but some of the positioning of high/low are different from each other.

~mpkio2~

November 22, 2016

On 20/11/2016 at 19:25, mpkio2 said:

Hey fellow model-watches,

The Epic Saga continues!!!!!!!!

I thinks its about time I put in my two cents with regards to the models and our potential for cold end Nov/beg Dec. I've been monitoring this thread since mid-Oct, and the amount of volitile model, flipping and flopping from one extreme to the other (With re cold potiential - yes or no,) has been so serve, I almost feel exhausted from the whole saga. It feels like beeing on a roller-coaster that goes on for just a bit too long and you start to think, "OK, I've had enough now," Actually, a "Roller-Coaster" is exactly how I would describe this experience!

Anywho, with ragards to the models, I believe the ECM 12z isn't as bad as people make it out to be. If anything, I think the 240h from the ECM has two similarities to the GFS 12z 240h

ECM 12z 240h

GFS 12z 240h

Notice the heights from North Canada joining up to the artic high and a low off Newfouland on ECM and GFS (Albeit, positions of lows and highs are a little different). The similarities are there - these two things can play a part in increasing blocking over Greenland.

Of course, all this will chnage in next run as it is FL (Anything after 72h, I'm considering FL in this very uncertain time!). So, whats the point of analysing this then? Just to prove the point that, perhaps, we are getting some kinda of agreement between some of the models.

~mpkio2~

Hello once again my fellow Model-Watchers!

Alert! Big post incoming!!!!!

Continuing on from my last post, as illustrated above, the continuation of cross-model agreement seems to have progressed further with each run from over the past few days. You can see how the runs on the 20th both had some sort of agreement on a Mid-Lat High, Artic High and Newfoundland Low around the t216 range at the time. On todays 0z runs, this continues to show (Albeit, a little different, once again, on positioning and differation on the same theme, but now shows it around t144 on GFS/ECM/UKMO and GEM respecfully:

GFS 0z t144:

ECM 0z t144:

UKMO 0z t144:

GEM 0z t144:

GEM a little less so, but overall theme is still there.

You would have thought just by looking at them that they were all from the same model run! Very good cross-model agreement which to me has increased over the past few days and pushed further into the semi-reliable period! This, re cold pattern establishment, is very good news and seems to be where all the models diverge into FL on what will occur over the NH profile and the atmospheric conditions which are likely to affect all patterns (i.e. all potential patterns to emerge - mobile/cold/cool, etc).

As some knowledgable psoters have already aluuded to on here (@Glacier Point, @Tamara, @nick sussex and @fergieweather ), the models are finding it very difficult to pull in a consisive pattern after at least t138 due to the ongoing and unpreccednet atmospheric patterns and other factors which largely have an impact on the artic profile (e.g. low solor activity, warm artic profile, polar vortex in shatters, low artic sea ice, strat warmings). It all has an effect and is causing volatile model output lately, swinging from one output:

ECM 21/11/16 12z t240:

To another in less than 12 hours:

0z ECM t240:

The good news in all this, however, is that it still allows for a cold pattern to setup, as aludded to @fergieweather latest post and news from METO and BBC; with continued for end No/beg Dec of +ve height to NW and +MSLP to NE. The models up to 27th of Nov (Next week!), shows the potential for this pattern to setup, as illustrated to yesterdays 12z!:

GFS 21/11/2016 12z t216:

It just so happened that both GFS and ECM yesterday picked up the same signal after t144 (re a cold pattern emerging). It all hinges, as @nick sussex is alluding to, the amplification and the amount of energy coming off the USA, with the alinment of the NF Low and how it sends WAA into the North Canada/Greenland sector, which is what all the models are finding most difficult up until this point!

GFS 21/11/2016 12z t192:

The NF low in yesterdays 12 GFS run, shows the negative tilt which allows WAA up to Greenland area, thus supporting s sustained and strong high (Good for re cold pattern - frigid cold pattern! )

Which leads to this latter on:

Todays GFS 6z @ t192 still builds a GH, but isn't as strong and doesn't allow for a biting cold pattern:

Of course, this could all go pear-shapped as some of the output shows, but its still there to look at, nontheless. I do beileve that looking after t144 is all completly FL, what with all this flipping about in the models. The agreement, for now, is still there on all models up until t144 which is very good!

As some have said, the good thing about the 06z is that it has increased the cold around the t150 - t168 (Around the boundary of FL):

Another good thing about the 06z is the cold pooling to the east into Europe.

GFS 06z t144:

With the AO/NAO currently forcast to stay negativ, theres much to play for:

Members go up near the end on both AO/NAO forecast sheets, but I think we should wait until we get to the most negative phase and see what might occur.

Overall, exspect more flipping and flopping with the models until at least next week, while the models get a handle of all the atmospheric conditions and other factors which are currently occuring. An old and broken record saying, but...pateince is required! Theres a lot of stuff going on at the mo so just give it some time. It's not Winter yet peeps! Keep the enthusiasm going!

Heads on and lets see what the 12z grace us with!

~mpkio2~

P.S. Thanks for the likes on my last post! You guys rock!!

November 20, 2016

Hey fellow model-watches,

The Epic Saga continues!!!!!!!!

I thinks its about time I put in my two cents with regards to the models and our potential for cold end Nov/beg Dec. I've been monitoring this thread since mid-Oct, and the amount of volitile model, flipping and flopping from one extreme to the other (With re cold potiential - yes or no,) has been so serve, I almost feel exhausted from the whole saga. It feels like beeing on a roller-coaster that goes on for just a bit too long and you start to think, "OK, I've had enough now," Actually, a "Roller-Coaster" is exactly how I would describe this experience!

Anywho, with ragards to the models, I believe the ECM 12z isn't as bad as people make it out to be. If anything, I think the 240h from the ECM has two similarities to the GFS 12z 240h

ECM 12z 240h

GFS 12z 240h

Notice the heights from North Canada joining up to the artic high and a low off Newfouland on ECM and GFS (Albeit, positions of lows and highs are a little different). The similarities are there - these two things can play a part in increasing blocking over Greenland.

Of course, all this will chnage in next run as it is FL (Anything after 72h, I'm considering FL in this very uncertain time!). So, whats the point of analysing this then? Just to prove the point that, perhaps, we are getting some kinda of agreement between some of the models.

~mpkio2~

November 2, 2016

Well, it's 2nd of November (My B-Day! ), and already I can feel a difference in temps! And according to the modles, a colder N/E wind direction is currently predicted to be with us to at least mid-next week!

No need to be downcast yet, coldies! It's not even winter yet and already we're getting predictions like this!!!

Bring it ON!!!!

October 25, 2016

And so the hunt for D10 on ECm begins yet again!

I think the 12z suite of models this afternoon demonstrate how quickly the models change; how they all have the ability to pick up a signal, drop it and then come back to it again.

I also believe that patience will be required this season and well-leveled-headedness. The models are gonna swish and flip and flop all over, but sitting back and waiting might be key.

Keep chins up cold lovers; we're in a btter position for cold weather this winter than we have been in a long time!

October 20, 2016

44 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I'm hoping that my October Fog Index theory goes tights up this winter, as yet again I have had zero fog this month which usually means another snow less winter if you believe in weather lore, it has been correct the past three winters.

If the GFS is anything to go by, you migth still see fog this October! High Pressure is espected to be sitting right over the UK which promotes cold and foggy nights (You might be sleeping so you might not see it). Also, High Pressure has been all over the UK this October.

October 17, 2016

9 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Huge snowfall in Scandinavia over the weekend. Also, big increase in the ice-cap - looks like it's touching Siberia??

Many a pixel for Scotland tomorrow if the METO is correct?

This is very good news. Actually, the news I've been waiting for...about snow in Scandi.

There's a theory that snowfall in Scandi in October and then the rapid melting of it can lead to -AO during the Winter and may lead North West Europe into the freezer.

It occured in 2009, 2010 and 2012.

I watch with bated brethe...

October 7, 2016

Well, its time for me (And many on here!) to come out of my Summer hibernation!

Hopes for Winter 2016/2017?

After the horrible (Mild) couple of winters we've had to endure, I'm hoping for at least two weeks (Occuring around Mid-December) of snow, cold, ice, the whole shi-bang to happen. Even a bit of mist and fog will beat last Winter, no problem, and thats saying something!

So yeah, I'm with the majority who are hoping for a cold and snowy winter.

Looking at all sypnoptics for a cold winter, we have the follwing (So far- current of 7th Oct 2016):
-Low Solar Activy? Check!
-Advancing Eurasia Snow Cover? Check! (Needs to advance 60N)
-More Active Hurricane Season? Check! (Thoughts with the people of Hiati!)
-ENSO - Netural, but on "Weak LaNina side - Enhances more blocking!
-QBO? Doing something strange - Still in wQBO - Slowily going into eQBO though!
-Strat? Well not cold yet, but will rapidly cooling down during October and November.
-NAO? Exspected not to be as active as the last couple of winters!

Currently, the AO has gone negative and, as the brillant @StevenMurr has been alluding to, is something which corelates to a "blocked" winter. I have this quote from the "Model Forecasting Forum" which yet expands on the October -AO theory:

blizzard81:
Absolutely. Many of our harsh winters have been preceded by blocked Octobers - the Octobers of 46, 62, 78, 85, 09 to name just a few :-)

^^^^^We all know what happenened in those Winters, don't we?

Anyway, lets just wait and see! It's gonna be a hell of a roller-coaster ride, no doubt!

~mpkio2~

October 7, 2016

W

April 1, 2016

14 hours ago, knocker said:

Literally, that 11-15d period GFS op image above is like a smack in the face for all winter-lovers!

I just hope it doesn't come to frutition. Nothing but cool temps and rain.

March 5, 2016

25 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I'm afraid that is just poor. We should be looking at this and see what the consequences if any, to aid our understanding of future SSW events.

Should look beyond just looking for cold and snow.

Oh don;t get me wrong; I completly understand the importance of further research and observations on cutrrent weather-patterns that are currently unfolding (Or will unfold in the future to come,) and how it affects are weather. I'm just stating why there is the lack of comments on the SSW at the moment.

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